Drafting Mark Appel: Pittsburgh Pirates Have Seen This Movie Before

The year was 2008, and the Pittsburgh Pirates were trying to come back from an abyss, with the second overall pick of the draft, when they signed a temperamental high-risk, high reward prospect named Pedro Alvarez. He was a Scott Boras client, and commanded the largest signing bonus paid up to that time, $6.4 million.

In 2012, the same Pirates drafted Mark Appel, a temperamental high-risk, high reward pitcher, also a client of Scott Boras.The 2011 Pirates were decidedly better than the 2007 Pirates, so they got the eighth overall pick of the draft in 2012, rather than second.

But given their proclivity for selecting high-impact pitchers with the second and first overall picks of the 2010 and 2011 drafts, the Bucs probably would have selected Appel even with the first or second pick of the 2012 draft, had they had one of these. With a higher draft "slot," they would have had more money to spend to sign him.

While the two players are different in many ways, they share certain issues regarding "signability" and attitude, so I'm going to infer analogies between Alvarez and Appel. That's because "I know of no way of judging the future except by the past," to quote Patrick Henry.

Alvarez is no bust but also isn't quite the superstar that the Pirates had hoped. He has one decided strength, home run power, but is deficient in several other areas: batting average, walking propensity, and fielding ability.

Alvarez is seen as a potential contributor on an offensively anemic team, but on the other hand, he's no all-around player like Andrew McCutchen. On the whole, the Bucs are probably pleased to have him, but probably wished that they hadn't paid so much for him, and may consider him a disappointment for a first round pick.

Appel doesn't figure to be a bust either, but he also will probably fail to live up to the hype. For one thing, the Pirates may have a problem signing him. It will probably be enough in the interest of both parties for this to happen, but it will be a squeaker, as with Alvarez.

Appel's selling points is that his fast ball and curve ball is advanced for a college player, and that he has a slider which may need work, but is also good for a non-professional. This speaks to a high level of talent, but the problem is that he, like Alvarez, may have such a high opinion of himself that he won't get a lot better.

A stint in the minors accentuated both Alvarez's strengths AND weaknesses, and Appel may have a similar experience. He'll probably come to the majors with some strong pitches, and some weak pitches, which may make him a middle, not front, of rotation caliber starter.

It's a truism that (apart from Andrew McCutchen), many of the Pirates' recent stars were originally question marks, at least on their original teams. This is particularly true of members of the (imported) rotation: AJ Burnett, Erik Bedard, James Mc Donald, Charlie Morton, and Jeff Karstens.

On the other hand, some obvious "stars" turned out not so well; at least after they left the Pirates: Nate McLouth, Xavier Nady, even Jason Bay.

It seems to be the nature of things, that as philosopher Francis Bacon noted, "if we begin with certainties, we shall end in doubts, but if we begin with doubts... we shall end with certainties."

So take the draft of Mark Appel for what it likely was: a solid pick, but no cure all for the Pirates' problems. And have the team look elsewhere for what they need, such as better hitting. That's why the conversion of Stetson Allie into a batter may be an interesting idea.