Breaking Down Which of MLB's Surprise Contenders Are for Real

It's easy to get excited or discouraged about the state of your favorite baseball team in June, and this year, we've seen no shortage of surprise teams shoot to the top of the standings.

Did you envision the Los Angeles Dodgers leading the NL West? How about the Baltimore Orioles only sitting a game out of first place in the AL East?

Thus, the question must be asked: Which surprise teams are serious contenders, and which are simply early season pretenders?

Let's find out.

Baltimore Orioles

It's probably irrelevant whether or not the Baltimore Orioles are for real. Stuck in baseball's strongest division, the AL East, the Orioles remain a long shot to make the playoffs. 

The Tampa Bay Rays and New York Yankees remain the favorites in the division, the Toronto Blue Jays are a very solid team and I don't think we've heard the last of the Boston Red Sox just yet.

But the Orioles shouldn't just disappear. Adam Jones has been a revelation (.300, 17 home runs, 37 RBI), the starting pitching has been better than advertised and the Orioles have shown the ability to win games late.

If the magic in Baltimore doesn't dissipate over the course of the season, the Orioles may be able to sneak into one of the two wild-card spots. But for now, I think a playoff berth for Baltimore remains a long shot.

Verdict: Pretender

Chicago White Sox

Currently atop the AL Central by a half-game, the White Sox have ridden a strong offense and the arms of Jake Peavy and Chris Sale to a 33-27 mark.

For the White Sox—and really, all of the teams in the AL Central—the question is whether or not they can hold off the Detroit Tigers if the Motown boys get hot this summer.

The key for Chicago will be players like Adam Dunn (.226, 20 home runs, 46 RBI), Alex Rios (.299, six home runs, 32 RBI) and A.J. Pierzynski (.288, 10 home runs, 38 RBI) maintaining their solid offensive starts. We know Paul Konerko will hit, but if the above three stay hot, the White Sox may be able to survive a shaky rotation once you get past Peavy and Sale.

It's a big if, and the Tigers will catch fire soon enough. I'm not sold on the White Sox just yet.

Verdict: Pretender

Cleveland Indians

Jason Kipnis has arrived.

The young second baseman is enjoying a breakout season, hitting .285 with 10 home runs, 39 RBI and 15 stolen bases. Alongside Asdrubal Cabrera, Carlos Santana, Shin-Soo Choo and Michael Brantey, Kipnis headlines a very solid core in Cleveland.

Chris Perez and his 20 saves have been huge at the end of games, and though Justin Masterson (4.76 ERA) and Ubaldo Jimenez (4.91 ERA) give up more runs than one would like from top-of-the-rotation options, they each have the potential to round into form over the second half.

I think the Indians are still a year away from being major contenders. If they could get Grady Sizemore healthy for once and find a bit more stability in the rotation, I think they'll be very scary moving forward. But I don't think that will happen this season.

Verdict: Pretender

Washington Nationals

They lead baseball in team ERA (2.98) and are third in total strikeouts (500).

As long as that pace continues, they're contenders—it's really that simple.

The Philadelphia Phillies may always be lauded for their Big Three, but Stephen Strasburg, Gio Gonzalez and Jordan Zimmermann have all been fantastic this year, with Strasburg and Gonzalez legitimate Cy Young candidates.

And let's not forget about Edwin Jackson or Ross Detwiler either, as good of fourth and fifth starters as there are right now in baseball.

The offense hasn't been as productive as the team would probably hope for—chalk that up to Jayson Werth's injury and a struggling Ryan Zimmerman—but Ian Desmond and Adam LaRoche have been bright spots.

It doesn't matter—if the pitching remains this strong, the Nationals are perfectly capable of winning the NL East.

Verdict: Contenders

Pittsburgh Pirates

Ladies and gentlemen, the Pirates are 32-27 and tied with the Cincinnati Reds atop the NL Central. Who saw that coming?

Nobody—that's who. But will it last?

If the pitching holds up, it's possible. While the Pirates have a fairly dreadful offense outside of Andrew McCutchen, the bullpen has been nothing short of brilliant this year. Jason Grill (1.50 ERA, 15 holds) and Juan Cruz (2.08 ERA, 11 holds) have been fantastic, and Joel Hanrahan (2.63 ERA, 17 saves) has shut the door.

In addition, James McDonald has been excellent as the team's ace this year (5-2, 2.39 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 73 strikeouts). Veterans Erik Bedard and A.J. Burnett have been solid in the rotation as well, and there's no question it has been pitching that has ruled the day in Pittsburgh.

But ultimately, this team doesn't hit enough to be a true threat. At some point, the bullpen will wear out and the Pirates will start losing the close games. There is hope in Pittsburgh, but not enough for this year.

Verdict: Pretender

Los Angeles Dodgers

Nobody expected the Dodgers to make a run to the playoffs this year. Though the team is full of promise, the team was expected to make its move in a year or so.

But in a wide-open NL West, why can't the Dodgers be players this year?

Truthfully, they can and will be. They already have the best record in baseball (39-22), arguably the best player in baseball (the injured Matt Kemp, though Josh Hamilton admittedly has been better this season) and the best young pitcher in baseball (Clayton Kershaw).

Plus, the pitching has been excellent in general. They boast a solid bullpen, a surprise starter in Chris Capuano, and solid veterans in Chad Billingsley and Aaron Harang to round out a very strong rotation this season.

Not to mention Andre Ethier and his torrid first half of the season (.292, 10 home runs, 52 RBI).

The San Francisco Giants and Arizona Diamondbacks will make this a race. But the Dodgers have enough talent to win the West this year.

Verdict: Contender

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