AFC South Devil's Advocate: What If the Texans Don't Win the AFC South?

Once again, the pitchfork and sulfur have returned, and this time, they are occupying the shoulder of the Houston Texans.

For those who aren't familiar with The Devil's Advocate series, I try to take a viewpoint contrary to what I actually believe and argue the other side. Today, I'm going to argue that the Houston Texans are not going to win the AFC South.

The Texans are heavy favorites, but that's as much a function of the rest of the division as it is anyone's confidence in Houston. Here's how the team could falter.

1. Injuries

Injuries are always a threat with any team, but the Texans are particularly susceptible. While the Texans had some high-profile injuries in 2011, they were actually among the healthier teams in football. They ranked 11th in fewest Adjusted Games Lost (per FootballOutsiders.com).

What really hurt them was losing stars like Mario Williams, Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson. However, apart from those three, the rest of the team was unusually healthy.

Every fan is sure his or her team is "more injured" than every other team. The Texans had bad breaks but didn't really feel the sting of the injury bug any worse than most clubs.

If Schaub and/or Johnson go down, the Texans offense will be thin. The team has no viable second wideout, the offensive line is worse, and they lost Joel Dreessen. A couple of injuries could cripple the production of the offense.

On defense, it would only take a pulled hamstring by Johnathan Joseph to greatly reduce the effectiveness of the unit. One of the things that AGL measures is the degree to which players are "playing hurt." The Texans dealt with fewer dinged-up players than most teams last year.

2. Regression

I've written about this before, and it always makes Texans fans angry. The fact is that the Texans had a dramatic improvement on defense in 2011, and that kind of wild swing in productivity is excessively difficult to maintain for consecutive years.

Everything that went right for the team won't break the same way in 2012. It's easy to dismiss dealing away DeMeco Ryans because of his declining production, but he was an important cog in the machine. Sometimes removing a key leader can impact the team in ways no one could have predicted.

The Texans were a very good team for most of the season, but they only won 10 games on the year. It wouldn't take much of a backslide from even a couple of players to flip an extra game or two the other direction.

3. The other teams in the South could improve

The Jaguars were a playoff-caliber team last year, other than that little detail of having one of the worst quarterbacks in recent history. If Gabbert improves or gets replaced early (even the Devil has to be a realist), they will be a difficult team to beat.

The Colts likely won't be very good, but they will have more of a puncher's chance. They upset the Texans last year, so it's not impossible they do it again. Remember, an extra loss here and there is all it takes to make an 11-5 team finish 9-7.

The Titans are a total wild card. We have no idea who the quarterback will be come Week 1, so it's impossible to say how they'll play. It's not inconceivable that Jake Locker makes the leap, wins the starting job and greatly elevates their play.

Texans fans' confidence is sky high and with cause. There is no question they are the best team in the division. That doesn't mean the Texans are a great team, however. They can't win 10 games just by showing up. They aren't quite as good as they were last year, and there are no locks in the NFL.

If things get just a little devilish this year, the Houston Texans could find themselves in hell.