Roger Federer: 5 Reasons Fed-Ex Will Further Decline in 2012

Remember when Roger Federer was the best tennis player in the world? When he was unstoppable? Well that seems like ages ago at this point. 

He hasn't won a Grand Slam tournament since 2010. His ranking has fallen to third in the world. It seemed almost inconceivable just a few years ago, but Roger Federer just might not be Roger Federer anymore. Here are five reasons why that decline will continue. 

His Confidence

I'm not a psychologist so this is all really just conjecture, but bear with me. 

In 2008, Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal played perhaps the greatest tennis match of all time at the Wimbledon final. In the end, Nadal won 6-4, 6-4, 6-7, 6-7, 9-7. 

It seemed impossible at the time. Nadal had always beaten Federer on clay, but Wimbledon had always belonged to Federer. He was heavily favored to win his sixth straight Wimbledon final and break Bjorn Borg's longtime record. 

But then he lost.

He would eventually come back to win the 2009 Wimbledon title, but I think that was the point where things changed. Losing to a rival, especially when you essentially have home field advantage, would be brutal on anyone's psyche. 

Maybe something changed in his head after that match. Maybe he just didn't feel like Roger the invincible anymore. In a sport like tennis, that makes all of the difference. 

The Confidence of His Opponents

If Roger didn't feel like he was invincible anymore then his opponents certainly didn't see him that way. Losing to Nadal at Wimbledon made him seem suddenly beatable.

Confidence in a tennis match is a zero-sum game. As the confidence of one player rises, the other falls. Things were much easier for Federer when his opponents were doing everything short of wetting themselves. 

This isn't only true in big matches against his rivals like Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic. Rather, it plays a part in every match he plays. 

If his opponents in round one believe they can win they'll play better. Federer would have to expend more energy beating them then he did in the past. That continues in all of his matches, so by the time he gets to guys like Nadal and Djokovic he's significantly more worn down than he would have been in the past. 

This sort of thing is compounding. As he continues to lose, his confidence continues to fall, which in turn continues to help the confidence of his opponents. This is the sort of thing that leads to upsets early in tournaments. If that happens in the French Open or any time in the near future, this is going to be a big reason why. 

Age

Sometimes the simplest solution is the best one. Maybe Roger Federer is just getting older.

He's still a world-class athlete at age 30, but tennis is a sport that doesn't favor the elderly. The outcome of a match can be determined by the slimmest of margins. 

Losing a step can mean the world, and Roger has lost that step. He's still quick, but he's not quite as quick as he used to be. He's still one of the best athletes in the sport, but "one of" doesn't cut it in an individual sport like tennis.

In the words of Ricky Bobby, "if you ain't first, you're last." Federer isn't first anymore. He may have only lost a step, but that's all it took for younger guys to start giving him trouble. 

Federer's incredible talent and smarts will always keep him competitive, but his physical edge isn't what it once was. He's fallen back to the pack. His decline hasn't been steep, but it's going to continue. You can't fight against time. 

Competition

Not to underestimate the likes of Andy Roddick and Lleyton Hewitt, but the level of competition in tennis now is much higher than it was when Federer started his run. 

A Federer Grand Slam tournament used to be predictable. He'd breeze through the first few rounds, then maybe break a sweat in a set or two with an inferior player. That's just not the case now.

It started with Nadal. While they played several times before Nadal was actually able to beat Federer off of clay in a significant match, the gap steadily decreased as Nadal improved. Now we're at a point where Federer can't keep up with Nadal, someone he used to hold a significant edge over. 

Federer had a similar situation with Novak Djokovic. He started out with the edge, but as Djokovic improved he managed to swing the rivalry in his favor. 

There are elements like age at play here, but credit needs to be given to Nadal and Djokovic. They are both really good at what they do. They're better than the players Federer used to beat.

As he ages, beating those two is only going to get harder, and that's not even factoring in the young talent that's going to keep coming into the game. 

History

I hate to play psychologist twice in one article, but the situation calls for it.

Roger Federer might be the greatest tennis player of all time. Let's emphasize the word might. I'd say that title still belongs to Pete Sampras, but it's debatable and Federer still has time to end the debate. 

Think for a moment about what Federer is really playing for. He's playing for the title of greatest tennis player ever. Those are pretty lofty goals. 

The weight of history affects athletes all the time and in every sport. It's much easier to be the underdog than the favorite. Imagine that phenomenon spread out over almost a decade. That's what Roger Federer has had to deal with.

He's been the favorite for so long that it may have started weighing him down. He has to be perfect nearly every night. For all we know, it's only now starting to bother him. If that's the case, it's going to keep bothering him as he chases history.