NBA Mock Draft 2012: Projected Lottery Landing Spots for Top College Stars
We have a pretty good idea of where this draft's top college star will land, but Anthony Davis' peers continue to pose some interesting questions.
There's almost nothing certain about this draft's second-overall pick, or any of ones coming after it.
But, we do know a few things about what teams need, and the league's best prospects have begun to differentiate themselves thanks to workouts and scouting reports. June 28's draft will answer these questions officially, but there's no reason we can't start taking our best guesses.
Who will round out the lottery?
Here's a complete first-round mock that attempts to answer just that.
1. New Orleans Hornets: Anthony Davis, PF (Kentucky)
There's very little to say about Anthony Davis that hasn't been said already. He's the most complete defensive package we've seen come through the draft in some time, and he has the physical tools to become a superstar as his shot comes along.
2. Charlotte Bobcats: Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, SF (Kentucky)
While there isn't much controversy surrounding the first-overall pick, things could get pretty interesting immediately thereafter. On the one hand, the Bobcats could opt to move their premium pick in order to acquire additional selections or some veteran talent.
If the Bobcats stay put though, Kidd-Gilchrist has too much upside to ignore. He's already one of the best all-around athletes in the draft, and his defensive impact could soon be supplemented by an improved shooting ability.
3. Washington Wizards: Thomas Robinson, PF (Kansas)
If MKG is still around, it's hard to imagine the Wizards not biting. But the more likely scenario involves Washington taking Robinson, a 21-year-old power forward whose maturity and toughness make him a potential game-changer for a struggling young club.
Robinson will fight hard in the paint, but he's also a better shooter than most prospects at the power forward position. John Wall has done pretty well for himself in his first two seasons, but he could use a sidekick like Robinson rounding out a lineup with Nene and Jordan Crawford.
4. Cleveland Cavaliers: Bradley Beal, SG (Florida)
Beal might be too redundant with Jordan Crawford to get much attention from the Wizards. But it's conceivable he could go to the Bobcats (or, perhaps a team acquiring the Bobcats' pick). He probably makes the most sense with the Cavaliers, who need a starting shooting guard who can take some of the scoring burden away from Rookie of the Year point guard Kyrie Irving.
Beal is already a more versatile scorer than virtually everyone on Cleveland's roster, except Irving. He'd instantly bring the rebuilding franchise one of the best backcourts in the league.
5. Sacramento Kings: Harrison Barnes, SF (North Carolina)
Whatever Barnes lacks in upside, he makes up for with his sound technique and mature understanding of the game. The 20-year-old has good size for a small forward at 6'8" and makes a compelling case for consideration as the best wing prospect in the draft.
He may not have MKG's heart or Beal's versatility, but he may be the safest bet of all—certainly safer than the Kings' best alternative: Andre Drummond. The center from UConn would do wonders for Sacramento's interior defense, but he's also a gamble this club may want to avoid.
6. Portland Trail Blazers (from Brooklyn Nets): Andre Drummond, C (UConn)
Portland is in a better position to assume the risks associated with Drummond. The team needs a legitimate center to replace Marcus Camby and allow LaMarcus Aldridge to remain at the 4.
7. Golden State Warriors: Perry Jones III, PF (Baylor)
Jones had another impressive season with Baylor, but he never lived up to the dominant potential some expected to see from him at the NCAA level. He may be changing some minds in team workouts thanks to his versatility and continued development.
Either way, he's the kind of guy who would be a top-five pick in most drafts, and the Warriors could have a legitimate superstar on their hands if Jones figures everything out.
8. Toronto Raptors: Jeremy Lamb, SG (UConn)
The 20-year-old Lamb is a few pounds of muscle away from being an above-average wing scorer in the NBA. It's still too soon to tell if he'll ever be much more than that, but he's got the shooting ability and physical tools to become an all-star.
9. Detroit Pistons: Terrence Jones, SF (Kentucky)
Jones may not be the kind of dominant scorer or imposing big man who's attracting the most attention in the lottery, but he just might be the most multidimensional guy in the whole draft. He's more of a facilitator and defender than he is just another shooter on the wing.
10. New Orleans Hornets (via Minnesota Timberwolves): Damian Lillard, PG (Weber State)
The Hornets will presumably revitalize their interior rotation with their first-overall selection. That likely leaves point guard as the next area of need. Jarrett Jack could use a young understudy, and Lillard would be a marked upgrade over in-house options like Greivis Vasquez.
11. Portland Trail Blazers: Kendall Marshall, PG (North Carolina)
Portland will almost certainly look for a veteran to help replace free agent Raymond Felton, but that doesn't mean the club wouldn't also like to bring in a rookie for the long haul. Unless the Trail Blazers somehow land a star like Deron Williams or Steve Nash, a pass-first guard like Marshall could see fairly regular minutes early on.
12. Milwaukee Bucks: Tyler Zeller, C (North Carolina)
Zeller just might make a team feel pretty bad about taking Andre Drummond ahead of him. He may not have Drummond's all-star potential, but he's also a more proven commodity. The 22-year-old senior was instrumental to UNC's success and would be a good start to replacing Andrew Bogut in the middle.
13. Phoenix Suns: Austin Rivers, G (Duke)
If Rivers doesn't go to the Suns, it's a pretty safe bet he'll end up somewhere at the end of the lottery. He'd give the Suns a dynamic scorer and a potential star in the post-Nash era, whenever that officially begins.
14. Houston Rockets: John Henson, PF (North Carolina)
Henson could help out teams like the Pistons and Bucks, but if he falls this far, the Rockets have to take a serious look. The lengthy power forward was born to alter shot attempts, and he'd be a pleasantly athletic alternative to Luis Scola.
15. Philadelphia 76ers: Terrence Ross, SG (Washington)
Ross would be a lottery pick in many drafts, but the 76ers could get lucky this time. He has great size and athletic ability to play on the wing in the NBA, and he'd give Philly a promising young backcourt with Jrue Holiday leading the way at the point.
16. Houston Rockets (via New York Knicks): Dion Waiters, G (Syracuse)
The Rockets' backcourt is a bundle of uncertainty. Goran Dragic and Courtney Lee are both free agents, and Kyle Lowry is no stranger to the rumor mill. The 6'4" Waiters would provide some insurance and the potential to emerge as a combo guard at the next level.
17. Dallas Mavericks: Jared Sullinger, PF (Ohio State)
Sullinger seems like an odd fit for the Mavericks, but hear me out. The Mavericks could use a bruiser to pair with Dirk Nowitzki, a seven-footer who's always had a small forward's sensibilities. Sullinger could slip out of the lottery, and if he does, a team like Dallas could pounce.
18. Minnesota Timberwolves (via Utah Jazz): Arnett Moultrie, PF (Mississippi St.)
Unless Minnesota has a shot at an off-guard like Terrence Ross or Dion Waiters, it should look for an athletic big man to stash behind Kevin Love. Moultrie is on the raw side of things, but he's got pro size for sure.
19. Orlando Magic: Meyers Leonard, C (Illinois)
Meyers could easily be gone by now, with teams like the Bucks and Mavericks presumably in the market for young centers. It's hard to imagine him falling late into the first round, though. Orlando needs to start thinking about life after Dwight, and Leonard could be one piece of the puzzle. The 20-year-old seven-footer could be dangerous if he discovers a post-up game.
20. Denver Nuggets: Tony Wroten Jr., PG (Washington)
Wroten is a gamble at this point, but this is the point in a first round where teams may be willing to do just that. He's a combo-guard still learning where he fits and developing a rough offensive game. But, at 6'5" he has the potential to be a unique talent.
21. Boston Celtics: Quincy Miller, SF (Baylor)
It's hard to know where Miller will fall—the 19-year-old wasn't especially consistent in his lone season at Baylor. But he's demonstrated his potential to make a versatile impact on both ends of the floor—something the Celtics could desperately use on their bench.
22. Boston Celtics (via Los Angeles Clippers): Fab Melo, C (Syracuse)
Melo doesn't project to be the league's next great center, but he's Boston's best shot at a big man by this stage of the draft. He's a legitimate seven-footer with the strength to hold his own in the big leagues.
23. Atlanta Hawks: Jeff Taylor, SF (Vanderbilt)
Taylor might get a look from the Celtics, and he could go just about anywhere in the first round. He's the kind of role-player playoff teams crave, an elite perimeter defender with shut-down potential.
24. Cleveland Cavaliers (from Los Angeles Lakers): Moe Harkless, SF (St. John's)
Assuming the Cavs take Beal, they're likely to look for a small forward to help solidify Irving's arsenal of scoring weapons. If Miller and Taylor are already off the board, the 19-year-old Harkless is the next best option.
25. Memphis Grizzlies: Andrew Nicholson, PF (St. Bonaventure)
Nicholson is already 22-years-old, and he's probably not going to get a heck of a lot better. But, he's already become a solid mid-range shooter and could provide Memphis with some useful frontline depth.
26. Indiana Pacers: Draymond Green, F (Michigan St.)
Like the Cavaliers before them, the Pacers are likely to take the best available forward—ideally someone who could make a difference coming off the bench in spot minutes. Green fits that profile thanks to his ability to rebound, pass and impact games in so many ways.
27. Miami Heat: Festus Ezeli, C (Vanderbilt)
Ezeli will probably be the last center to go in the first round, and Miami makes sense. The Heat need a big guy who can defend the paint, and as of right now that's exactly what Ezeli is good for.
28. Oklahoma City Thunder: Evan Fournier, SG (France)
Fournier is a versatile scorer who's come a long way playing overseas. He would give the Thunder an eventual replacement for Thabo Sefolosha or Daequan Cook in the event OKC can't retain both of them down the road.
29. Chicago Bulls: Marquis Teague, PG (Kentucky)
The Bulls have an obvious need for help at the point, and either Teague or Kansas' Tyshawn Taylor are likely to be the best bets. Both have experience with winning programs, a virtual necessity for playing with a team like Chicago.
30. Golden State Warriors (via San Antonio Spurs): Royce White, SF (Iowa State)
White's anxiety issues may be cause for pause, but the 6'8" forward is a beast with the potential to guard both forward positions. He'd fit in nicely behind Dorell Wright to give the Warriors additional lineup options.
