Fantasy Baseball 2012: Rest-of-Season Projections for Stolen Base Leaders

AccuScore, a company that specializes in thorough game simulations, has made a few on-the-fly revisions to its seasonal projections.

These 40 hitters, based on AccuScore projections, will register at least 16 steals from this point forward (May 29-Sept. 30):

1. Dee Gordon, Dodgers—39
2. Michael Bourn, Braves—35
3. Coco Crisp, Athletics—32
4. Brett Gardner, Yankees—32
5. Tony Campana, Cubs—31
6. Jordan Schafer, Astros—30
7. B.J. Upton, Rays—29
8. Jose Reyes, Marlins—28
9. Desmond Jennings, Rays—28
10. Cameron Maybin, Padres—27
11. Emilio Bonifacio, Marlins—26
12. Mike Trout, Angels—25
13. Rajaj Davis, Blue Jays—25
14. Angel Pagan, Giants—25

Breakdown

• Dee Gordon (one HR, 19 runs, .222 batting) is an all-or-nothing proposition on the steals end, so much that I would probably pass on owning him in 12-team leagues. Without a doubt, the kid has blinding speed...but the prohibitive cost of failing in four categories doesn't cover the lone benefit of steals.
• If I were a betting man, I'd take the "under" on Emilio Bonifacio's projection of 26 thefts; on the flip side, I may be convinced to take the "over" on Jose Reyes at 28.
• If I had to rank the players from this mini-section on a five-category basis, my 1-5 order of preference would go: Bourn, Reyes, Jennings, Trout and Desmond Jennings.
• I find it odd that AccuScore projects Brett Gardner for double the steals (32) as injured Red Sox outfielder Jacoby Ellsbury (16). After all, it's not like Gardner (currently on the DL—elbow) is on the Yankees' active roster, and it's not like he'll have a 20-game advantage on the recuperating Ellsbury (shoulder) from today's date, barring any more injury setbacks. All this raises the question: Is Gardner's projection too high...or is Ellsbury's too low?

15. Jemile Weeks, Athletics—23
16. Drew Stubbs, Reds—23
17. Elvis Andrus, Rangers—22
18. Ichiro Suzuki, Mariners—22
19. Ben Revere, Twins—22
20. Hanley Ramirez, Marlins—21
21. Andrew McCutchen, Pirates—21
22. Shane Victorino, Phillies—21
23. Jimmy Rollins, Phillies—20
24. Will Venable, Padres—19
25. Jose Altuve, Astros—19
 

Breakdown

• Twenty-two steals from this point forward might be an ambitious call for Elvis Andrus (.330 batting since April 29). He only has four steals in the last 30 days and doesn't need to be ultra-aggressive to score. Just wait for the vaunted Rangers hitters to bring him home.
• Minnesota's Ben Revere has a great shot at 22 thefts if he continues to flirt with .300 in the coming weeks and months. For the Twins, it's imperative that Revere and Denard Span use their speed to help generate more runs.

26. Starlin Castro, Cubs—18
27. Jose Tabata, Pirates—18
28. Juan Pierre, Phillies—18
29. Jason Kipnis, Indians—17
30. Ian Kinsler, Rangers—17
31. Ryan Braun, Brewers—17
32. Austin Jackson, Tigers—17
33. Rafael Furcal, Cardinals—17
34. Brett Lawrie, Blue Jays—16
35. Carlos Gonzalez, Rockies—16
36. Alejandro De Aza, White Sox—16
37. Matt Kemp, Dodgers—16
38. Erick Aybar, Angels—16
39. Shin-Soo Choo, Indians—16
40. Jacoby Ellsbury, Red Sox—16

Breakdown

• Starlin Castro (four HRs, 31 RBI, 21 runs, 14 steals, .315 batting) has arguably been the No. 1 fantasy shortstop the first two months, but it remains to be seen if he can keep up his prodigious pace in three categories. Regarding steals, 18 more thefts would put him at 32—a magical number for positional-MVP candidates.
• I can hear the jokes now: How can Jose Tabata (two HRs, .227 batting) register 18 steals from this point forward...if he's only good for 35-40 more base hits? (Through May 28, Tabata only has 37 hits and five steals.)
• I'll bet everything I own that a healthy Ian Kinsler (six HRs, 41 runs, seven steals, .283 batting) tacks on 17 more steals from this point forward.
• Ryan Braun (13 HRs, 34 RBI, 33 runs, nine steals, .309 batting) has had the quietest MVP-type season of any superstar, partly due to Matt Kemp's amazing April...and the fallout from the offseason failed drug/PED test that was eventually wiped clean. That aside, I'll buy AccuScore's projection of 17 steals.
• Speaking of Kemp (two steals in 2012), I'll be tracking his theft attempts in the first 15 days of his return from a hamstring injury (later this week). We all know Kemp (12 HRs, 28 RBI, 29 runs, .359 batting) has been busy crushing minor-league pitching in rehab starts...but will he be similarly stellar on the base paths?

Jay Clemons can be reached on Twitter, day or night, at @ATL_JayClemons.