Tim Lincecum vs. Roy Halladay: Whose Struggles Have Worse Playoff Implications?

Between them, San Francisco Giants ace Tim Lincecum and Philadelphia Phillies ace Roy Halladay have won four Cy Young awards. We're used to the two of them being among the very best pitchers in baseball.

A quick glance at their numbers will tell you that something is up.

Lincecum has made 10 starts this season, and he has a record of 2-5 with an ugly 6.41 ERA. Halladay has made 11 starts, and he has a record of 4-5 with a decidedly human 3.98 ERA.

The Giants are over .500 at 25-23 despite Lincecum's struggles, but they're well off the pace established by the Los Angeles Dodgers in the NL West. The Phillies are 25-24, but in last place in a very deep NL East.

Captain Obvious just flew by my window and told me that the Giants are going to need Lincecum to pick it up if they want to contend, and that the Phillies are going to need Halladay to pick it up if they want to contend.

Ah yes, but which ace stands a better chance reclaiming his former dominance? Which club should be more concerned about its playoff chances in the long run?

Good questions. Let's break it all down and come up with an answer.

Analyzing Tim Lincecum's Struggles

The one thing virtually everyone has noticed about Lincecum is his declining velocity.

This isn't a mirage. Per FanGraphs, Lincecum's fastball velocity is down just over two miles per hour from where it was last year. His fastball checked in at 92.2 miles per hour in 2011, and it's checking in at 90.1 miles per hour this year.

That's a not-insignificant drop, and Lincecum hasn't helped himself by struggling with his fastball location. Take a look at his heat maps over at FanGraphs, and you'll see that he's left a lot of fastballs up to both left- and right-handed hitters this season.

Lincecum could afford to leave pitches up on occasion when he was throwing in the 92-95 MPH range, but he can't make those same mistakes with a 90 MPH fastball. It's not a fluke that opponents are hitting him at a .271 clip after hitting him at a .222 clip last season.

His poor control isn't just leading to more hits, either. It's also leading to more walks. Lincecum's walk rate has been going up a little bit every year since 2009, and it's at 4.89 walks per nine innings this season. Naturally, all these extra baserunners are translating to extra runs.

The silver lining is that bad luck has played a part in Lincecum's slow start this season. His ERA may be over 6.00, but his FIP is a modest 3.48. That's a sign that he's been routinely victimized by the Giants' poor defense, which should come as no surprise for folks who have watched a lot of Giants games this season.

And yes, Lincecum's BABIP of .344 is the kind of figure that's a little too high.

However, it's worth noting that Lincecum's line-drive rate is up over 25 percent this season, and he's getting virtually no infield pop-ups. Opponents are making solid contact against him.

The most concerning part is that hitters are making solid contact even when Lincecum has two strikes. On 0-2 counts, for example, hitters have a .200 average against him. They had a .150 average against him on 0-2 counts last season.

That just goes to show that hitters are more comfortable against Lincecum. They know they can catch up to his fastball, and they're fighting off his off-speed stuff.

Hitters had no chance of doing either a couple years ago.

Analyzing Roy Halladay's Struggles

Just like with Lincecum, there's been talk about Halladay struggling due to a decrease in velocity.

I wouldn't put too much stock into this talk. According to FanGraphs, Halladay's velocity is down, but not as much as Lincecum's is down. We're talking, generally, about a one mile-per-hour difference, which isn't worth panicking over.

What is worth panicking over is Halladay's control. It hasn't been as sporadic as Lincecum's, but Halladay is dealing with a slightly elevated walk rate this season, and he's leaving a few too many strikes up in the zone. He typically works the bottom of the strike zone as well as any pitcher in baseball, and he hasn't been doing that this season.

More pitches up in the zone has translated to a lower ground-ball rate for Doc Halladay, and that's a pretty concerning issue seeing as how inducing ground balls is a big part of his game. He's giving up more line drives, and his HR/FB rate has climbed a little bit this season. He's on pace to give up 20 home runs after giving up 10 homers in 2011.

The other thing missing from Halladay's arsenal this season is the strikeout pitch. He's always been able to get strikeouts when he needs them, but this year he's having a hard time doing that. His K/9 is below 7.00 for the first time since 2007.

Part of the explanation for this is the fact that hitters are getting to Halladay early in the count. Hitters are hitting .333 off him when they swing at the first pitch, and .361 when they swing at 1-1 pitches.

It would be one thing if we were talking about simple ineffectiveness, but it's clear now that there's something else going on. Halladay had to be lifted from his most recent start after two innings with a sore shoulder, and the word from CSNPhilly.com is that Halladay's shoulder soreness is not a new thing. Phillies pitching coach Rich Dubee said Halladay's shoulder has been "cranky."

He's due to see a doctor on Tuesday. Everybody in and around the organization should be worried about that meeting.

Lincecum Panic Meter: 6/10

The bad news is that there's not a whole lot the Giants can do to fix Lincecum's velocity issues. His velocity has been declining for a while, and it hasn't gotten noticeably better as the season has progressed. It is what it is.

The good news is that Lincecum's spotty control is something that can be fixed. He and pitching coach Dave Righetti just need to keep working together, and at some point you have to figure that Lincecum will establish a consistent release point. If he starts putting it at the bottom of the zone and on the corners, Lincecum can live with a 90-mph fastball.

Besides, the Giants should look on the bright side. Even with Lincecum's bloated ERA, they rank eighth in baseball with a team ERA of 3.47. The rest of the pitching staff has been doing very well.

If Lincecum can get himself together, the 2012 Giants will start looking more and more like the 2010 Giants.

Halladay Panic Meter: 8/10

There's no point in denying the obvious: Halladay's shoulder issue is a concern. He has a well-deserved reputation of being one of the most durable pitchers in baseball, but there's only so much the human body can take. Now's the time to realize that there's a lot of innings on Halladay's arm.

To me, Halladay looks like a guy who is dealing with nothing more than a little arm fatigue. It's nothing serious, but that kind of discomfort would lead to his slight control issues. 

Halladay pitches to contact for the most part, so he needs to have his pinpoint control. Even if there's nothing seriously wrong with him, you wonder if the Phillies will give him some time off anyway just to give his arm a breather.

The trouble is that they can't afford to do this at the moment. The last thing they need is another star player on the shelf.

Who's In More Trouble?

I have to go with the Phillies here.

Lincecum's struggles are more severe than Halladay's, but there aren't any whispers of him possibly being injured. As long as that's the case, he can only get better. Halladay, I fear, can only get worse.

It doesn't help that Halladay pitches in a hitters' park. Lincecum, on the other hand, pitches in one of the most pitcher-friendly parks in baseball.

You also have to consider the competition. The Giants play in a division that features a couple duds. The Phillies play in the deepest division in the National League.

To keep up with the competition, the Phillies need two things to happen: They need their pitching to perform like it did last year, and they're going to need Chase Utley and Ryan Howard to start hitting when they come back.

There are no guarantees when it comes to Utley and Howard. And with Halladay struggling and hurting, there are no guarantees when it comes to their pitching. If he can't be the ace that he usually is, the Phillies have no shot at making the playoffs.

The Giants don't necessarily need Lincecum to be an ace. If he can get his ERA down in the 4.00s and give them six innings on a consistent basis, they'll be in good shape.

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