French Open 2012: Why Rafael Nadal Will Be Upset at Roland Garros

At first glance, Rafael Nadal seems poised to continue his dominance at the French Open and remind viewers how well-deserved his “King of Clay” moniker is.

After cruising through the first three rounds of the French Open against unranked opponents Simone Bolelli, Denis Istomin and Eduardo Schwank, Nadal looks to be in pretty good shape. His opening-round games saw him sweep every competitor in straight sets, and he ceded more than two games per set only twice.

The draw will see Nadal continue to play lesser threats in Juan Monaco and, assuming he advances, the winner of Janko Tipsarevic/Nicolas Almagro .

That said, it’s impossible to ignore a few roadblocks that may hinder the pursuit of his seventh French Open title, notably Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer.

If the tournament follows seed, Nadal with face Andy Murray in the semifinals. This will likely be Nadal’s first major challenge of the tournament. In the past, Nadal has gotten the better of Murray, holding a 13-5 record against him, and has never lost to the Brit on clay. Nadal’s 93 percent clay court winning percentage is markedly better than Murray’s 60 percent.

Expecting Murray to beat Nadal would be an outrageous prediction. Even if Murray plays a near-perfect game, as he pointed out at Monte Carlo, “I don’t think anyone can question the fact that Nadal is the best ever on clay.”

I don’t see him stumbling in the semis, but a finals matchup against Djokovic/Federer might be where Nadal’s French Open run ends.

While Nadal owns the career head-to-head against Djokovic 18-14 and career head-to-head on clay 11-2, in 2011 and 2012 they have been even at 2-2 on clay courts, and Djokovic holds the head-to-head at 7-2.

While one wonders whether Novak can keep up the historic clip he had in 2011, if anyone can beat Nadal on clay, it’s Djokovic. He also has the added motivation of defending his No. 1 ranking and his pursuit of the elusive French Open title to make himself the current titleholder of all four major Grand Slams.

Alternatively, even if Federer knocks off Djokovic, that doesn’t necessarily guarantee anything for Nadal. In matches 2009-present, Nadal holds the career head-to-head and clay court head-to-head at 6-4 and 3-1, respectively. While Federer would pose an easier matchup than Djokovic, with players of that caliber that isn’t much reassurance.  

Nadal is the favorite, deservedly so, even Roger Federer commented in a recent interview, “Then (Nadal) is playing for his seventh title, so no discussion. We’re crazy to even talk about this. Some people might say he’s not the favorite, but to me he’s the favorite.”

That said, the competition is stiff and anything is possible. Either way, fans are in store for some great clay court tennis.