Which NFL Stars Will Have the Biggest Dropoff in Production in 2012?

The loss of production from a star player doesn't always spell disaster for an NFL team. In fact, nine out of the 10 players that show up on my list won't hurt their team's win total because of their lower stat total.

Major drops in production can be because of added competitions or improvements elsewhere on the team. For example, a quarterback could see his numbers drop because of the addition of a talented running back. This doesn't mean the team will be less successful; it just means there's a new offensive philosophy.

Devin Hester, Chicago Bears

Key Stat: 61 return attempts, 1,177 return yards, 3 return touchdowns

Devin Hester's overall return numbers will take a major hit this season. The main reason is that the Chicago Bears added Eric Weems during the offseason. Weems is an excellent special teams player and made the Pro Bowl as a return man.

Hester still figures to be the main return option, but there's no doubt Weems will get his opportunities. Look for Hester's 61 return attempts to drop closer to 45 attempts. The fewer opportunities he receives the less likely he's able to return one for a touchdown.

This offseason has a similar ring from previous seasons in that Hester is being praised for his work at wide receiver. Both Brandon Marshall and Jay Cutler feel Hester is ready for a breakout season. The fact that the Bears are still committed to using Hester at wideout will also decrease his return stats.

Carlos Rogers, San Francisco 49ers

Key Stat: Six Interceptions

Carlos Rogers will not match his six-interception total from last season. Prior to last year's career high, Rogers had a total of eight interceptions over the previous six seasons. Rogers had plenty of opportunities to create turnovers, but his poor hands led to a lot of drops.

A player can improve the way he catches the football, but the ability to consistently register high interception totals is about natural ball skills. I don't expect Rogers to return to one-interception-per-year form, but it's highly unlikely he tops four interceptions this year.

The 49ers' pressure defense will impact the amount of opportunities for Rogers. Their 42 sacks last season shows they know how to get to the quarterback. The more sacks registered the fewer passes that are thrown in Rogers' direction. Of course, I'm aware pressure often results in poor decisions by the quarterback, but that doesn't always result in an interception by a specific cornerback.

Britton Colquitt, Denver Broncos

Key Stat: 4,783 punting yards, 33 balls pinned inside the 20-yard line

As far as punters are concerned, Britton Colquitt had a very productive season. However, a lot of that production was due to the struggles of the Denver Broncos' offense. Only the St. Louis Rams punted more frequently than the Denver Broncos.

In case you haven't heard, the quarterback situation in Denver has completely changed. Last year, Tim Tebow and Kyle Orton combined to complete only 52 percent of their passes. This type of inconsistency led to the high number of punts. However, the addition of Peyton Manning will change the entire makeup of the Broncos' offense.

For example, Manning completed 66 percent of his passes during the 2010 season. Colquitt could expect his punt total to drop from 101 to around 65 this season. Pat McAfee's average punt total with Manning at quarterback was around 64 per season.

Connor Barwin, Houston Texans

Key Stat: 11.5 sacks

Connor Barwin accumulated 11.5 sacks last season while playing in 95 percent of the Houston Texans' defensive snaps. It's very likely his percentage of time on the field will see a decent drop. The Texans used their 2012 first-round pick to select Whitney Mercilus, who is expected to get plenty of playing time at outside linebacker.

Barwin now needs to share playing time with Mercilus and Brooks Reed. Obviously, the less time spent on the field means fewer opportunities to get after the quarterback. The Texans didn't add Mercilus to have him sit on the bench, and Reed is a very talented pass-rusher.

One possibility is that Barwin could bump down to defensive end in passing situations. However, it's a much different story rushing the passer from a two-point stance compared to a three-point stance.

Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints

Key Stats: 5, 476 yards, 46 touchdowns, 14 interceptions

The offseason of controversy for the New Orleans Saints will cost Drew Brees' stats to drop. It's also unlikely Brees could match his 5,476-yard total even without all the distractions. There have only been four other 5,000-yard passing seasons in NFL history.

As an organization, the Saints are facing a very tough situation. The bounty scandal has stripped them of stability in the coaching staff, and the loss of Sean Payton will have the greatest impact. Payton and Brees have a great relationship that is reflected by the play on the field. The offensive production will suffer with Payton unable to give his input.

Another issue facing Brees is his contract negotiations. The inability of Brees and the Saints to agree to a long-term extension has resulted in missed offseason workouts. With all the problems surrounding the organization, New Orleans can't afford to have its offense out of sync.

Nick Barnett, Buffalo Bills

Key Stat: 130 total tackles

Last season, Nick Barnett played one of the inside linebackers in the Buffalo Bills' 3-4 attack. However, Buffalo is switching to a 4-3 alignment, which will likely bump Barnett to outside linebacker. This change will limit his opportunity to match his impressive numbers from last year.

In a 3-4 attack, the defensive linemen are asked to occupy blockers and allow the linebackers to flow to the football. As an inside linebacker, Barnett was in position to make many plays on the football. Playing outside linebacker in a 4-3 alignment will significantly decrease those opportunities.

Lance Briggs, considered one of the top outside linebackers in the game, tallied a total of 106 tackles last season. Barnett is a decent player but isn't at the same level as Briggs. Expect to see Barnett's total drop to around 90 tackles.

Wes Welker, New England Patriots

Key Stats: 1,569 yards, 9 touchdowns, 122 receptions

A year older, added weapons and the increasing role of the tight end will decrease the targets Wes Welker receives in the New England Patriots offense. He'll still receive a lot of targets, but that number won't match what he received last season.

New England used the offseason to upgrade its wide receiving corps by adding Brandon Lloyd, Jabar Gaffney and Donte' Stallworth. None will be a threat to replace Welker, but Lloyd will take targets away. Lloyd's previous relationship with Josh McDaniels should allow him to have an immediate impact.

The growing success of Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez will continue to chip away at the targets given to the wide receivers. Both are very talented playmakers, and it would be a mistake to decrease their opportunities.

It's also important to point out the shakeup at running back. BenJarvus Green-Ellis signed with the Cincinnati Bengals, leaving Shane Vereen, Stevan Ridley and Danny Woodhead to carry the load. Green-Ellis was a solid contributor but offered little in the passing game. Vereen, Ridley and Woodhead all could be worked into the passing game.

Frank Gore, San Francisco 49ers

Key Stats: 1,211 yards, 8 touchdowns

This season could be Frank Gore's first fully-healthy season without rushing for at least 1,000 yards.The San Francisco 49ers added two running backs during the offseason. Brandon Jacobs and LaMichael James will both be worked into the offensive game plan. Their addition, combined with the presence of Kendall Hunter, will mean fewer opportunities for Gore.

Thanks to James and Hunter, the days of Gore being a factor in the passing game have come to an end. Both players are much more dynamic out of the backfield and in space. It's unlikely Gore tops 20 catches this season.

The passing game isn't the only area Gore will receive less work. Brandon Jacobs will be used to spell Gore and help keep him fresh throughout the season. Expect to see Gore used in a more specific role and not as the do-everything back.

Upgrades in the receiving corps will also decrease Gore's touches. Look for the 49ers to attempt fewer rushes (with their running backs) than the 423 they did last season. I anticipate the breakdown could look as follows:

Player	Attempts
Frank Gore	150
Kendall Hunter	100
LaMichael James	85
Brandon Jacobs	80

Nate Washington, Tennessee Titans

Key Stats: 1,023 yards, 7 touchdowns, 74 receptions

Last season, Nate Washington had a career year, but will revert back to a 40-catch receiver in 2012. His increased productivity is what kept the Tennessee Titans in the playoffs late into the season. After Kenny Britt went down with an injury, the Titans were forced to move forward with Washington, Jared Cook and Damian Williams as their top receiving threats. However, Washington can expect to see his targets greatly decreased.

Kenny Britt is expected to make a full recovery and return in time for the start of the season. Britt is an explosive playmaker and will be the top receiving target. A healthy Britt will be accompanied by the recently drafted Kendall Wright.

Wright was selected in the first round to come in and make an immediate impact. He'll be moved around the field in order to create mismatches. Wright won't instantly replace Washington in the starting lineup, but his presence will take targets away.

Matt Forte, Chicago Bears

Key Stats: 997 rushing yards, 10 touchdowns, 52 receptions, 490 yards

It's possible the Chicago Bears are hesitant to give Matt Forte a huge contract because they plan to use much less of him. Over the past few years, Forte has been the Bears' best offensive weapon. He contributes in both the running and passing game. However, Chicago's new additions will take touches away from Forte.

Michael Bush is a very underrated running back and will get plenty of opportunities in Chicago. His effectiveness in short-yardage situations will allow him to replace Forte as the Bears' red-zone back. Bush won't only receive short-yardage carries, as he's proven to be productive when given an opportunity. As one of the top backs in free agency, Bush likely signed with the Bears because he was comfortable with the role they laid out for him.

Expect to see Chicago throw significantly more balls to their wide receiving corps. Last season, the Bears only completed 137 passes to wide receivers. Conversely, newly added Brandon Marshall has averaged 94 catches over the past five seasons. Also look for Alshon Jeffery to be worked into the game plans, as it seems like the team has big plans for him.