2012 MLB Mock Draft: Top High School Prospects Most Likely to Be Busts

All 30 teams have high hopes heading into draft day, but the process of scouting and selecting a prospect is an inexact science.

It's tough to tell how a player will adapt to the lifestyle of professional baseball, particularly those youngsters who come straight out of high school.

Without college experience, many high schoolers flop because they miss out on a key stage, both mentally and physically, of player development. Combine that with potential injury problems and other unforeseen incidents, and drafting prep players becomes quite the crapshoot.

There are plenty of high schoolers atop the big board for the 2012 MLB draft, so I'll highlight those with the biggest "bust" potential in this week's mock draft.

1. Houston Astros: Mark Appel, RHP, Stanford

The Astros could go a couple different routes, as outfielder Byron Buxton and LSU pitcher Kevin Gausman are both intriguing options.

I think they make the safe pick, though, and pick up Appel. He's got some nasty stuff, and with a few small tweaks to his mechanics, he could transform into an ace down the road.

2. Minnesota Twins: Byron Buxton, OF, Appling County High School (GA)

Buxton is a bit of a gamble, and the Twins usually play it safe in the first round. However, given his incredible physical tools, Minnesota should roll the dice.

Buxton's speed, defense, bat speed and arm strength are elite, and he's got the highest ceiling of any player in this class.

He's a pretty raw talent overall, so he will need a few years of proper coaching before he contributes in the big leagues. But if the Twins' management is patient and diligent in developing Buxton, he will live up to his massive potential.

3. Seattle Mariners: Mike Zunino, C, Florida

If the Twins pass on Buxton, the Mariners will take him here.

If Buxton is gone, though, the Mariners should pick up Zunino, a low-risk prospect who should need minimal time in the minors.

4. Baltimore Orioles: Carlos Correa, SS, Puerto Rico Baseball Academy

The Orioles could also go with pitcher Kevin Gausman here, but I think Correa would be the better selection.

The Puerto Rican shortstop is an excellent talent at the plate, where he projects to hit for power and average in the MLB. The Orioles should pick him up here and give their lineup a boost.

5. Kansas City Royals: Kevin Gausman, RHP, LSU

I'd be surprised if Gausman falls past the Royals, who need talent and reliability on their pitching staff.

6. Chicago Cubs: Albert Almora, CF, Mater Academy Charter (FL)

Almora, with his great defense and solid swing, is pretty low on my "bust" radar.

He's already got the mechanics and physical tools to succeed at a high level. With some minor adjustments to his game, Almora will be a perennial All-Star.

7. San Diego Padres: Kyle Zimmer, RHP, San Francisco

Zimmer is far from a sure thing, but with the velocity on his fastball (high 90s) and off-speed pitches, he is definitely worth a top-10 pick.

8. Pittsburgh Pirates: Deven Marrero, SS, Arizona State

Marrero will never contend for batting titles, but with his elite defensive ability, he should have a long career as a quality MLB shortstop.

9. Florida Marlins: Courtney Hawkins, OF, Carroll (TX)

Hawkins rips through fastballs and has the potential to hit 25-30 home runs per season at his peak.

If he can improve at hitting off-speed pitches, he will be a menace at the plate. If he doesn't, he will struggle to hit for average in the MLB, and could potentially be a bust.

10. Colorado Rockies: Lucas Giolito, RHP, Harvard-Westlake (CA)

Giolito is the top high school pitching prospect in the nation, but he suffered a recent elbow injury.

If he recovers fully, Giolito will be the steal of the draft. But if he continues to battle injury woes, his enormous pitching talent could go to waste.

11. Oakland Athletics: Max Fried, LHP, Harvard-Westlake (CA)

Fried has excellent command and an outstanding breaking ball. The only thing that's holding him back from being a No. 1 starter is his fastball velocity, which currently sits in the low 90s.

I like Fried's potential, but if he doesn't develop a third pitch to make up for his fastball, he will be a bust.

12. New York Mets: Gavin Cecchini, SS, Barbe High School (LA)

Cecchini isn't an elite defender, but he's got good arm strength and athleticism. He's also a solid hitter, and although he won't produce much in the power categories, he should hit for a solid average.

13. Chicago White Sox: Joey Gallo, 3B, Bishop Gorman High School (NV)

Gallo is perhaps the most intriguing prospect in the draft, as he's an excellent raw power hitter already.

If he never produces enough from the plate, the White Sox could also stick him on the mound, where he throws his fastball in the mid-90s.

14. Cincinnati Reds: Chris Stratton, RHP, Mississippi State

Stratton is an older prospect, but he was dominant in the SEC this season and he's got an outstanding repertoire of pitches.

15. Cleveland Indians: Andrew Heaney, LHP, Oklahoma State

Like Stratton, Heaney has an advanced arsenal of pitches. He's also got a great feel for the game, making him a pretty low-risk grab in the middle of the first round.

16. Washington Nationals: Richie Shaffer, 3B, Clemson

Shaffer is capable of hitting for average and power. Combine that with his solid defense at third, and you've got yourself perhaps the safest college hitter in this class.

17. Toronto Blue Jays: Matt Smoral, LHP, Solon High School (OH)

Smoral throws a solid fastball and an elite slider, and with his 6'8" frame, he will be a very interesting project for the Blue Jays' farm system.

18. Los Angeles Dodgers: Ty Hensley, RHP, Edmon Santa Fe High School (OK)

With his size, arm strength and potential, Hensley is a good pickup at this point in the first round.

However, if he can't make some major improvements in his command, he will likely be a bust.

19. St. Louis Cardinals (from LAA): Michael Wacha, RHP, Texas A&M

Wacha is quickly moving up draft boards thanks to his MLB-ready game. If he can add a decent breaking ball to his fastball and changeup, he will be a solid second or third option in the rotation.

20. San Francisco Giants: Zach Eflin, RHP, Hagerty High School (FL)

Eflin recently added velocity to his fastball, making him an intriguing prospect for San Francisco. If he continues to improve his versatility, he will avoid the dreaded "bust" label.

21. Atlanta Braves: D.J. Davis, OF, Stone High School (MS)

Davis has scouts drooling with his elite speed, but he's not a good enough hitter to use it to his advantage. He'll never hit for power and I'm skeptical about his ability to get on base.

He's also only an average defender, which leads me to believe that Davis will be a bust.

22. Toronto Blue Jays (compensation for unsigned Tyler Beede): Hunter Virant, LHP, Camarillo High School (CA)

Virant doesn't have great stuff right now, but at just 18, he's got plenty of time to add muscle. That will allow him to add to his fastball velocity and develop into a quality left-handed starter in the big leagues.

23. St. Louis Cardinals: Marcus Stroman, RHP, Duke

Stroman is small (5'9"), but he has elite stuff. His fastball-curveball combination is wicked, and although he may eventually be relegated to the bullpen, I think he's got what it takes to be a solid second or third option in somebody's rotation.

24. Boston Red Sox: Tyler Naquin, OF, Texas A&M

Naquin is an underrated hitter with a rocket launcher for an arm. He would be an excellent addition to anybody's outfield.

25. Tampa Bay Rays: Stephen Piscotty, 3B, Stanford

Piscotty is a strong power hitter with the potential to dominate from the plate. Unfortunately, his lack of defensive prowess will likely move him to first base, where nothing short of elite production is accepted.

26. Arizona Diamondbacks: Lucas Sims, RHP, Brookwood High School (GA)

Sims has been inconsistent at times, and his curveball needs work. However, he's got a few solid pitches in his arsenal, a good delivery and improving velocity.

He's far from a sure thing, but he's a nice selection at the end of the first round.

27. Milwaukee Brewers (from DET): Stryker Trahan, C, Acadiana High School (LA)

Trahan wasn't overly spectacular this season, but he's got the raw tools to be a big-time impact player. His plays top-notch defense behind the plate and he'll hit for average.

28. Milwaukee Brewers: Lewis Brinson, CF, Coral Springs High School (FL)

If not for Buxton, Brinson would be the most talked about boom-or-bust prospect in the outfield.

With his elite athleticism, Brinson has a very high ceiling. However, he's unpolished in many aspects of the game.

If he receives some good coaching, he'll be the steal of the draft. If he doesn't, he will fade into obscurity.

29. Texas Rangers: Addison Russell, SS, Pace High School (FL)

Russell has elite arm strength, bat speed and power. He'll probably be moved to third base, but with his athleticism and hitting ability, this shouldn't be a problem.

Russell is perhaps the safest pick among the high schoolers.

30. New York Yankees: David Dahl, CF, Oak Mountain High School (AL)

Dahl doesn't have a ton of upside, but he's got good speed, both with the bat in his hands and when he's running between the base paths.

He'd be a solid pickup here.

31. Boston Red Sox (from PHI): Tanner Rahier, SS, Palm Desert High School (CA)

Rahier will probably be moved to third due to his limited range, but he should be a monster from the plate.

He's has very advanced hitting technique for a high school kid, with his smooth swing and unrelenting confidence making him a tough out.