Best Bets: 10 Great Plays on NFL 2012 Win Totals

Two of the biggest sportsbooks in Las Vegas released their respective sets of NFL win total props earlier this week. While Cantor Gaming (which operates the books at the Hard Rock and the Venetian, among others) and MGM Mirage don't see eye-to-eye on everything, their expectations of the total number of wins for each NFL team weren't horribly dissimilar. 

The obviously good teams (Green Bay, New England) had their over/unders fixed at 12. The clearly awful teams (Cleveland, Indianapolis, Jacksonville) saw theirs set at 5.5. Everyone else is in between, and there were more than a handful with which I took a modicum of umbrage. 

Here are my 10 best plays on the NFL's win total props this year. I'm using the Cantor moneylines for the sake of simplicity, and my picks are ranked from lowest projected win total to highest. I'm curious as to which totals you found the most bankable, so leave me your favorite win total picks in the comments. 

And finally, I'll ask that you not consider my opinions here as professional gambling advice. If you lose your house after doing something that I suggested as a good idea, you kinda deserve your own fate. 

Here we go.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers, over 6 Wins (-110)

The nucleus of the Bucs squad that finished 10-6 in 2010 remains largely intact. The most notable departure from that outfit, tight end Kellen Winslow, was shipped to Seattle at the behest of first-year head coach Greg Schiano. In Winslow's place is Dallas Clark, who struggled in Indianapolis last season before bowing out for the year with a leg injury. 

The schedule lines up very well for the pewter pirates; aside from divisional rivals New Orleans and Atlanta, no other team on their schedule had a winning record last year. This season will be a relatively easy row to hoe for a franchise looking to get back on its feet.  

Tennessee Titans, over 7 Wins (-130)

I am (perhaps irrationally) high on Tennessee this season. I think Chris Johnson will return to form this season, after rushing for "only" 1,047 yards last year. The addition of free-agent offensive lineman Steve Hutchinson will help greatly with that. And this team will be one of several around the league to benefit greatly from a full offseason, which will be its first under head coach Mike Munchak.

I'm also not sold on Houston repeating as AFC South champs after losing Mario Williams and DeMeco Ryans. Keep in mind that last season, with Johnson's down season and then-rookie Jake Locker shuffling on and off the field, this team still went 9-7. That might be good enough for a home playoff game this winter.

Oakland Raiders, Under 7 Wins (-120)

Raiders GM Reggie McKenzie fired Hue Jackson and replaced him with a 39-year-old guy with one year of experience as a position coach and one year as a defensive coordinator. Now granted, Jackson had his team at 7-4 and it choked away the division last year, but the team was improving and close to achieving the stability that it desperately needed. New team owner Mark Davis, who inherited the team from his late father, Al, changed all of that. 

Carson Palmer might be too good of a quarterback for this team to finish below .500, but Dennis Allen is a total wild card here, and that (along with Allen's defensive "background") works against Palmer. 

Miami Dolphins, Under 7.5 Wins (-120)

The Dolphins exist in a vacuum of leadership. Team owner Stephen Ross seems content to run the franchise like the Los Angeles Lakers, working more toward bringing star power to his press box and making acquisitions based on box office potential. His mismanagement of the team might best be illustrated by his exposed search for a new head coach while still employing Tony Sparano.

Ross couldn't bring in a big name to replace Sparano (they settled for Packers assistant Joe Philbin), and he either couldn't or wouldn't allow GM Jeff Ireland to make a play to sign free-agent quarterbacks Peyton Manning or Matt Flynn. Players on a team can sense when their franchise is in disarray, and that's as big a hurdle as any as the Dolphins look to finish at or above .500 for only the second time since 2005. 

Carolina Panthers, over 7.5 Wins (-115)

There's nobody in the NFL that's more fun to watch than Cam Newton, and he'll be even better than he was in his rookie season. Like its division rivals in Tampa Bay, Carolina's schedule is quite favorable. A Week 3 matchup against the Giants on Thursday night will tell us if Cam and the gang are ready for prime time.

I believe they are. 

Cincinnati Bengals, over 7.5 Wins (-130)

It's not unrealistic for the Bengals to improve on their 9-7 record from last season. They're stacked at wide receiver and at cornerback, and quarterback Andy Dalton found himself in the Pro Bowl at the end of his rookie season (as an alternate, but my point stands).

The X-factors for this year's team are Dalton and newcomer BenJarvus Green-Ellis. It seems only appropriate that a team with Adam "Pacman" Jones would bring in "The Law Firm" during the offseason. 

San Diego Chargers, Less Than 9 Wins (-130)

The Chargers barely finished at 8-8 last year (after a horrible six-game midseason losing streak), and that might be the ceiling for this Norv Turner-coached team. They went .500 in what I'd consider the NFL's weakest division last season, one that many experts had expected them to win handily. 

Philip Rivers, who played himself out of "elite" status last year, threw 10 interceptions during that aforementioned losing streak. His team essentially traded Vincent Jackson for Robert Meachem during the offseason. That's a downgrade (in production, if not in talent) that symbolizes the backward direction of this franchise, and one that will help leave San Diego outside of the playoffs for the third straight year. 

Denver Broncos, Under 9.5 Wins (-120)

Where to start with these Denver Broncos? First of all, we're not even sure that Peyton Manning will be healthy for the entire season. Secondly, it's only realistic to expect the Broncos' defense to regress toward the mean this season, considering that (a) defenses just naturally do that, and (b) they won't be playing the Army single-wing style of football this year, a conservative style that allowed their defense the benefits of extra rest and better field position. 

I'm betting against Peyton Manning this season. If he's healthy and his game is up to par, ignore everything I just said.

New Orleans Saints, Under 10 Wins (-125)

I think the concern of Drew Brees' holdout is overblown (he'll get into camp with as much time as he needs to prepare for the season, and he'll play well), but the impact of the "Bounty-Gate" suspensions will be felt throughout the season.

Head coach Sean Payton (suspended for the entire season) and interim head coach Joe Vitt (four games) will leave the Saints in a leadership vacuum for the first month of the season. You know your football team has it rough when it is starting the season with its third-string head coach.

Houston Texans, Under 10 Wins (+110)

Quick aside here: The over 10 wins prop, out of all the 64 total props that Cantor released earlier this week, offered the worst payout on the board at minus-140. And I've railed on this topic before. Why the sportsbooks don't simply adjust the total itself and then use the standard moneyline of minus-110 is beyond me. Do they not want to pay out if Houston finishes with exactly 10 wins? It's my best guess that they don't.

Having said all of that, Houston with less than 10 wins at +110 is more enticing to me than a To Wong Foo sequel to Eddie Murphy. Mario Williams and DeMeco Ryans are gonzo, Andre Johnson will turn 31 in July and the rest of the AFC South got better this season. Just because they got to 10 wins with T.J. Yates at quarterback last season doesn't mean they can do it again with Matt Schaub. Yeah, Matt Schaub is their quarterback. Remember that guy? No? Alrighty then.