NBA Draft Lottery 2012: Projecting Full Stat Lines for Each Top-14 Pick

It's all well and good to predict who will be selected by each team in the lottery, but a more important prediction is one that deals with the actual statistical production of the players. 

So, how will each of the top 14 projected picks of the 2012 NBA draft fare during their rookie seasons? 

I can assure you that these numbers were not just thrown together. In order to come up with the projections, I looked at college stats and the ratios with which they produced numbers. 

Next, I analyzed how much playing time I expected them to receive given the teams' current rosters and expected free agency losses. Combining those and adjusting the numbers slightly based on the roles of the players and the statistical prowess of the other players on their team, I arrived at the final projections. 

In this slideshow, you'll first see the full projections for each of the 14 players, then rankings for each stat. Finally, there's an overall rough estimate of the Rookie of the Year race, assuming of course that my projections are correct and that no players drafted outside of the lottery are eligible. 

Enjoy!

1. New Orleans Hornets: Anthony Davis

School: Kentucky

Position: PF/C

Year: Freshman

Vitals: 6'10", 220 pounds

2011-12 Per-Game Stats: 14.3 points, 10.0 rebounds, 0.9 assists

If Anthony Davis isn't starting from day one in New Orleans, then something is wrong. It's not like he needs much more seasoning after leading his Kentucky Wildcats to a championship during his freshman season. 

Davis should play a larger role than normal on offense because of New Orleans' lack of intriguing offensive options. 

Projected Per-Game Stats: 14.1 points, 10.2 rebounds, 1.1 assists, 2.6 blocks, 1.0 steal

2. Charlotte Bobcats: Michael Kidd-Gilchrist

School: Kentucky

Position: SF

Year: Freshman

Vitals: 6'7", 232 pounds

2011-12 Per-Game Stats: 11.8 points, 7.6 rebounds, 2.0 assists

Michael Kidd-Gilchrist is another player who should start every game he plays in during his rookie season. After all, the Charlotte Bobcats have nothing to lose (except a lot of games) after setting an NBA-record for futility during the ill-fated 2011-2012 campaign. 

The small forward will end up scoring more points than he should because of the team's dearth of offensive options and he'll contribute across the board thanks to his well-rounded game and unstoppable motor. 

Projected Per-Game Stats: 9.8 points, 6.2 rebounds, 1.1 assists, 0.7 blocks, 0.7 steals

3. Washington Wizards: Thomas Robinson

School: Kansas

Position: PF

Year: Junior

Vitals: 6'10", 237 pounds

2011-12 Per-Game Stats: 17.9 points, 11.8 rebounds, 1.9 assists

I'd expect Thomas Robinson to also get a lot of playing time alongside Nene in the frontcourt for the Washington Wizards. Trevor Booker may begin the season ahead of him on the depth chart, but the situation will be reversed by the end of the year. 

Robinson is one of the most NBA-ready bigs in the draft. Even though he was a walking double-double in college and is likely to put up quite a few of those lines in the pros, he won't receive quite enough minutes to average as such in The Association.

Projected Per-Game Stats: 9.7 points, 8.9 rebounds, 0.6 assists, 0.4 blocks, 0.5 steals 

4. Cleveland Cavaliers: Bradley Beal

School: Florida

Position: SG

Year: Freshman

Vitals: 6'3", 207 pounds

2011-12 Per-Game Stats: 14.6 points, 6.5 rebounds, 2.2 assists

There isn't a single shooting guard on the Cleveland Cavaliers roster with as much talent as Bradley Beal. In fact, other than Kryie Irving, no one on the roster does. 

Moreover, no shooting guard has the ability to produce right now that Beal possesses, even after just one season with the Florida Gators. 

Projected Per-Game Stats: 13.2 points, 4.1 rebounds, 1.7 assists, 0.3 blocks, 1.1 steals

5. Sacramento Kings: Andre Drummond

School: Connecticut

Position: PF/C

Year: Freshman

Vitals: 6'10", 270 pounds

2011-12 Per-Game Stats: 10.2 points, 7.7 rebounds, 0.5 assists

If the Sacramento Kings brass earned their jobs because they're smart, they'll leave Andre Drummond on the bench and wait as he develops instead of throwing a player with questionable passion for the game out into the fire. 

As such, I don't expect the high-risk, high-reward pick of the 2012 NBA draft to make much of an impact during his rookie season. Then again, maybe I have too much confidence in the Kings. 

Projected Per-Game Stats: 4.1 points, 3.7 rebounds, 0.2 assists, 0.9 blocks, 0.2 steals

6. Portland Trail Blazers (From Brooklyn Nets): Perry Jones III

School: Baylor

Position: PF

Year: Sophomore

Vitals: 6'11", 235 pounds

2011-12 Per-Game Stats: 14.0 points, 7.7 rebounds, 1.3 assists

Perry Jones has so, so, so much upside, but his inconsistency is going to lead to a diminished role during his rookie season.

The Portland Trail Blazers, especially if they bring back Nicolas Batum as their starting small forward, have a lot of talented frontcourt players, which could lead to an even more diminished role. 

Projected Per-Game Stats: 6.7 points, 5.2 rebounds, 1.1 assists, 0.3 blocks, 0.3 steals

7. Golden State Warriors: Harrison Barnes

School: North Carolina

Position: SF

Year: Sophomore

Vitals: 6'8", 215 pounds

2011-12 Per-Game Stats: 17.4 points, 5.2 rebounds, 1.0 assists

It would be hard for Harrison Barnes to find a more perfect role than this one. The Golden State Warriors are in dire need of a better small forward than Dorell Wright and that's exactly what Barnes is. 

With his smooth jumper and solid offensive game, plus the creativity of a healthy Stephen Curry, Barnes should be able to score at a high level while continuing to improve his ability to create his own shot. 

Projected Per-Game Stats: 11.3 points, 4.4 rebounds, 0.6 assists, 0.1 blocks, 0.8 steals

8. Toronto Raptors: Jeremy Lamb

School: Connecticut

Position: SG/SF

Year: Sophomore

Vitals: 6'5", 180 pounds

2011-12 Per-Game Stats: 17.7 points, 4.9 rebounds, 1.7 assists

If DeMar DeRozan can average 16.7 points per game, then I shudder to think at what Jeremy Lamb can do once he gains a little bit of NBA experience. 

Nothing should hold the swingman back from a starting role, although he'll have to be content as the No. 3 scoring option on the team, behind DeRozan and Andrea Bargnani. With his pull-up jumper and ability to create, plus the luxury of having passes coming at him from Jose Calderon, Lamb will make a lot of noise. 

Projected Per-Game Stats: 14.7 points, 3.6 rebounds, 1.4 assists, 0.4 blocks, 0.9 steals

9. Detroit Pistons: Jared Sullinger

School: Ohio State

Position: PF

Year: Sophomore

Vitals: 6'9", 265 pounds

2011-12 Per-Game Stats: 17.6 points, 9.3 rebounds, 1.2 assists

As I wrote earlier, the Detroit Pistons are a great fit for Jared Sullinger: 

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The Detroit Pistons need help most at the forward positions and Jared Sullinger is clearly the best of the bunch at either small forward or power forward now that we're at the No. 9 pick in the draft. 

This is an ideal situation for the former Ohio State Buckeye, who notoriously struggles against length. I've said over and over that he needs to play alongside an offensively talented frontcourt member to take some of the length away. 

Greg Monroe is an elite offensive center, so expect him and Sully to form a great pairing down low.  

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He should be able to use that to his advantage as a rookie. 

Projected Per-Game Stats: 10.6 points, 7.8 rebounds, 0.8 assists, 0.8 blocks, 0.8 steals

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10. New Orleans Hornets (From Minnesota Timberwolves): Terrence Jones

School: Kentucky

Position: SF/PF

Year: Sophomore

Vitals: 6'9", 252 pounds

2011-12 Per-Game Stats: 12.5 points, 7.0 rebounds, 1.3 assists

While I don't expect Terrence Jones to begin the season as a starter, I do expect him to earn that role by the All-Star break. 

Therefore, it's going to be tough for the versatile lefty forward to earn enough playing time to challenge the elite rookies in many statistical categories. As he did so often at Kentucky, he'll simply put up well-balanced lines and stuff the sheet. 

Projected Per-Game Stats: 6.5 points, 4.5 rebounds, 1.0 assist, 0.9 blocks, 0.8 steals

11. Portland Trail Blazers: Damian Lillard

School: Weber State

Position: PG/SG

Year: Junior

Vitals: 6'3", 195 pounds

2011-12 Per-Game Stats: 24.5 points, 5.1 rebounds, 4.0 assists

Unless Raymond Felton leaves as an unrestricted free agent and Jamal Crawford chooses to leave the team with his player option, Damian Lillard is going to start his career as a backup. A very good backup, I might add. 

The Portland Trail Blazers need an upgrade at the position, but it's unlikely that the Weber State standout is just thrown into the fire and asked to learn and adjust on the fly. 

Projected Per-Game Stats: 5.6 points, 2.1 rebounds, 2.9 assists, 0.0 blocks, 0.6 steals

12. Milwaukee Bucks: John Henson

School: North Carolina

Position: PF/C

Year: Junior

Vitals: 6'11", 220 pounds

2011-12 Per-Game Stats: 13.8 points, 10.1 rebounds, 1.3 assists

The beauty of this fit is that John Henson gets to do what he does best. While Monta Ellis and Brandon Jennings are busy jacking up shots left and right, Henson can concentrate on cleaning the glass and playing the best defense he possibly can. 

Unfortunately, that won't exactly result in many glamorous stats. 

Projected Per-Game Stats: 6.9 points, 8.8 rebounds, 1.1 assists, 1.9 blocks, 0.4 steals

13. Phoenix Suns: Kendall Marshall

School: North Carolina

Position: PG

Year: Sophomore

Vitals: 6'4", 195 pounds

2011-12 Per-Game Stats: 7.8 points, 2.6 rebounds, 9.7 assists

This projection is very much dependent on what happens with the point guards in free agency that the Phoenix Suns have ties to. Aaron Brooks is a restricted free agent while the legendary Steve Nash is a free agent of the unrestricted variety. 

If I were a gambling man, I'd bet that Brooks remains with the team and starts for the entire season, Nash finds a new home and Marshall is relegated to backup duty while he learns the trade.

Projected Per-Game Stats: 2.3 points, 1.9 rebounds, 3.6 assists, 0.0 blocks, 0.8 steals 

14. Houston Rockets: Meyers Leonard

School: Illinois

Position: C

Year: Sophomore

Vitals: 7'1", 245 pounds

2011-12 Per-Game Stats: 13.6 points, 8.2 rebounds, 1.3 assists

Meyers Leonard may be 7'1", but the only NBA attribute he truly possesses right now is that size. He's very much a project player and the Houston Rockets need to treat him as such if he hopes to live up to his massive potential. 

The big man should only really play during mop-up duty and garbage time, as well as when his teammates get into big foul trouble. His size will allow him to put up some numbers as a rookie, but don't expect much. 

Projected Per-Game Stats: 4.3 points, 4.5 rebounds, 0.4 assists, 0.9 blocks, 0.3 steals

Lottery Stat Standings: Points Per Game

1. Jeremy Lamb: 14.7

2. Anthony Davis: 14.1

3. Bradley Beal: 13.2

4. Harrison Barnes: 11.3

5. Jared Sullinger: 10.6

6. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist: 9.8

7. Thomas Robinson: 9.7

8. John Henson: 6.9

9. Perry Jones III: 6.7

10. Terrence Jones: 6.5

11. Damian Lillard: 5.6

12. Meyers Leonard: 4.3

13. Andre Drummond: 4.1

14. Kendall Marshall: 2.3

Lottery Stat Standings: Rebounds Per Game

1. Anthony Davis: 10.2

2. Thomas Robinson: 8.9

3. John Henson: 8.8

4. Jared Sullinger: 7.8

5. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist: 6.2 

6. Perry Jones III: 5.2

7 (tie). Terrence Jones: 4.5

7 (tie). Meyers Leonard: 4.5

9. Harrison Barnes: 4.4

10. Bradley Beal: 4.1

11. Andre Drummond: 3.7

12. Jeremy Lamb: 3.6

13. Damian Lillard: 2.1

14. Kendall Marshall: 1.9

Lottery Stat Standings: Assists Per Game

1. Kendall Marshall: 3.6

2. Damian Lillard: 2.9

3. Bradley Beal: 1.7

4. Jeremy Lamb: 1.4

5 (tie). Anthony Davis: 1.1

5 (tie). Michael Kidd-Gilchrist: 1.1

5 (tie). Perry Jones III: 1.1

5 (tie). John Henson: 1.1

9. Terrence Jones: 1.0

10. Jared Sullinger: 0.8

11 (tie). Thomas Robinson: 0.6

11 (tie). Harrison Barnes: 0.6

13. Meyers Leonard: 0.4

14. Andre Drummond: 0.2

Lottery Stat Standings: Blocks Per Game

1. Anthony Davis: 2.6

2. John Henson: 1.9

3 (tie). Andre Drummond: 0.9

3 (tie). Terrence Jones: 0.9

3 (tie). Meyers Leonard: 0.9

6. Jared Sullinger: 0.8

7. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist: 0.7

8 (tie). Thomas Robinson: 0.4

8 (tie). Jeremy Lamb: 0.4

10 (tie). Bradley Beal: 0.3

10 (tie). Perry Jones III: 0.3

12. Harrison Barnes: 0.1

13 (tie). Damian Lillard: 0.0

13 (tie). Kendall Marshall: 0.0

Lottery Stat Standings: Steals Per Game

1. Bradley Beal: 1.1

2. Anthony Davis: 1.0

3. Jeremy Lamb: 0.9

4 (tie). Harrison Barnes: 0.8

4 (tie). Jared Sullinger: 0.8

4 (tie). Terrence Jones: 0.8

4 (tie). Kendall Marshall: 0.8

8. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist: 0.7

9. Damian Lillard: 0.6

10. Thomas Robinson: 0.5

11. John Henson: 0.4

12 (tie). Perry Jones III: 0.3

12 (tie). Meyers Leonard: 0.3

14. Andre Drummond: 0.2

Total Lottery Stat Standings

The point totals were found by summing the ranks in each of the five statistical categories focused on in this slideshow. These rankings attempt to show a very rough estimate of statistical superiority. 

1. Anthony Davis: 11 points

2. Bradley Beal: 27 points

3. Jeremy Lamb: 28 points

4 (tie). Jared Sullinger: 29 points

4 (tie). John Henson: 29 points

6. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist: 31 points

7. Terrence Jones: 33 points

8. Thomas Robinson: 38 points

9. Harrison Barnes: 40 points

10. Kendall Marshall: 46 points

11 (tie). Perry Jones III: 47 points

11 (tie). Meyers Leonard: 47 points

13. Damian Lillard: 48 points

14. Andre Drummond: 55 points