2012 MLB Mock Draft: Top College Prospects Most Likely to Be Busts

Deven Marrero has high first-round bust potential. His glove is outstanding, but if you can't hit on the major-league level, the glove will only carry you so far. No team wants to draft a kid in the first round that will be a late-game defensive substitution only.

In my opinion, Marrero looks like that type of player.

He has shown some flashes with the bat in college, but I don't think many of those tools will follow him to the majors. He can pick it, and he runs well, but don't expect much with the bat in the big leagues.

There are a few other players projected for the first round that have bust potential as well. Here is a spotlight on them within a full first-round mock draft.

(Spotlighted players will appear in italics.) 

1. Houston Astros (56-106):  Mark Appel, RHP, Stanford 

Appel is the premier pitching prospect in the draft. His 127 K in 119 IP this year has me sold on his ability as a front of the rotation prospect. 

2. Minnesota Twins (63-99): Byron Buxton, OF, Appling County High School (GA)

Buxton is the best pure athlete in the draft, his ability to run and throw will help him early on. But he also has tremendous power potential, and he makes solid contact. He'll be one of the standout players from this draft class.

Take a look at Buxton in action: 

3. Seattle Mariners (67-95): Mike Zunino, C, Florida 

Zunino is the biggest sure thing in the draft in my opinion. He has good offensive skills, and great intangibles to handle a pitching staff.

4. Baltimore Orioles (69-93): Kevin Gausman, RHP, LSU 

Gausman is a solid and strong pitching prospect. He has two very good pitches (fastball, slider), if he adds a major league-level changeup, he'll be an elite pitcher.

5. Kansas City Royals (71-91): Carlos Correa, SS, Puerto Rico Baseball Academy

In my opinion, Correa is one of the top-three prospects in this draft. His future is probably at 3B, but he has .300 hitter with 25-30 HR and 100 RBI written all over him.

Call me crazy, but I see a little Miguel Cabrera in him at the plate.

Take a look at Correa in action:

6. Chicago Cubs (71-91): Albert Almora, OF, Marion Christian Academy (FL)

Almora looks like the real deal. He can run, throw and he has developing power and overall hitting ability. The one major drawback for me is that I have him slated for the ill-fated Cubs.

I know that shouldn't matter, but generally the Cubs have terrible luck with highly-touted prospects (Ty Griffin, Corey Patterson, Mark Prior). Almora just seems too good to be true. He is a baseball junkie with international experience and great intangibles.

But in Wrigleyville, potentially great things have a way of unraveling before our eyes. As a life-long Cub fan, I hope I'm wrong.

Check out this video of Almora:

7. San Diego Padres (71-91): Deven Marrero, SS, Arizona State

The Padres are smart to select Marrero, but I don't believe he should be taken in the first round. His defensive prowess is clear, but if you're projected in the top 10 you better be a solid offensive prospect.

Marrero doesn't look like a .280 hitter in the majors in my opinion, and unless you can crank out 30 dingers per year, that's my minimum requirement for a top-10 player.

8. Pittsburgh Pirates (72-90): Richie Shaffer, 3B, Clemson  

I love Shaffer and, on pure power-hitting alone, he is the best prospect available. He has the potential to be a player that appears in the top-five HR leaders yearly.

Take a look at Shaffer's potential:

9. Miami Marlins (72-90): Max Fried, LHP, Harvard-Westlake HS (CA) 

Solid left-handed starters are hard to find. Fried definitely fits the bill with his solid mechanics, good command and mound demeanor. 

10. Colorado Rockies (73-89): Kyle Zimmer, RHP, San Francisco 

Zimmer has excellent strikeout potential. He has a live fastball and as he develops his mental approach, he'll be a solid major-leaguer.

11. Oakland Athletics (74-88): Courtney Hawkins, RF, Carroll HS (TX) 

I love Hawkins' raw power, but he simply doesn't make enough contact. He has a long-swing and he is very aggressive at the plate. For a natural power-hitter this can be a very bad thing.

He is looking more and more like an all-or-nothing power prospect. At this stage in his career, his flaws shouldn't be as apparent as they are.

Hawkins will struggle to ever reach the major league level in my opinion because of his inability to make consistent contact.

12. New York Mets (77-85): Gavin Cecchini, SS, Barbe HS (LA) 

Cecchini is a slap-hitter that is solid in the field. The difference between he and Marrero is that he knows his game, and is already playing within himself.

He won't be spectacular, but he'll be an everyday player that does the little things to help a ball club.

13. Chicago White Sox (79-83): Lucas Giolito, RHP, Harvard-Westlake (CA) 

Giolito's ceiling isn't very high in my opinion. He has already shown the penchant for injury and he's just in high school. This is the type of prospect that will always frustrate a front office. They will wait for him to get healthy in hopes of seeing his potential, but what happens when it never comes?

These are the biggest and worst kind of potential busts. These are the situations that make you wonder "what if.....?" And that's worse than having the player show you on the field he isn't good enough.

14. Cincinnati Reds (79-83): Marcus Stroman, RHP, Duke

You have to love Stroman's competitiveness, but as far as stuff goes, he's not an elite prospect. He will certainly battle on the mound, but I don't believe he has the ability to consistently get major league hitters out, especially not as a starting pitcher.

If his intangibles maximize his potential, he may be a long reliever or set-up man, but that is the highest ceiling I see for him.

15. Cleveland Indians (80-82): Andrew Heaney, LHP, Oklahoma State

Heaney is left-handed, and he has good command. Those traits will allow him to stick in an organization. He has a good understanding of how to pitch, and as he matures he'll develop into a solid lefty out of the bullpen.

16. Washington Nationals (80-81): Chris Stratton, RHP, Mississippi State 

I love Stratton's ability to change speeds. That is a rare quality for a young pitcher. If you couple that with his solid fastball, he could have a nice career.

17. Toronto Blue Jays (81-81): Matt Smoral, LHP, Solon HS (OH) 

Smoral is another solid left-handed prospect. He may take a while to hit his stride, but if the team that takes him is patient he'll pay off in the long run.

18. Los Angeles Dodgers (82-79): Lance McCullers, RHP, Jesuit HS (FL)

McCullers is another pitcher that will need some time to develop. His ceiling isn't quite as high as Smoral's, but I like his potential to be a closer in the majors.

19. *St. Louis Cardinals (90-72): Michael Wacha, RHP, Texas A&M 

Wacha is a gamer, and the Cardinals would be wise to take him here. He isn't a fireballer, but he has good command and a high pitching IQ.

20. San Francisco Giants (86-76): Joey Gallo, 3B/RHP, Bishop Gorman HS (NV) 

Gallo is one of the most interesting prospects in the draft. He projects high at two very different positions, and this is why he has high bust potential.

I have serious concerns about him being less than 100 percent locked in to his initial position, whatever that may be. He seems to have the highest upside as a power-hitting prospect, but his 94 mph fastball has to be tempting to scouts.

Gallo could easily have his development stunted by simply picking the wrong position, struggling at first, and then trying to switch positions later in his career.

21. Atlanta Braves (89-73): D.J. Davis, OF, Stone HS (MS)

Davis is already a very smart hitter with a good eye. This will serve him well in professional baseball, and he has very high potential as with the bat.

22. **Toronto Blue Jays (81-81): Hunter Virant, LHP, Camarillo HS (CA)

As a senior, Virant struck out 56 batters in 50 innings pitched. He has solid velocity and developing command. He could be a steal for the Blue Jays this late in the first round.

23. St. Louis Cardinals (90-72): Nolan Fontana, SS, Florida 

Fontana reminds me of Cecchini in that he knows who he is, and how he can effect the game. He uses his speed, defense and contact-htting to help Florida's overall attack. He reminds me a little of Fernando Vina at the plate.

Here is Fontana in action:

24. Boston Red Sox (90-72): Carson Kelly, 3B, Westview HS (OR) 

Kelly projects as a solid hitter for average with only moderate power potential. For a corner outfielder that is a little troubling, but not completely horrible.

25. Tampa Bay Rays (91-71): Lucas Sims, RHP, Brookwood HS (GA) 

Sims is a solid pick at this point in the draft, but it will take some time before he can sniff the majors. He could be a steal here, especially if the Rays take him. They have shown the ability to develop young pitching prospects.

26. Arizona Diamondbacks (94-68): Pierce Johnson, RHP, Missouri State

Johnson has potentially dominant stuff, but he'll have to overcome some durability issues to reach his full potential. On ability alone, he could be a top-10 pick.

27. ***Milwaukee Brewers (96-66): Stephen Piscotty, 3B, Stanford

Piscotty is another corner infielder with middle infielder power. He should hit for a high average and has a solid glove, but the lack of power may make him a pinch-hitter or a primary backup.

28. Milwaukee Brewers (96-66): Clint Coulter, C, Union HS (WA)

Coulter is a good young prospect, but he's certainly a ways behind Zunino as far as catching prospects go. He looks good at the plate, but he won't handle a pitching staff the way Zunino will.

29. Texas Rangers (96-66): Zach Eflin, RHP, Hagerty HS (FL). 

Eflin has a very good arm, but he needs a lot of work on his mechanics. He'll require great pitching instructors to maximize his talent.

30. New York Yankees (97-65): Addison Russell, SS, Pace HS (FL)

Russell is another very intriguing prospect. The ball jumps off his bat and, though his skills are raw, he has great upside as a hitter. He has only adequate range in the field, so he could wind up at 3B.

31. ****Boston Red Sox (90-72): Corey Seager, 3B, Northwest Carrabus HS (NC)

Seager has some serious power potential, but he is not a stellar athlete. As his body matures, his frame is likely to be less conducive to playing any position besides 1B, and DH may ultimately be his best spot.

*Compensation from Los Angeles Angels for Albert Pujols

**Compensation for failing to sign 2011 first-round pick Tyler Beede

***Compensation from Detroit for Prince Fielder

****Compensation from Philadelphia for Jonathan Papelbon

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