2012 NBA Draft: 5 Best Players to Gamble on with a Lottery Pick

Regardless of how the ping pong balls fall Wednesday evening, the NBA Draft is far from a sure thing.

For every Jordan, there is a Washburn.  For every O'Neal, there is an Olowokandi. 

 Conversely, each year there is a late-round afterthought that quickly wows onlookers and proves he was worth a much earlier selection. 

While prognosticating the future is the farthest thing from an exact science, here are five soon-to-be-drafted players who NBA GMs everywhere would be smart to roll the dice with on draft night. 

Anthony Davis

While some would argue Davis, the consensus No.1 pick for whoever is lucky enough to snag the top spot, is far from a gamble, I would kindly remind those good folks of Joe Smith, Joe Barry Carroll and Kwame Brown. 

Big men who go No.1 are far from a sure thing.  Isn't that right, Greg Oden?

While nothing is a sure thing, Davis is certainly the best bet coming out of this draft class.  Davis' late growth spurt in high school gives him the unique combination of unbelievable size and length with guard-level ball handling and passing skills. 

Davis' size and athleticism will undoubtedly make him a perennial Defensive Player of the Year candidate, and his budding offensive skills have the potential to develop into a well-above average repertoire. 

Michael Kidd-Gilchrist

The major knock on Gilchrist is that he is good at everything, but not great at anything.  This makes him far from your run-of-the-mill "gamble" pick in that he's not a raw athlete with a lot of potential.

The reason I think Kidd-Gilchrist is worth an early pick, and that he will surpass expectations, is his work ethic and dogged determination. 

Kidd-Gilchrist's intangibles are off the charts.  He simply knows things that can't be taught in a gym, regardless of the coach. 

Aside from intangibles, his tangibles aren't bad either.  Gilchrist excels in open space and has the strength and athleticism to play very well at both ends of the floor in an uptempo game or in a rough and tumble halfcourt style. 

Damian Lillard

Lillard enters the draft as the prototypical big fish in a little pond.  Lillard shredded the Big Sky Conference and proved to be one of the most prolific scorers in the nation. 

Now he just has to prove his offensive prowess wasn't simply due to poor competition. 

Lillard has ideal NBA size for a point guard, and a tough frame to absorb contact.  He seemed to perpetually be in the midst of a hot shooting streak while at Weber State; and his confidence, and tremendous intensity—as demonstrated in recent workouts—bode well for his chances to transition very well to the NBA. 

Austin Rivers

While Rivers may get tagged with the stigma of being where he is because of who he is, Rivers' biggest enemy is himself. 

A superb athlete with great length for either guard position, Rivers is a natural scorer whose strong pedigree (being the son of Boston Celtics coach Doc Rivers) will serve him well in the pros. 

Rivers' biggest knocks are being too selfish with the ball and taking too many poor shots.  If he hopes to make any All-Star teams in the future, this is a habit he needs to quickly break. 

This is precisely why Rivers is on this list.  Being the son of an NBA coach certainly leads one to believe Rivers has the knowledge and discipline to correct this issue.  Whether he utilizes the tools he holds by virtue of his DNA remains to be seen.   

Bradley Beal

Beal is thought to be a bit smaller than the average NBA shooting guard, and lacks leaping ability and explosiveness. 

While these weak points to his game may throw a red flag on Beal for some, Beal's stock should be bought as high as the top four picks. 

Beal's unselfishness, high basketball intelligence and knack for knocking down jumpers will more than compensate for his deficiencies. 

Beal is still 18 years old, and thus has plenty of room for growth.  Combine that with the silkiest stroke this side of Glen Rice, and you have a player that is worth pushing your chips to the middle of the table for.