2012 MLB Mock Draft: Sleepers, Busts and Shocking Surprises

With a class as volatile as this one, the 2012 Major League Baseball draft is going to feature more surprises than anything else. 

The new collective bargaining agreement is also going to change the ways teams draft, since they can't afford to spend as much as they used to be able to. So much uncertainty certainly leaves a lot of things open to discussion. 

Here is a look at our latest mock draft, with a look at some potential sleepers, busts and surprises waiting to happen. 

1. Houston Astros (56-106): Mark Appel, RHP, Stanford 

Appel may not be the ideal candidate for the Astros at No. 1, but he does have upside, and some slight mechanical tweaks could help him play up his electric stuff. 

2. Minnesota Twins (63-99): Byron Buxton, OF, Appling County High School (GA)

The Twins would be in heaven if this scenario unfolded. While they are used to going after low-risk college pitchers who can contribute after just one year in the minors, Buxton is the kind of exciting athlete they need to repair their fractured farm system. 

No player has the kind of risk/reward that Buxton does, but his raw tools are so good that it is almost a steal to get him with the No. 2 pick. It is going to take him at least four years before he contributes in the big leagues. Just know the wait will be worth it. 

3. Seattle Mariners (67-95): Mike Zunino, C, Florida 

Zunino's solid tools and polish make him a candidate to move quickly through the minors; there is minimal risk for the Mariners. 

4. Baltimore Orioles (69-93): Carlos Correa, SS, Puerto Rico Baseball Academy 

Despite being taken No. 4, I still feel that Correa isn't getting the respect he deserves. He has one of the best bats in this draft and will be a superstar. The Orioles need more high-upside players to go with Manny Machado and Dylan Bundy. 

5. Kansas City Royals (71-91): Kevin Gausman, RHP, LSU 

Gausman strikes me as a much safer bet than Appel to reach his ceiling, with three plus pitches and good command of them. 

6. Chicago Cubs (71-91): Max Fried, LHP, Harvard-Westlake HS (CA) 

Fried is a stud in the making. He has a fastball that touches 94 and one of the best curveballs in the draft. The Cubs will be getting great value and upside with this pick.

7. San Diego Padres (71-91): Kyle Zimmer, RHP, San Francisco

It is hard to determine exactly where Zimmer stands right now. Everyone liked him earlier this season, when he was throwing in the mid-90s. Now that his velocity has dropped substantially, he has bust written all over him. 

Some might chalk his velocity drop up to the fact he has only been pitching full time for a year. A hamstring injury has likely affected his mechanics, but I am still concerned about what he is going to do in pro ball. 

The upside for Zimmer is great, yet the risk is even greater right now. 

8. Pittsburgh Pirates (72-90): Deven Marrero, SS, Arizona State 

Despite pedestrian offensive numbers in 2012, Marrero's defense is still his calling card. As long as he can keep his batting average respectable, he will be a quality big leaguer as a defense-first shortstop. 

9. Miami Marlins (72-90): Albert Almora, OF, Marion Christian Academy (FL) 

The fact that Almora is even around at No. 9 for the Marlins to grab is a surprise. He is the second-best center-field prospect available (after Buxton), with more polish and feel for the game at this stage. 

While he doesn't have Buxton's upside, Almora is not exactly chopped liver. He has great range in center and a strong enough arm, with the offensive upside to hit for average and present power that should get a little better as he moves up the ladder. 

10. Colorado Rockies (73-89): Lucas Giolito, RHP, Harvard-Westlake (CA)

Until we get something definitive on his elbow injury, I am going to hold off on calling him a sleeper or bust. If everything comes out clear, and he falls to No. 10, Giolito would be the steal of the draft. 

11. Oakland Athletics (74-88): Courtney Hawkins, RF, Carroll HS (TX) 

Hawkins doesn't make a lot of contact right now, but he gets the bat head through the zone so quickly that eventually his hit tool is going to catch up to his massive power. 

12. New York Mets (77-85): Gavin Cecchini, SS, Barbe HS (LA) 

Cecchini's value is tied to his ability to play shortstop. Since I believe he will be able to stay at the position throughout his career, he should turn into a quality big leaguer. 

13. Chicago White Sox (79-83): Richie Shaffer, 3B, Clemson

Shaffer's plus power and advanced approach at the plate, as well as solid defense at third, make him as safe a pick as any college hitter in this draft. 

14. Cincinnati Reds (79-83): Marcus Stroman, RHP, Duke

If you want a sleeper in this draft, look no further than Stroman. His biggest knock is his height, or lack thereof. He is listed at 5'9", which prevents him from throwing the ball on a downhill plane. That means he could easily end up as a reliever. 

However, the stuff that Stroman brings with him is as good as any college pitcher in this class, and better than anyone excepts from a healthy Lucas Giolito. 

Whoever drafts him—obviously, I believe the Reds will—should give him the chance to be a starter in the minors before making any final decisions. His stuff is so good that he might surprise a lot of people. 

15. Cleveland Indians (80-82): Andrew Heaney, LHP, Oklahoma State

Heaney has a solid repertoire and an advanced feel for pitching, making him a very low-risk player for the Indians to grab. 

16. Washington Nationals (80-81): Chris Stratton, RHP, Mississippi State 

Like Heaney, Stratton doesn't boast a lot of upside. His stuff and polish will make him a good mid-rotation starter in the big leagues. 

17. Toronto Blue Jays (81-81): Matt Smoral, LHP, Solon HS (OH) 

Smoral has reached sleeper status, simply because he did not pitch a lot this season due to a stress fracture in his foot. Despite the lost time, he still has a good fastball-slider combination to sell teams on. 

He does have to work on adding a third pitch to his repertoire, but a 6'8" left-handed pitcher who throws two plus pitches should not be available at No. 17. 

The Blue Jays have built a great farm system around high-upside arms who offer projection and come with a fair amount of risk. 

18. Los Angeles Dodgers (82-79): Joey Gallo, 3B/RHP, Bishop Gorman HS (NV)

Gallo has huge power and one of the best throwing arms in the draft. If he can make contact with the ball to show off that power, he will be a star.

19. *St. Louis Cardinals (90-72): Michael Wacha, RHP, Texas A&M 

Wacha could be one of the fastest-moving players in this year's draft. He is going to be a quality mid-rotation starter, though one who doesn't offer a lot of upside. 

20. San Francisco Giants (86-76): Lance McCullers, RHP, Jesuit HS (FL)

McCullers has been on the draft radar for nearly two years, but his performance this year has been the best he has looked. His improved delivery helps his stock. His strong commitment to the University of Florida does not. 

21. Atlanta Braves (89-73): D.J. Davis, OF, Stone HS (MS)

Davis has great athleticism and could be one of the most exciting players to come out of this draft. I get the feeling that he is going to turn into a disappointment in pro ball. 

Despite great speed, Davis does not make enough contact to utilize it on the basepaths. He is never going to hit for much power, so he has to put the ball in play to stretch singles to doubles. 

He is not graceful in the outfield, which could prevent him from playing center, where he would have the most value. If he is relegated to left field, he will lose a lot of luster because he doesn't have the bat to profile there. 

22. **Toronto Blue Jays (81-81): Hunter Virant, LHP, Camarillo HS (CA)

Virant is all upside and projection right now, which makes it hard to say what exactly his future is going to be. If you bet on the velocity increasing, he could be a good No. 2-3 in the big leagues. 

23. St. Louis Cardinals (90-72): Nolan Fontana, SS, Florida 

Fontana is one of those players whose tools don't jump off the page, but he does so many things well that you can't ignore him. He should end up as at least a league-average shortstop. 

24. Boston Red Sox (90-72): Tyler Naquin, OF, Texas A&M

Naquin could be this year's version of Jackie Bradley Jr. for the Red Sox. He is an underrated hitter with a short, quick path to the ball, and a good throwing arm. If he can handle himself in center field, he will bring great value. 

25. Tampa Bay Rays (91-71): Lucas Sims, RHP, Brookwood HS (GA) 

Sims is a project, though he does have three above-average or better pitches. If the Rays can get him to stay on top of the ball through his delivery, they could have yet another stud pitching prospect in their system.

26. Arizona Diamondbacks (94-68): Pierce Johnson, RHP, Missouri State

Johnson's power fastball-curveball combination and control of his pitches will give Arizona another arm to add to a stable that includes Trevor Bauer, Tyler Skaggs and Archie Bradley. 

27. ***Milwaukee Brewers (96-66): Stephen Piscotty, 3B, Stanford

Piscotty has more power than Stanford would like him to show, making him a potential sleeper in this draft. He has always shown a strong approach at the plate, and he has the ability to put the ball in play. 

He is not a great natural defender at third base, but his arm helps him make up for a lack of range. As long as his power swing didn't completely abandon him at Stanford, he should be an above-average offensive third baseman. 

28. Milwaukee Brewers (96-66): Stryker Trahan, C, Acadiana HS (LA)

Trahan's stock has slid a bit this year due to a poor offensive performance. His raw tools are still there, so don't be surprised to see him near the top of a lot of Brewers' prospect rankings in two years. 

29. Texas Rangers (96-66): Zach Eflin, RHP, Hagerty HS (FL)

Eflin's physical maturity has developed, as he has added a lot of velocity to his fastball. He still has a lot of areas to improve upon, so as great as he looks now, there is room for a lot more in the future. 

30. New York Yankees (97-65): Addison Russell, SS, Pace HS (FL)

If Russell can iron out some strange swing mechanics, he could be a big power hitter in pro ball. Despite his best efforts to stay at shortstop, he is going to move to third base eventually. 

31. ****Boston Red Sox (90-72): Tanner Rahier, SS, Palm Desert HS (CA)

Rahier already shows an advanced approach at the plate with discipline and the ability to hit his pitch. He is not likely to be a great defender at short due to limited range. His arm and bat will be the keys to his success. 

*Compensation from Los Angeles Angels for Albert Pujols.

**Compensation for failing to sign 2011 first-round pick Tyler Beede.

***Compensation from Detroit for Prince Fielder.

****Compensation from Philadelphia for Jonathan Papelbon.

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