Rafael Nadal: Why the 2012 French Open Is His to Lose

Despite winning six of the last seven French Open titles, including the 2011 title, Rafael Nadal may be vulnerable for once at the French Open.

After all, it has been Novak Djokovic who has been the most dominant player over the last 14 months after winning three Slams during the 2011 season. Although Djokovic lost in last year's semifinal, the French Open is the only Grand Slam he hasn't won, and his determination to achieve the career Grand Slam could serve as extra motivation.

Don't snooze on Nadal though.

Despite his one loss to Robin Soderling in the 2009 French Open, Nadal holds an essentially flawless resume at Roland Garros.

Using his prototypical French Open style, Nadal advanced early this morning after defeating Simone Bolelli. Out for blood in his red shirt, Nadal cruised to a 6-2, 6-2, 6-1 victory that included the usual ridiculous sliding and spinning shots that Roland Garros has grown accustomed to.

As nice as that win was though, Nadal has greater goals on his mind.

While the French Open has the tendency to yield the least predictable outcome, most can agree that the top four seeds of Nadal, Djokovic, Roger Federer and Andy Murray are the four best players in the world in some order. If the dream semifinal does come to fruition, Nadal would match up with old pal Federer whom he has met many times on clay and held the upper hand against on most occasions.

The utter dominance Nadal has over Federer on clay is somewhat shocking, and therefore a Nadal loss would appear to most as an upset.

Assuming Nadal can advance to the championship to likely meet Djokovic, it would set up the match all of tennis has been waiting to see.

A Nadal-Djokovic French Open final would be long and grueling, similar to the near six hour marathon they played in late January at the Australian Open. The edge would go to Nadal because of the clay surface and the apparent home court advantage he has with his previous success at the French. 

Rafael Nadal should win the 2012 French Open. 

If he doesn't, it means one of four things—Djokovic proves domination, Federer makes a comeback, Murray finally wins, or for the second time in the last 28 Grand Slams, someone besides Djokovic, Nadal or Federer has won.

The outcome of the 2012 French Open will signify where tennis is going because if Nadal isn't winning the French, then we must be entering a new era of men's tennis.