2012 NFL Preview: 68 Offensive and Defensive Rookies Competing to Start Week 1

With the NBA season winding down, and the doldrums of summer baseball almost upon us (yuck), NFL training camps lurk on the horizon, providing a beacon of hope for our football-starved bodies.

In the wake of the 2012 Draft, coaches across the nation are evaluating their new weapons and figuring out how best to utilize them. Among the draft class, there are sure to be early-round picks who disappoint, but there are just as certain to be late-rounders who emerge from anonymity to become contributors.

Amidst the shuffling and rebuilding of NFL rosters this offseason, many rookies will be counted on to expedite their NFL learning curve and play right out of the gate.

Here are the 68 (non-special-teams) rookies competing for starting jobs in Week 1.

Honorable Mentions

These dark horses just missed the cut, but they have all impressed in their respective camps, and could be surprise starters this season:

DE Frank Alexander (CAR)

CB Dwight Bentley (DET)

WR Travis Benjamin (CLE)

OL Tom Bergstrom (OAK)

DT Josh Chapman (IND)

WR T.J. Graham (BUF)

OL Joe Looney (SF)

Indianapolis Colts: QB Andrew Luck (R1, 1)

Competition: Drew Stanton

Week 1 Starting Probability: 99%

In an ironic twist, the Colts released Peyton Manning and drafted a young man touted as "the most complete quarterback prospect since Peyton Manning."

And much like his renowned predecessor, Luck is expected to walk in as a rookie and be handed the reins to the first-team offense from day one. Trial by fire.

Even if the Colts were partial to easing Luck into the position, they don't appear to have the resources to do so. Only uninspiring former second-rounder Drew Stanton and fellow rookies Chandler Harnish (Round 7, N. Illinois) and Trevor Vittatoe (Undrafted, UTEP) join him on the quarterback depth chart.

Early reports from camp have been predictably glowing for Luck, whom coach Chuck Pagano recently described as "off the charts in terms of football IQ."

Washington Redskins: QB Robert Griffin III (R1, 2)

Competition: Rex Grossman

Week 1 Starting Probability: 98%

Mike Shanahan declared Griffin the starter instantly, and he has taken control of the first-team offense since arriving to OTAs.

The only reason his starting chances are lower than Luck's 99 percent is out of respect for the oft-maligned Rex Grossman, who doesn't get the credit he deserves for a solid 2011 season.

But it's clear that barring injury or a catastrophically bad preseason, the future is now for RGIII in Washington.

Teammates are already referring to the cannon that rests below his right shoulder simply as "The Arm."

They can't articulate another way to describe the ease with which he flicks 70-yard bombs.

Sports Illustrated's Don Banks noticed that the Skins are already tailoring their offense around Griffin's strengths by implementing a rollout-centric scheme. As Banks noted, Griffin is occasionally timid from the pocket, but when he "throws on the run, he's deadly accurate, even when he's rolling left and throwing against his body."

Jilted incumbent Rex Grossman is even smitten with the high-socked marvel who snatched his job away, comparing the way the ball comes out of Griffin's hands to a whip.

If there's a single person in America who doesn't love this guy, I haven't met him yet. 

Cleveland Browns: RB Trent Richardson (R1, 3)

Competition: Brandon Jackson, Montario Hardesty

Week 1 Starting Probability: 98%

Cleveland's camp has showered nothing but effusive praise on Richardson so far.

The organization, media and city as a whole already dote upon their new running back as if he were the second coming of Jim Brown himself.

According to the National Football Post, "the name 'Adrian Peterson' came up in the Browns offices when they were evaluating Richardson." Browns beat writer Nate Ulrich has conceded the immediate dawn of the Richardson era as well, calling the rookie "a lock to start and become a workhorse" right out of the gate.

Waiting in the wings behind him are Brandon Jackson and Montario Hardesty, two backs who have proven effective when they've been healthy enough to play. But it's clear the Browns see something special in Richardson, and nothing on his tape suggests that his college production was a mirage.

He could easily finish top 10 in the league in touches this season.

Minnesota Vikings: LT Matt Kalil (R1, 4)

Competition: DeMarcus Love

Week 1 Starting Probability: 99%

Kalil was the consensus top tackle in the draft, providing the Vikings with hopeful stability at a position that has plagued them since the demise of Bryant McKinnie.

The USC product enters with not just the pedigree of being a Trojan, but also of being the younger brother of Ryan Kalil, who starts at center in Carolina.

Kalil didn't allow a single sack in 2012, which made the Vikings moon-eyed, seeing him as a guy who could protect the backside of QB Christian Ponder, in whom they have invested so much. 

The only man in his way is ponderous DeMarcus Love, a former sixth-rounder who is coming off knee surgery. It shouldn't take much for Kalil to beat him out and start from day one. 

Jacksonville Jaguars: WR Justin Blackmon (R1, 5)

Competition: Laurent Robinson, Mike Thomas, Lee Evans

Week 1 Starting Probability: 90%

Justin Blackmon's NFL career couldn't have gotten off to a much rockier start, and he hasn't even taken a live snap yet.

The Jaguars took him despite minor character concerns in the wake of his 2010 DUI incident (which led to a one-game suspension), concerns he augmented by promptly getting busted with another DUI on June 3.

Blackmon certainly has some growing up to do, but there is some good news. ESPN's Christ Mortensen reports that the precocious wide receiver is unlikely to face a suspension for the incident, since there were "no extenuating circumstances in this instance."

Prior to his headline-stealing arrest, Blackmon was making news with his impressive performances at OTAs. Even without full pads, LB Paul Posluszny recognized that Jacksonville's new receiver glides around the field "like an absolute stud."

The Jags made another upgrade to their receiving corps this offseason, bringing in Laurent Robinson on the heels of his breakout campaign in Dallas last season.

This move should allow Blackmon to play the Z receiver, rather than the X. The Z calls for more possession routes, which is tailored perfectly to Blackmon's skill-set; it's the same position Roddy White played in new coach Mike Mularkey's system.

Blackmon needs to beat out Mike Thomas and Lee Evans for his spot, but so long as his legal troubles don't come back to haunt him, he's a safe bet to line up at the Z in Week 1.

Dallas Cowboys: CB Morris Claiborne (R1, 6)

Competition: Brandon Carr, Michael Jenkins

Week 1 Starting Probability: 85%

Jerry Jones has likened his new cornerback to Deion Sanders, and like Primetime himself, Morris Claiborne has already displayed a couple flashes of cocksureness.

It started at the NFL Combine, where Claiborne scored a 4 on the Wonderlic Test.

The test has proven to be a shaky predictor of NFL success, but the real story came from Claiborne's pronouncement that he "only finished 15 or 18" of the 80 questions, owing to the Wonderlic's lack of football-related subject matter.

"I looked at the test, and wasn't any questions about football." Claiborne declared, "I didn't see no point in the test. I'm not in school anymore. I didn't complete it."

But despite his reticence to participate in every facet of the draft process, there's no denying the type of talented, shutdown-caliber cornerback Claiborne is.

The Cowboys have turned a position of perpetual weakness into one of strength this offseason, also acquiring the highly impressive Brandon Carr from Kansas City.

There will be pressure on Claiborne from incumbent Mike Jenkins, but the Cowboys have already revealed their intention to teach Jenkins the slot, paving a way into the starting lineup for their newest toy.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: SS Mark Barron (R1, 7)

Competition: Cody Grimm

Week 1 Starting Probability: 98%

Desperate for help in the secondary, the Bucs were rumored to have strong interest in Morris Claiborne.

But post-draft reports claim that it was Barron, and not the LSU cornerback, who Tampa Bay had rated as their top defender. The smoke they blew about Claiborne was, however, enough to bait Jerry Jones into trading one spot ahead of them.

In Barron, the Bucs get a physical, in-the-box safety who should immediately improve their hapless defense.

Converted cornerback Ronde Barber is lining up next to Barron at free safety, and his elite ball skills should allow Barron to focus more on stuffing the run in his rookie season.

There's very little behind Barron, whose only competition is former seventh-rounder Cody Grimm. Grimm outperformed his draft position when he was able to see the field, but he's recovering from a torn MCL, which compounds the already-significant talent difference between him and Barron.

Barron is an Andrew Luck-level lock to start from day one.

Miami Dolphins: QB Ryan Tannehill (R1, 8)

Competition: Matt Moore, David Garrard

Week 1 Starting Probability: 10%

Tannehill's stock was probably the most capricious in the 2012 draft class. He started underrated. Then he was overrated. Then he was so overrated that he was actually underrated.

It's weird to watch a prospect—particularly a quarterback—shoot from relative anonymity to consensus top-ten pick without skepticism, but Tannehill was a hot commodity for a reason. The converted wide receiver has Jake Locker athleticism with a more accurate arm.

But he's got his work cut out for him if he wants to start Week 1.

Matt Moore turned a corner down the stretch in 2011, and owner Steve Ross predicted he would start the season under center. But he also told the Palm Beach Post that there is indeed a "big competition for the quarterback slot."

If it counts for anything, advanced talent scout running back Reggie Bush threw his support to the rookie, saying that he definitely “has the upper hand.”

Much of Tannehill’s perceived “upper hand” comes from his familiarity with the system. New Dolphins offensive coordinator Mike Sherman was his Head Coach at Texas A&M.

The rookie is in a rare situation where he has more knowledge of the playbook than the veterans do.

In the end, Tannehill will get a shot to usurp the starting job, but the odds won’t be in his favor—all indications point to the Dolphins preferring to ease him into things. As it stands now, he's seeing even fewer first-team reps than newly-acquired David Garrard.

It would be an upset if he didn’t start at some point this season, but there’s a good chance it won’t be Week 1.

Carolina Panthers: OLB Luke Kuechly (R1, 9)

Competition: Thomas Davis

Week 1 Starting Probability: 95%

The record-breaking tackling machine from Boston College will begin his NFL career on the weak side, with Jon Beason retaining his spot in the middle. Beason is coming off an Achilles injury, however, so there's a chance Luke Kuechly will learn how to play the MIKE too.

Assuming everyone is healthy, Kuechly's competition will be longtime Panther Thomas Davis. The peripatetic veteran from Georgia has seen time at all three linebacker positions and safety since being drafted 14th overall in 2005.

Davis has been productive when healthy, but he's currently recovering from his third—that's right, his third—torn ACL in his right knee.

Dr. James Andrews gave a very positive report on whatever remains of Davis' knee, but he's a long shot to keep his job from Kuechly. The rookie comes into the league as one of the most polished college linebackers ever.

If he's not a plug-and-play contributor, nobody is.

Buffalo Bills: CB Stephon Gilmore (R1, 10)

Competition: Leodis McKelvin

Week 1 Starting Probability: 85%

Gilmore shot up draft boards this offseason, jettisoning Dre Kirkpatrick from his spot as the consensus second-best cornerback.

He's been turning heads since joining the Bills' revamped defense too, earning the praise of Chan Gailey by intercepting three passes in four practices.

Per Rotoworld.com, he also caught the eye of ESPN's John Clayton, who called him "one of the most impressive rookies at rookie camps across the league." Clayton also reiterated GM Buddy Nix's assertion that Gilmore is expected to match up against Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez when the Bills face off with the Patriots.

In order to find a starting spot, however, Gilmore will have to beat out former first-rounder Leodis McKelvin.

McKelvin was in Gilmore's spot a few seasons ago, when he was the highly-touted rookie pushing for immediate playing time. And while he's been inconsistent since joining the league, he's got great physical tools and the Bills plan on giving him a shot to keep the starting job.

If Gilmore wants to start Week 1, he'll have to earn it––nothing will be handed to him.

But in the end, the polished rookie from South Carolina should have what it takes to unseat McKelvin, who has already started his gradual transition to playing slot.

Kansas City Chiefs: NT Dontari Poe (R1, 11)

Competition: Jerrell Powe

Week 1 Starting Potential: 80%

Poe was 2012's annual "Combine Darling," improving his stock by doing 44 reps on the bench press, and running a 4.98 forty-yard dash...at 346 pounds.

Now Poe has to prove that he isn't the next Mike Mamula, and that he's more than just a bunch of numbers.

Kansas City immeidately inserted him into the starting lineup, where he, Glenn Dorsey and Tyson Jackson will have a first-rounder ménage à trois for the Chiefs.

Add a W to Poe's last name and you get his competition, second-year Jerrell Powe.

Powe was one of the best nose tackle prospects in the 2011 draft going into his senior year at Ole Miss, but a lackluster season and weight concerns saw him plummet to the sixth round.

Chiefs GM Scott Pioli reported that Powe came into camp fit and ready to go, but he's hard to count on.

The Chiefs would prefer to bring Poe – who's a bit of a project – along slowly, but he's already far ahead of his competitor, which gives him a good chance of starting Week 1.

Philadelphia Eagles: DT Fletcher Cox (R1, 12)

Competition: Mike Patterson, Antonio Dixon

Week 1 Starting Probability: 50%

The Eagles were ecstatic to see Cox slide out of the top ten, and made an aggressive move to trade up and get the man they coveted. Andy Reid figured Cox'd be a sure-fire top seven pick.

In drafting Cox, the Eagles get the draft's premier interior pass rusher. He's an impressive athlete for a man his size too, as he's capable of kicking out and playing end if needed.

The Eagles have an embarrassment of wide-nine edge rushers already, though, which means Cox's future should be alongside fellow interior wrecking ball Cullen Jenkins.

Cox is guaranteed to see plenty of snaps in the Eagles' defensive line rotation, but whether or not he starts is a different story.

Philly rotates their linemen as much as any team in the league, which makes being the "starter" little more than a title. Plus, Cox has to overtake veteran Mike Patterson and run-stuffer Antonio Dixon on the depth chart.

Patterson is the tentative favorite to start next to Jenkins, but the other two have a chance.

Dixon is recovering from a tricep tear that ended a disappointing 2011 season, but he claims he's healthy, which makes him an intriguing option. His run-stopping ability could be vital on early downs, and it could keep Cox fresh to come in on obvious passing downs.

The thought of Trent Cole, Jason Babin, Cullen Jenkins and a well-rested Fletcher Cox rushing the passer on third down is downright scary. And that's probably how the season will start for the Birds.

Arizona Cardinals: WR Michael Floyd (R1, 13)

Competition: Andre Roberts, Early Doucet

Week 1 Starting Probability: 75%

Floyd has got to have mixed feeling about going to Arizona.

On the one hand, he couldn't have asked for a better mentor than Larry Fitzgerald, a consummate professional with a similar musculature to the Notre Dame product. There's also feeble competition for the starting receiver role opposite Fitz.

But on the other hand, the Cardinals have one of the league's most unstable quarterback situations, where neither Kevin Kolb nor John Skelton inspire a great deal of confidence.

Either way, Floyd can't complain about the opportunity to take first-team reps as a rookie, and in Arizona he is tentatively expected to start from day one.

But even if he's technically running with the ones, beat writer Darren Urban suggests that he's more likely to "be part of the group rather than a breakout guy as a rookie."

And that's not to say he'll even be with the ones on paper. Coach Ken Whisenhunt is notorious for making rookies prove themselves, and sounded particularly stern after the pick, saying "Michael Floyd hasn't done one thing in this league as a player."

It'll be an open competition between Floyd, Andre Roberts and Early Doucet––two veterans of the Cardinals system.

In the end, Floyd projects better to the outside, whereas Roberts and Doucet are both tailored for the inside, which should give him a slight edge.

St. Louis Rams: DT Michael Brockers (R1, 14)

Competition: Trevor Laws

Week 1 Starting Probability: 75%

According to Yahoo! Sports' Mike Silver, the Rams were prepared to draft Michael Brockers at No. 6 before trading back—which, if true, makes their maneuvering all the more impressive.

They got the player they wanted in Round One, and turned the Cowboys second-rounder into Steven Jackson's heir apparent (Isaiah Pead) and a massive offensive line project with upside (Rokevious Watkins).

Brockers will join free-agent acquisitions Kendall Langford and Trevor Laws on a revamped defensive interior. The Rams aren't nearly as weak in the A-gap as they were last season.

Langford is the safest bet out of the three to start Week 1, as the 26-year old signed a pricey four-year deal this offseason. Laws in an underrated player who didn't fit Jim Washburn's wide-nine scheme in Philly, but he's a very good run-stuffer.

Brockers will have his work cut out for him if he wants to start, but he does have a talent edge over Laws. It's no sure thing, but he'll probably get the nod.

New York Jets: DE Quinton Coples (R1, 16)

Competition: Mike DeVito, Jay Richardson

Week 1 Starting Probability: 85%

The Jets are shaping their defensive scheme around the addition of Coples, as they plan to play more 4-3 in 2012.

Defensive coordinator Mike Pettine is making a concerted effort to get his best eleven players on the field, so logically he thinks that it "makes sense to use four true defensive linemen."

Coples is a blessed physical specimen, who attacks relentlessly off the edge. There was speculation that he might be converted to linebacker, but while Rex Ryan conceded he was athletic enough to pull that off, he declared "that's not what we brought him here to do."

He shouldn't have too hard a time beating out Mike DeVito (who might move inside) and Jay Richardson. There's a good chance he'll open the season opposite his former teammate Muhammed Wilkerson on the edge.

Side note – Quinton, I'm talking directly to you now: Get this thing removed from your arm. It gives me the creeps.

Cincinnati Bengals: CB Dre Kirkpatrick (R1, 17)

Competition: Leon Hall, Terence Newman

Week 1 Starting Probability: 60%

The last of the "elite" cornerbacks, Kirkpatrick was drafted as an insurance policy for Leon Hall and Nate Clements. Hall is recovering from a torn Achilles, while Clements' $5.5 million cap number makes him a potential cap casualty.

In Kirkpatrick the Bengals are getting one of the anchors of Alabama's stout, championship-winning defense.

He's got elite coverage skills, and was viewed by many as one of the safest picks in the draft—you don't know you're getting a Pro Bowler, but you're definitely getting a starter.

Leon Hall expects to be ready by training camp, but the PUP list is still an option, and a likely one, for the start of the season. Even if Hall's not ready, Kirkpatrick would still need to beat out former first-round picks Terence Newman, Jason Allen and Pacman Jones.

That's right––the Bengals have six first round cornerbacks on their roster.

As things stand right now, the most likely scenario sees Kirkpatrick starting opposite Clements, with Hall missing the first few weeks and Newman in the slot. When Hall is healthy, it'll be interesting to see how they shuffle the deck.

But in what's rapidly turned into a passing league, this is a good problem for the Bengals to have.

San Diego Chargers: OLB Melvin Ingram (R1, 18)

Competition: Jarret Johnson, Larry English

Week 1 Starting Probability: 30%

According to the National Football Post, the Chargers plan to move Ingram all over the field, hoping that he "becomes the type of defender that offenses have to identify pre-snap."

But primarily, Ingram will be an outside linebacker.

The position is a little crowded in San Diego following the acquisition of free agent Jarret Johnson. He's likely to line up weak-side, while veteran Shaun Phillips – coming off a down year – is still a safe bet to play the strong side.

Ingram has a chance to overtake either one of them with a stellar training camp, but the odds don't seem to be stacked in his favor. He'll still get plenty of playing time, and should post a respectable rookie sack total.

Just don't expect him to do it as a starter.

Chicago Bears: DE Shea McClellin (R1, 19)

Competition: Israel Idonije

Week 1 Starting Probability: 35%

If the Boise State product wants to begin his career starting opposite Julius Peppers, he'll have to unseat the position's massive incumbent, Israel Idonije.

But the Bears are insanely high on McClellin, so don't count him out.

McClellin fell into a nice situation, going to a competitive team that needs situational pass rushers. He also gets to learn from one of the best of all-time, as Julius Peppers is sure to take the 22-year old under his wing, and groom him to be his successor.

And as things stand now, McClellin is impressing coaches while working behind Idonije at left end. He's already in line for significant nickel pass-rushing snaps too, an area the Bears struggled in last season.

Tennessee Titans: WR Kendall Wright (R1, 20)

Competition: Nate Washington, Lavelle Hawkins

Week 1 Starting Probability: 40%

The Titans have moved Kendall Wright all over the place in OTAs, trying to figure out exactly what they drafted.

After initially working in Kenny Britt's X position, Terry McCormick reported that they started teaching Wright the Z and F spots, too.

Wright, who was Robert Griffin's top weapon at Baylor last season, has been the star of Titans training camp despite all the different spots he's learned.

Beat writer Jim Wyatt gushed about Wright after watching two practices, saying he stood out over every other Titans player. He also mentioned that Matt Hasselbeck—normally reserved in heaping praise on his young teammates—raved about his new weapon when prompted.

It remains to be seen, however, which position he will eventually be best suited for.

He's capable of playing outside, but he's also capable of manning the slot. Nate Washington, on the other hand, is far better suited to the outside.

There's a good chance Wright could start as the No. 3 receiver, although he's sure to see plenty of action either way.

New England Patriots: DE/OLB Chandler Jones (R1, 21)

Competition: Trevor Scott, Jonathan Fanene, Brandon Deaderick

Week 1 Starting Probability: 60%

Jones is expected to be a stalwart of the Patriots' defense moving forward, but how much can be expected from the 22-year-old in his first season?

Even the most bullish of Jones' supporters admit that he's a project.

Mike Mayock brazenly prognosticated that "three years from now...Chandler Jones is the best defensive player to come out of this draft."

Operative words: Three years from now.

The Pats see Jones eventually mastering the "elephant" position––Belichek's unique lineman-linebacker hybrid made famous by Willie McGinest.

But that position requires an acute feel for opposing offenses, and the type of field awareness that only comes with experience.

So for 2012 purposes, Jones will likely line up as a more traditional right end. If the season began today, he would probably be the starter opposite newly-acquired Trevor Scott.

But with a player as raw as Jones, there's always a chance he could play himself out of a Week 1 job.

Cleveland Browns: QB Brandon Weeden (R1, 22)

Competition: Colt McCoy, Seneca Wallace

Week 1 Starting Probability: 85%

Given Weeden's advanced age, it came as no surprise that Mike Holmgren called him "as prepared to to come in and start as a rookie as any quarterback I’ve seen in a long time."

Unlike most late first-round quarterbacks, Weeden appears to be on a fast track to be named the starter before the start of training camp.

Coach Pat Shurmur hinted that he would prefer to have a starter in place "sooner than later," before likening the Browns' situation to the Sam Bradford—A.J. Feeley competition he managed in St. Louis.

"[Bradford] had a pretty good year his first year," Shurmur added, giving further credence to the belief that Weeden is the overwhelming favorite.

The News-Herald's Jeff Schudel noted that despite Colt McCoy's superior performance on the last day of minicamp, over the course of the week it became "clear to reporters on the sideline noting every pass and every drop [that] Weeden outperformed McCoy."

It's still a competition, but the Browns have a clear agenda here. Weeden would have to fall flat on his face during the preseason to lose the job before Week 1.

Detroit Lions: RT Riley Reiff (R1, 23)

Competition: Gosder Cherilus

Week 1 Starting Probability: 50%

Reiff's future with the Lions appears to be at left tackle, but it's unclear what they plan to do with him in 2012.

He worked as the second-team left tackle at OTAs, but Jeff Backus' job on the left is far more secure than Gosder Cherilus' job on the right. It's still early, but Scott Linehan admitted that "Where [Reiff] ends up this year really hasn't been determined yet."

That should be enough to let Cherilus know to watch his back.

Reiff is the superior talent here, and Iowa usually produces polished, NFL-ready linemen. Reiff-Cherilus should be one of the best rookie-veteran training camp battles in the league.

Pittsburgh Steelers: RG David DeCastro (R1, 24)

Competition: Trai Essex

Week 1 Starting Probability: 95%

The Steelers finally took to the draft to improve their creaky offensive line this offseason, drafting DeCastro in the first round and Ohio State tackle Mike Adams (more on him later) in the second.

DeCastro is a rugged, downhill interior blocker. Upon DeCastro's drafting, Mike Mayock called him "a natural Pittsburgh Steeler" before declaring him "a plug-and-play guard." 

DeCastro's presence can finally put an end to the Trai Essex era. To Steelers fans' chagrin, Essex started 24 games over the past three seasons, with awful results.

He's now signed on as a swing reserve lineman.

New England Patriots: OLB Dont'a Hightower (R1, 25)

Competition: Rob Ninkovich

Week 1 Starting Probability: 80%

By the time it's all said and done, Hightower might have the highest college/professional winning percentage of all-time. Seriously, he gets to go from Alabama to the Patriots? That's like playing for Kentucky and the Spurs, or going from ER to Ocean's Eleven.

Hightower is a big, physical warrior who captained the Crimson Tide to the National Championship last year. He could play in the middle if the situation called for it, but for now he projects as a strong-side linebacker.

The incumbent Rob Ninkovich had a decent season in 2011, but he was, perforce, overused in a thin linebacker rotation.

Hightower is a good bet to take his starting spot, which should allow him to stay fresh on passing downs, and continue his strong play into the postseason.

Houston Texans: OLB Whitney Mercilus (R1, 26)

Competition: Brooks Reed

Week 1 Starting Probability: 50%

Mercilus had a breakout season at Illinois last season, but he has big shoes to fill in Houston following the departure of Mario Williams.

Unlike Williams, however, Mercilus is actually better suited to play 3-4 linebacker than 4-3 end. He's a pure pass-rushing specialist that should be a useful addition to one of the league's most improved units.

He's drawn good reviews from teammates and coaches alike thus far, with captain Antonio Smith lauding his quickness and explosiveness.

He'll be locked in a battle with Brooks Reed during training camp, and from where we currently stand, it appears to be a close one.

Cincinnati Bengals: RG Kevin Zeitler (R1, 27)

Competition: Clint Bowling

Week 1 Starting Probability: 92%

The Bengals opened up their offseason activities with Zeitler as the first-team right guard, and it would be shocking to see him relinquish that position.

A big, mauling guard from Wisconsin, Zeitler was part of one of college football's most dominant rushing attacks.

Venerable draft guru Greg Cosell compared Zeitler favorably to 24th pick David DeCastro, calling him "the more athletic and more complete guard prospect."

The Bengals also have little to no competitive depth at guard. Zeitler will be battling former fourth-rounder Clint Boling, who started at right guard against San Francisco last season, and was benched after one drive.

Advantage, rookie.

Green Bay Packers: OLB Nick Perry (R1, 28)

Competition: Erik Walden

Week 1 Starting Probability: 90%

Nick Perry led the Pac-12 in sacks last season, despite one NFL scout maintaining that "Perry was [a] 30 percent-70 percent" player. That is, Perry wreaked havoc on a power conference—and he did it without even trying.

Perry was assumed to take over for the incumbent Erik Walden as the right outside linebacker. Walden graded out as the league's worst 3-4 linebacker in 2011, as well as the league's worst run defender at the position.

But Perry worked on the left side for two straight practices, a position that's currently occupied by Clay Matthews (in case you haven't heard, he's pretty good).

Still, speculation says that Perry is more likely to start on the left, with Matthews moving to the right, than he is to start on the bench, with Walden on the field.

Minnesota Vikings: FS Harrison Smith (R1, 29)

Competition: Jamarca Sanford

Week 1 Starting Probability: 95%

There may not be a position in the league more barren than Vikings safety, where Jamarca Sanford was counted on for 15 starts last season.

Enter Harrison Smith.

The Notre Dame product is poised to step in and immediately improve the Vikings' secondary. He took reps with the first time right out of the gate, with the jolted Sanford rotating reps at strong safety opposite him.

Smith's other competition is fellow Notre Dame rookie Robert Blanton, who is making the transition from cornerback. Leslie Frazier cautions us not to rule Blanton out, but Smith's position should be safe.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: RB Doug Martin (R1, 31)

Competition: LeGarrette Blount

Week 1 Starting Probability: 40%

Ultra-productive in college, Doug Martin is locked in one the league's most intriguing training camp battles this offseason, as he tries to displace bruising incumbent LeGarrette Blount.

Many beat writers are giving Martin the early edge, including Roy Cummings, who lauded the rookie as being "more versatile than Blount and [not having] the problems holding on to the ball that Blount does."

But the newly-svelte (alright..svelter) Blount won't relinquish his job without putting up a fight. He's been taking most of the first-team reps at training camp, and he's looked as good as usual.

New coach Greg Schiano loves to run the ball, and he likes having both thunder and lightning in the backfield––lest we forget the Ray Rich-Brian Leonard tandem he employed at Rutgers.

This is a fun battle to watch and debate, but in the end it will probably be inconsequential–each back will see a similar number of touches each game. Look for Blount to start and Martin to play on passing downs, similar to the old Brandon Jacobs–Ahmad Bradshaw tandems.

St. Louis Rams: WR Brian Quick – (R2, 33)

Competition: Brandon Gibson, Danny Amendola, Steve Smith

Week 1 Starting Probability: 60%

The Rams' selection of the long, athletic Quick was derided as a "reach" by the talking heads when he was drafted, but he could actually end up being the draft's biggest steal.

Pundits are skeptical of his small-school pedigree, coming out of Appalachian State, but he's no more stunted than any other college receiver who played in a spread offense.

Greg Cosell praised Quick as a better athlete than Justin Blackmon, and predicted that "has a chance to be the best wide receiver in this draft class. I know some teams saw him that way."

Jeff Fisher doesn't plan to ease the FCS rookie into NFL action either, confirming that the Rams "expect him to play and be a big part of our offense."

He'll have decent competition from a trio of Philadelphia Eagles castoffs—Brandon Gibson, Danny Amendola and Steve Smith—but Quick has the highest upside in the group, and a legitimate chance of starting Week 1.

Indianapolis Colts: TE Coby Fleener (R2, 34)

Competition: Dwayne Allen

Week 1 Starting Probability: 40%

The end of the Peyton Manning era in Indianapolis also spelled doom for one of his favorite targets, Dallas Clark.

In the midst of large-scale rebuilding around Andrew Luck, the Colts made a shrewd move by replacing Manning's long-time safety net with Fleener––the man who acted as Luck's safety net at Stanford.

Like Clark, Fleener is a pure receiving tight end, who is likely to struggle with blocking. The Colts, however, also drafted Dwayne Allen – the draft's other top tight end – at the start of the third round. Allen is a capable receiving threat, but he's a far more accomplished blocker than Fleener.

Which brings us to a complicated question: Which one of them starts?

The Colts opened camp with Allen, the third-rounder, starting over Fleener, the second-rounder. This isn't too big a shock since, again, Alllen's blocking ability makes him an asset on running downs.

Coach Chuck Pagano confirmed that their strategy here is derivative of the Patriots, and that they plan on employing a multiplicity of two-tight-end sets. So in the end, the "starter" role may be just a title; both players will play starter snaps every game.

But technically, Allen is the tentative first-stringer.

Baltimore Ravens: OLB Courtney Upshaw (R2, 35)

Competition: Sergio Kindle, Albert McClellan

Week 1 Starting Probability: 90%

Upshaw was in good shape to start before Terrell Suggs' season-ending injury.

Now, it's all but a lock.

No longer having to push Paul Kruger on the strong side, Upshaw is now poised to fill the massive hole created by the loss of last year's top defenseman.

Upshaw's comparison to Suggs will make for an interesting case study: Both players were considered surefire first-rounders, but fell to the Ravens in the early second after disappointing combines.

Suggs was taken under Ray Lewis' didactic wing, and became a perennial All-Pro under his tutelage. Now we'll get to see if he can pass the torch down to another generation.

Denver Broncos: DT Derek Wolfe (R2, 36)

Competition: Justin Bannan, Kevin Vickerson

Week 1 Starting Probability: 60%

New defensive coordinator Jack Del Rio was unemployed when he started scouting Wolfe. With Del Rio in between jobs and working as a coach at the Senior Bowl, Wolfe caught his eye with his work ethic and relentlessness.

And when the Broncos hired Del Rio, he worked hard to convince them to take his Senior Bowl crush.

"This is the kind of guy that Pittsburgh takes, and he plays for the next 10 years." Del Rio said, when the Broncos worried that Wolfe might be a tweener, "They had a guy like that who just retired (in reference to Aaron Smith)."

But Wolfe's tweener status makes his initial role with the Broncos a little tough to define.

The Broncos might prefer him at end, where he'd be hard pressed to unseat Elvis Dumervil or Robert Ayers at the top of the depth chart. But the Broncos are also weak up the middle, where Wolfe's main competitors would be Justin Bannan and Kevin Vickerson.

If the Broncos want to start their best eleven players on the defensive side of the ball, Wolfe will be in the Week 1 lineup.

Cleveland Browns: RT Mitchell Schwartz (R2, 37)

Competition: Oniel Cousins

Week 1 Starting Probability: 90%

Schwartz wasn't the sexiest pick of the draft, but he filled a glaring need.

In the former Cal Bear, the Browns get a solid tackle whom Greg Cosell called an "efficient and dependable pass protector...competitive and tough snap after snap."

The road to a Week 1 start doesn't get much easier for a second-round pick, as the Browns' only suitable alternative at right tackle is Oniel Cousins, whom they claimed off waivers last August.

Joe Thomas is one of the game's best tackles, and his mentorship could be a vital piece of Schwartz's development. And college teammate Alex Mack is the Browns' starting center, which should allow Schwartz to get into an early comfort zone.

Schwartz couldn't have asked for a better unit with which to begin his career.

Jacksonville Jaguars: DE Andre Branch (R2, 38)

Competition: Austen Lane, George Selvie

Week 1 Starting Probability: 40%

Branch certainly was candid about his abilities after the Jaguars drafted him, telling reporters "I feel like I can't be blocked one-on-one." Apparently, Jacksonville felt the same way.

He has Austen Lane ahead of him on the depth chart, who could be a little harder to unseat than he looks. The former fifth-rounder is a darling of the Jags' coaching staff, whom defensive line coach Joe Cullen is expecting "to take a major step forward this season."

But Branch has been impressive in offseason activities, and recently began rotating with Lane, taking first-team snaps opposite Jeremy Mincey.

The odds are always stacked slightly in the veteran's favor in contests this close, but it's a battle worth keeping an eye on.

St. Louis Rams: CB Janoris Jenkins (R2, 39)

Competition: Trumaine Johnson, Bradley Fletcher

Week 1 Starting Probability: 80%

The Rams made radical improvements to their secondary this offseason, acquiring Cortland Finnegan from the Titans and drafting two of the highest-upside corners in the draft.

Jenkins, along with fellow rookie Trumaine Johnson, may have some question marks, but they both have the potential to turn into difference-makers.

Jenkins' story is well-documented. On talent and game tape alone, he should have been a top-15 pick. During his time at Florida, he impressed with his shutdown coverage of players like A.J. Green, Julio Jones and Alshon Jeffrey.

But off-field character concerns forced him to unceremoniously transfer from Florida to North Alabama, where he finished his collegiate career.

Even so, the Rams rolled the dice, and also picked up small-school corner Trumaine Johnson, whom they would have considered at No. 39 had Jenkins been unavailable.

The two rookies will battle one another for the starting job opposite Finnegan, and while Jenkins' enormous talent is the favorite to win out, Johnson is a dark horse candidate, and stands waiting in the wings should Jenkins squander his opportunity.

Carolina Panthers: Amini Silatolu (R2, 40)

Competition: Mike Pollak

Week 1 Starting Probability: 65%

Silatolu has a small-school pedigree, coming from Midwestern State (how is that a state?), but the Panthers are hoping he can come in and start right away. He's already been working as the first-team left guard, replacing the recently released Travelle Wharton. 

While Silatolu has the current upper hand, however, there's a tenured starter waiting in the wings should he falter. Former second-rounder Mike Pollak—starter of 41 games the past four season in Indianapolis—provides a veteran presence should the rookie look overwhelmed.

Pollak is a weak run blocker, however, so the Panthers would love to see Silatolu seize his opportunity. But Silatolu's been a little slow picking up the playbook, and the speed of the NFL may catch him off-guard.

There's a decent chance the Panthers—who intend to compete in 2012—might choose to start with the veteran over him.

Buffalo Bills: LT Cordy Glenn (R2, 41)

Competition: Chris Hairston

Week 1 Starting Probability: 80%

The Bills lost another left tackle to the Eagles this offseason, as Demetress Bell moved to Philadelphia to replace injured former Bill Jason Peters.

In Bell's place, the Bill's hope to insert Georgia rookie Cordy Glenn, a projected guard whom GM Buddy Nix is convinced can slide over to tackle.

"The Senior Bowl really capped it off for us," Nix told Buffalobills.com, "They played him everywhere down there. That’s where people saw him at guard because he hadn’t played there since 2010. But he was able to hold his own against the best at the Senior Bowl at left tackle. It convinced us.”

So far, so good. There's only so much you can tell without full contact, but Glenn has looked fluid while taking every single rep with the first-team offense.

2011 fourth-rounder Chris Hairston is the team's alternative option. Buddy Nix gave him a tepid vote of confidence before the draft, saying he thought the team could win with Hairston, before conceding that he's not the "prettiest foot athlete."

It sure looks like the future is now for Glenn in Buffalo.

Miami Dolphins: RT Jonathan Martin (R2, 42)

Competition: Lydon Murtha

Week 1 Starting Probability: 75%

Martin was a polarizing prospect to evaluate.

He fit the Stanford system well, proficiently protecting Andrew Luck's blind side, and keeping his uniform as clean as possible.

But the Stanford offense was tailored around short drops and quick releases. Even when Martin messed up, the ball was out before it could do any damage.

Greg Cosell noted this phenomenon, and focused his scouting on Martin's performance against USC's Nick Perry (the 28th overall pick). Cosell said that on some plays Martin stoned Perry, but other times "he clearly struggled against the hand speed of Perry, and the quickness of Perry."

Either way, he's a talented, intriguing prospect who doesn't have stiff competition to start at right tackle from day one in Miami. The only man standing in his way is Lydon Murtha, who is recovering from a season-ending concussion.

Marc Colombo was a disaster on the right side for the Dolphins last season, so either one will be an improvement.

For Martin, the chance to learn from left tackle Jake Long should help him put his raw talent together and earn him the job.

New York Jets: WR Stephen Hill (R2, 43)

Competition: Chaz Schillens

Week 1 Starting Probability: 85%

The Jets reworked their passing game the past few years, parting ways with Jerricho Cotchery, Braylon Edwards and Plaxico Burress. This led New Yorkers to anxiously speculate about the Jets' interest in big-bodied Alshon Jeffrey––exactly the type of "sexy" prospect that Jet fans salivate over.

So it was no surprise that the fans were a little indignant when the Jets took a big-bodied receiver who wasn't named Alshon Jeffery. Stephen Hill...welcome to New York!

Okay, I'm exaggerating a little bit. Many Jet fans initially preferred Jeffery, but they were happy to see the team address the wide receiver position instead of taking something more boring like a lineman.

And the more they did their research on Hill, the more they realized what a savvy pick he was.

Hill has dazzled since suiting up in green and white. He stood out at the first practice of rookie camp, and has already rapidly ascended to the starting role opposite Santonio Holmes. 

He's an impressive height-weight-speed combination, who could produce the way New York expected Braylon Edwards to when they traded for him. With Chaz Schillens his only competition for the spot, prospects look good for the rookie.

Kansas City Chiefs: LG Jeff Allen (R2, 44)

Competition: Ryan Lilja

Week 1 Starting Probability: 15%

Allen wasn't one of 2012's "big name" linemen, but he's been praised by two of the game's most respected writers.

Greg Cosell lauded his consistency, saying he was "one of those really solid players." Meanwhile, Michael Lombardi included the 44th overall pick on his "All-Value Team" following the draft––the highest-picked inclusion. 

Allen played tackle in college, but with Brandon Albert and Eric Winston on the outside, the Chiefs see him as Ryan Lilja's heir apparent at left guard.

It isn't out of the realm of possibility for Allen to assert himself and take the starting job in 2012, but Lilja should have at least one more season left with the ones, as the rookie learns his new position.

Chicago Bears: WR Alshon Jeffery (R2, 45)

Competition: Devin Hester, Earl Bennett

Week 1 Starting Probability: 35%

One of the biggest risk-reward prospects in the 2012 class, Jeffery enamors scouts with his measurements and his sure, aggressive hands.

But he also infuriates them with his inconsistent game tape.

Bears WR coach Daryl Drake felt his hands were too good to pass up, citing them as the best of any wide receiver in the draft. Greg Cosell conceded how impressive Jeffery's hands were too—before subsequently excoriating him for his disappointing game tape, and playing "slow in 2011."

Chicago's lack of a true No. 2 receiver opposite Brandon Marshall was thought to make Jeffery a good bet to start from day one.

But the Bears' intransigent attempt to make Devin Hester a high level pass-catcher could slow his progress down.

Dan Pompei of the Chicago Tribune says that he "would be stunned if Jeffery were a day one starter" before adding that "he is not a finished product and my suspicion is it will take him a while to get up to snuff."

Philadelphia Eagles: OLB Mychal Kendricks (R2, 46)

Competition: Jamar Chaney, Casey Matthews

Week 1 Starting Probability: 85%

Kendricks, the Pac-12 defensive player of the year, is a quick, rangy linebacker.

His ability to get from sideline to sideline and cover receivers makes him a valuable commodity, especially in today's pass-happy NFL.

Much ado was made over the Eagles crumbling under egos and expectations in 2011—how else could you explain such a talented team limping to an 8-8 finish?

But the truth is, the Eagles didn't underachieve because of the pressure. They underachieved because their defense stunk. And their defense stunk because their linebackers really stunk.

The Eagles fortified the middle with the addition of DeMeco Ryans, and Kendricks is poised to help improve the defense as the starting strong-side 'backer. 

He'll have solid competition from the tough Jamar Chaney, but Chaney could also learn to play on the weak side, where he'd have an easier time unseating undersized Brian Rolle.

Seattle Seahawks: ILB Bobby Wagner (R2, 47)

Competition: Barrett Ruud

Week 1 Starting Probability: 75%

The small-school linebacker from Utah State has seized the opportunity that Barrett Ruud's rehab provided him.

He's already been inserted as the first-team middle linebacker, and he's also assumed play-calling duties from K.J. Wright.

Wagner has elite speed for the position, which Pete Carroll has always valued on the defensive side of the ball.

"Bobby's going to get a heck of a chance." Caroll said when asked who would start at middle linebacker, "We want to see him. We'd love to get that speed on the field if we could. It's rare to find a linebacker that runs that fast."

Ruud provides stiff competition, as he's been tasked with starting in the middle of a defense before, and provides stability that Wagner can't guarantee.

But the Seahawks have never had a problem giving young guys a chance, so Wagner's speed could ensure him an opening-week start.

New England Patriots: FS Tavon Wilson (R2, 48)

Competition: Steve Gregory

Week 1 Starting Probability: 20%

Were it done by anybody other than Bill Belichek, this selection would hold the fate of the responsible party's job in the balance.

As it stands, Belichek's job will be rightfully safe regardless of how Wilson pans out. But that doesn't mean he hasn't been met with the requisite skepticism and vitriol after the draft's most curious reach.

"Few teams, if any, considered Wilson draftable, never mind assigning him a second-round grade." divulged SI.com's Tom Verducci. 

But Belichek has a penchant for over-drafting players with whom he's enamored, and Wilson has the size and positional versatility that is commonplace for a Patriot defender. 

He'll compete with newly-acquired Steven Gregory, a veteran who served primarily as a reserve in San Diego before being thrusted into the starting lineup 13 times in 2011.

Gregory's experience and Wilson's alleged inability to contribute right out of the gate makes the veteran a heavy favorite to start Week 1.

San Diego Chargers: DE Kendall Reyes (R2, 49)

Competition: Vaughn Martin, Jacques Cesaire

Week 1 Starting Probability: 45%

Reyes is a relatively unheralded prospect from Connecticut, whom Greg Cosell praised as athletic and versatile.

While he's not a finished product, the Chargers have a serious need at defensive end across from Cory Liuget.

Reyes' stiffest competition for starting duties will most likely be Vaughn Martin, a former fourth-rounder from Canada whom the San Diego coaches are keen on. Martin is athletic, but he's also relatively raw. He's also coming back from offseason ankle surgery.

Reyes will be given every chance to win the job for Week 1.

Green Bay Packers: DE Jerel Worthy (R2, 51)

Competition: Ryan Pickett, Jarius Wynn, Anthony Hargrove

Week 1 Starting Probability: 65%

Worthy was considered a high first-round pick coming into the 2011 season, but worries about his capricious work ethic saw his stock fall into the mid-second round.

Green Bay was enamored with his overt physical talents, however, and traded up to draft a man who could become one the draft's biggest (literally and figuratively) steals.

Thought to be a 4-3 tackle prospect, Green Bay sees enough speed in Worthy to make him a 3-4 end. With B.J. Raji next to him, he'll surely see fewer blockers than he was used to in college, which should allow him to play with more consistency.

He admitted that he took plays off in college—and hey, the first step to overcoming a problem is admitting you have one, right?

Worthy's path to a starting job was made easier when newly-signed Anthony Hargrave was hit with an eight-game suspension for his role in the New Orleans bounty program. Ryan Pickett and Jarius Wynn are veterans in the Packers' system, but Worthy has a far higher ceiling than either of them.

If he gets his head on straight, he could open up the season on the Packers' front line.

Tennessee Titans: OLB Zach Brown (R2, 52)

Competition: Will Witherspoon

Week 1 Starting Probability: 20%

When it's time to mark down the final depth chart, Brown is hoping that the Titans' coaching staff will Keep Him in Mind.

The speedy linebacker from North Carolina was another one of the draft's most polarizing players, enamoring some with his athletic quickness, and repelling others with what was deemed "soft" game tape.

Among his backbiters are Mike Mayock (who called him "allergic to contact"), Josh Norris (who nicknamed him "pillow hands") and Greg Cosell, (who labeled him an "avoid-contact player").

But the Titans are confident that they can help Brown overcome his contact-phobia and take advantage of his unique skills. He has already seen some action with the Titans' first-team defense, albeit in the excused absence of presumed starter Will Witherspon.

Brown might have to sit behind the venerated veteran at first, but his time will come.

Atlanta Falcons: RG Peter Konz (R2, 55)

Competition: Vince Manuwai

Week 1 Starting Probability: 70%

Konz was valued by Atlanta for his position versatility. Although he projects as their long-term solution at center, he will start his career at right guard, next to veteran Todd McClure.

Konz is a tough, rugged run blocker—he's exactly what you'd expect from a WIsconsin Badger. He was a predicted first-rounder who was expected to go in the first round. ESPN's Mel Kiper said that "he has no peers in the draft" in comparison to other centers.

Right guard was a problematic position for Atlanta in 2011, prompting them to go out and sign veteran Vince Manuwai. He should provide stout competition for Konz, and he's definitely a good fall-back option if Konz takes longer than thought to develop.

But the Falcons wouldn't be teaching him right guard if they didn't want him to start sooner rather than later. He's the tentative favorite to take the job.

Pittsburgh Steelers: LT Mike Adams (R2, 56)

Competition: Marcus Gilbert

Week 1 Starting Probability: 95%

Adams was one of the most physically gifted linemen to came out of 2011. According to Greg Cosell he was both the most athletic tackle in the draft and graded out "very impressive on film as both pass and run blocker."

A failed drug test, and the subsequent character concerns, caused his drop to the second round, but the Steelers are confident that their estimable organization can keep the first-round talent in check.

Pittsburgh has been notoriously, almost comically, weak on the offensive line in recent memory, a flaw that probably cost them at least one Super Bowl title.

Along with first-rounder David DeCastro, Adams provides a youth infusion that is expected to fortify their leaky protection, and keep Big Ben healthy for 16 games.

Also, the Steelers are considering moving Marcus Gilber, Adams' main competition, over to right tackle, which would leave the path to starting even clearer for the young Ohio State product.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: OLB Lavonte David (R2, 58)

Competition: Adam Hayward, Rennie Curran

Week 1 Starting Probability: 85%

Rennie Curran ran with the ones at weak-side linebacker at the first OTAs, but David has already overtaken him and doesn't plan on looking back.

David was one of the nation's top linebackers last year for Nebraska, and was a darling of many scouts during the draft process too. Greg Cosell lauded his explosive sideline-to-sideline playmaking ability, while predicting that he would start from day one.

Greg Schiano's weak-side backer led his Rutgers team in tackling last season, making the explosive rookie a good bet to rack up big tackle numbers right off the bat.

Baltimore Ravens: LG Kelechi Osemele (R2, 60)

Competition: Bobbie Williams, Jah Reid

Week 1 Starting Probability: 40%

The Ravens were unable to re-sign the steady Ben Grubbs this offseason, opening up a royal rumble for the left guard position in 2012.

They nabbed Osemele, a massive tackle from Iowa State, in the late second round, with the intention of having him kick inside and compete.

They also toyed with the idea of starting Jah Reid at left guard, but his offseason snaps have been seen behind Bryant McKinnie at right tackle. As insurance, they then went out and got veteran Bobbie Williams, who started with the Bengals last season.

So where does that leave us? Osemele is the tentative favorite, but he's had a hard time staying on the field this offseason, which has slowed his ascent.

I'd handicap the contest as 45-35-20, for Osemele, Williams, and Reid, respectively.

Indianapolis Colts: TE Dwayne Allen (R3, 64)

Competition: Coby Fleener

Week 1 Starting Probability: 60%

See Slide 32: Fleener, Coby

St. Louis Rams: CB Trumaine Johnson (R3, 65)

Competition: Janoris Jenkins

Week 1 Starting Probability: 20%

See Slide 37: Jenkins, Janoris

Minnesota Vikings: CB Josh Robinson (R3, 66)

Competition: Chris Cook, Chris Carr

Week 1 Starting Probability: 40%

Like first-rounder Harrison Smith, Robinson could be asked to play immediately in the Vikings' porous secondary. 

A relatively unknown prospect from Central Florida, Robinson made a big impression on the Vikings staff with the fastest "official" forty time at the Combine.

Coach Leslie Frazier already confirmed that the speedster isn't just a threat for punt returns and rotational coverage.

"Not just the nickel position," Frazier told the Minnesota Star-Tribune, "We want him to compete for a starting job."

He's got Chris Cook and Chris Carr in his way on the depth chart. Carr excelled in the slot for Baltimore, but he's probably better served there than on the outside. Cook, meanwhile, spent the last ten games inactive last season, while facing domestic assault charges. He's not exactly a sure bet to walk right in and be forgiven by the Vikings' brass.

Robinson could easily pull an upset and win this spot. 

San Diego Chargers: SS Brandon Taylor (R3, 73)

Competition: Atari Bigby

Week 1 Starting Probability: 40%

Taylor was a less heralded member of LSU's vaunted secondary last season, playing alongside Morris Claiborne and Tyrann "Honeybadger" Mathieu.

But the Chargers saw enough from him to give him a crack at breaking camp with their first team.

GM A.J. Smith referred to Taylor as "a guy who was targeted" by the team, before saying that "if he's not gone in the second, we're not going to be waiting at 16 twiddling our thumbs. We're making our move."

His only real competition for a starting job is former Packer, and noted predator-hairstyle enthusiast, Atari Bigby. The veteran opened camp working with the first team over Taylor, but the competition should be a stiff one.

LSU players are usually smarter and more physically advanced than most rookies, so Taylor's rawness shouldn't get in his way.

Seattle Seahawks: QB Russell Wilson (R3, 75)

Competition: Matt Flynn, Tavaris Jackson

Week 1 Starting Probability: 20%

Perhaps the most polarizing player in this year's draft, Wilson was highly coveted by the Seahawks despite his 5'11'' frame––a measurement that "had him [completely] off the draft boards of a few teams."

Still, there's a lot to like about the athletic Wilson, who turned down a lucrative career in professional baseball to pursue his dream of playing in the NFL.

His height is a detriment, sure, but he's learned how to master the craft of contriving new throwing lanes.

"He is the closest player I’ve done to Drew Brees and Jeff Garcia in terms of sliding, finding lanes and creating for himself,” Seattle general manager John Schneider said of Wilson. “He can slide and he has quick eyes. From an accuracy, anticipation standpoint, he is the closest to Drew Brees."

Out of the gate, he is already splitting reps evenly with incumbent Tavaris Jackson and newly-acquired Matt Flynn, the latter of whom signed on to, presumably, become the new quarterback of the future.

Coach Pete Caroll vows that he's giving all three players an even shot to win the job, but Wilson is the unlikeliest of the three to get the ball in Week 1.

But then again, it wouldn't be the first time Wilson's defied the odds.

Houston Texans: RG Brandon Brooks (R3, 76)

Competition: Antoine Caldwell

Week 1 Starting Probability: 50%

The Texans plan on giving Brooks—the largest offensive lineman OC Rick Dennison has ever coached—a shot at running (or galumphing) with the ones this season.

When asked about his chances of starting over Antoine Caldwell, Gary Kubiak told Houstontexans.com "No doubt, I think it’s going to be very competitive."

But Brooks, whose massive weight already raised questions, irked his coach by showing up to the June minicamp overweight, demonstrating a lack of discipline and professionalism that could cost him his shot at the job.

Working in his favor is the fact that Caldwell isn't a particularly impressive competitor, which should allow him to get back in Gary Kubiak's good graces. This one is pretty much a toss-up.

New York Jets: ILB Demario Davis (R3, 77)

Competition: Bart Scott, David Harris

Week 1 Starting Probability: 10%

The competition is fierce, with veterans Bart Scott and David Harris ahead—but speedy linebacker Demario Davis has been turning heads in the Jets' camp.

He was so impressive in fact, that ESPN's Rich Cimini offered a message to Bart Scott: "You'd better be on your game when camp opens." According to Adam Caplan, one NFL executive also mentioned that he could see Davis starting for the Jets for the next 8-10 seasons.

The road will be hard, and it's unlikely Davis will crack the lineup by Week 1 (if at all, this season), but he's a guy worth keeping an eye on.

Chicago Bears: SS Brandon Hardin (R3, 79)

Competition: Major Wright

Week 1 Starting Probability: 50%

Hardin's draft stock tumbled after injuries cost him most of his 2011 season, but when healthy, he's one of the most imposing defensive presences in the class.

He's got the size to stop the run, and the requisite size-athleticism combo needed to guard the new breed of NFL tight ends.

He has the ability move around the secondary, but the Bears plan to start him at strong safety, where he will compete with incumbent Major Wright for the starting job. Wright is a solid, but underwhelming player, whose job security is tenuous at best.

A lot of this will rest on Hardin's health, but it's essentially a toss-up.

Cincinnati Bengals: WR Mohamed Sanu (R3, 83)

Competition: Armon Binns, Marvin Jones

Week 1 Starting Probability: 75%

For the second straight year, the Bengals recognized a glaring need at one of their receiver spots. And for the second straight year, they turned to the draft to fix it.

Mohamed Sanu and Marvin Jones both come into camp with a realistic—if not likely—chance of lining up opposite sophomore sensation A.J. Green in Week 1.

A.J. Green sees a lot of himself in Sanu, saying that "A lot of people have questioned his speed, but the guy has ‘football speed.’  It’s just like myself." He added "He's going to be a special one."

The physical Rutgers product has impressed Jay Gruden as well, prompting his coordinator to say "He just has a natural instinct to be a big, friendly target; he knows what he has to do to get open."

Sanu is the tentative favorite to start the season with the ones, but don't discount fellow rookie Marvin Jones, a polished product out of Cal who shined at the Senior Bowl and Combine. Si.com's Tony Pauline listed him as one of the draft's biggest steals.

Cleveland Browns: DT John Hughes (R3, 87)

Competition: Scott Paxson, Billy Winn

Week 1 Starting Potential: 30%

With Phil Taylor (torn pectoral) expected to open the season on the PUP list, rookie defensive tackles John Hughes and Billy Winn both have a legitimate shot to open camp with the first team.

According to Cleveland.com, the Browns have been impressed with both of their late-round tackles, and divulged that they see Hughes as somebody who could immediately step in and contribute on the defensive front.

Winn, meanwhile, slipped all the way to the sixth round, despite receiving a third round grade from ESPN's Todd McShay and Pro Football Weekly's Nolan Nawrocki.

Veteran Scott Paxson is currently running with the ones, alongside Ahtyba Rubin, but both rookies could easily leapfrog him with an impressive camp. 

Arizona Cardinals: RT Bobby Massie (R4, 112)

Competition: Jeremy Bridges

Week 1 Starting Probability: 50%

A big-time prospect coming out of high school, Massie started at right tackle for three years at Ole Miss.

He was widely considered a second-round talent, who the Cardinals managed to snag in the fourth round because he didn't improve enough technically in college. 

But the Cardinals still plan to give him every chance to start in Week 1, at a right tackle position where they have a gaping hole. Massie is currently working on the second team behind veteran Jeremy Bridges, but Ken Whisenhunt says he "is looking forward to seeing him compete for [Bridges'] spot." 

Sources close to the team tell CBSsports.com's Rob Rang that the Cardinals plan to give Massie every chance possible to win the starting job, and his undervalued talent makes him a good bet to do just that. 

Minnesota Vikings: FB Rhett Ellison (R4, 128)

Competition: Jerome Felton

Week 1 Starting Probability: 90%

A polished H-back prospect in the mold of Jim Kleinsasser, Ellison is expected to step in and contribute immediately for the woeful Vikings' offense.

Mike Mayock claims that the USC offense last year "ran through Rhett Ellison," showing that he is much more than just your average fullback.

At camp, Mike Wobschall reported that Ellison had "as good a few days as anyone" before lauding him for being "a fluid route runner and smooth pass catcher."

He's a safe bet to start the season in the Vikings' lineup.

Carolina Panthers: CB Josh Norman (R5, 143)

Competition: Captain Munnerlyn, Brandon Hogan, Darius Butler

Week 1 Starting Probability: 50%

Norman, an unheralded rookie from Coastal Carolina, has been the talk of Panthers' camp, with ESPN.com's Pat Yasinskas suggesting that he could very well open the season in the starting lineup.

Per Yasinskas, the coaches, along with veteran Steve Smith, have been "raving" about Norman's abilities.

He appears to have already jumped Brandon Hogan and Darius Butler on the depth chart, and doesn't face the stiffest competition in the world going against Captain Munnerlyn.

He's one of the biggest rookie dark horses in the draft class, and could very well start opposite Chris Gamble in Week 1.

Atlanta Falcons: FB Bradie Ewing (R5, 157)

Competition: Mike Cox

Week 1 Starting Probability: 99%

The selection of Ewing spelled the end for veteran Ovie Mughelli, whom the Falcons released shortly after the draft.

With that transaction, all indications point toward the rugged Wisconsin lead blocker opening the season in the backfield with Michael Turner.

Ewing is a prototypical Badger: he's strong, gritty, and relentless. He spent the past few seasons paving holes for Monte Ball and the vaunted Wisconsin ground attack, and he should be a good fit in another running-oriented scheme.

Cincinnati Bengals: WR Marvin Jones (R5, 166)

Competition: Armon Binns, Mohamed Sanu

Week 1 Starting Probability: 15%

See Slide 61: Sanu, Mohamed

Cleveland Browns: DT Billy Winn (R6, 205)

Competition: Scott Paxson, John Hughes

Week 1 Starting Probability: 20%

See Slide 62: Hughes, John