French Open 2012: Perfect Draw Will Lead Rafael Nadal to 7th Roland Garros Title
After winning the French Open in six of the past seven years, world No. 2 Rafael Nadal entered this year's Grand Slam tournament at Roland Garros as the favorite to win once again. Based on the way the draw has broken down for him, those early suspicions certainly seem as though they were correct.
Nadal has faced a couple of capable clay-court players over the past two rounds in Nicolas Almagro and Juan Monaco, but he has never been in any real danger as he has yet to drop a set. Possible threats like Milos Raonic and Janko Tipsarevic were eliminated before he had to play them, so Rafa has cruised.
He will meet fellow Spaniard David Ferrer in the semifinals, and although Ferrer is an extremely good player on clay, he simply doesn't compare to Nadal. Ferrer ousted world No. 4 Andy Murray, and although clay isn't exactly Murray's best surface, he had the skill set necessary to at least give Nadal a challenge.
Nadal lucked out in many ways because both No. 1 Novak Djokovic and No. 3 Roger Federer ended up on the other side of the draw. Conventional wisdom says that Rafa should have had to play
Fed in the semis, but things broke Nadal's way in that regard. If Nadal can take care of Ferrer, then there is a chance he could enter the finals having played the minimum amount of sets required to make it that far.
There is no question that Nadal is in incredible physical condition and that he can handle a marathon match perhaps better than anyone, but every player would rather enter the finals with some reserves left in the tank rather than having played a marathon match or two. Nadal should be quite fresh in the finals, while his opponent may be on his last legs.
Djokovic and Federer will play in the other semifinal and they always put each other through a lot. There is a very good chance that the match will go five sets and if that weren't enough, both players were challenged in the previous round as well. Djokovic got all he could handle from Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in five sets, and the same was true of Federer against Juan Martin Del Potro.
Whichever player emerges from that match will obviously have a chance against Nadal since they are two of the best in the world, but they'll be at a huge disadvantage. Nadal is one of the best clay-court players ever and holds a career record of 50-1 at Roland Garros. On top of that, he will be fairly well rested in comparison to either Djoker or Fed.
Had Nadal been placed in the same draw as Federer, then things could be totally different. Then it would have been Djokovic who may have breezed into the finals while Nadal had to battle it out with Federer just to make it. You never know how a different draw might have changed things, but it is quite clear that everything has gone right for Rafa thus far.
Nadal simply has to win the matches that are placed in front of him, but when you're as good as he is things always seem to work out. This year's French Open has been a great example of that, and I believe it will lead to him becoming a seven-time champion at Roland Garros.
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