UFC 146: A Full Breakdown of Roy Nelson vs. Dave Herman

UFC 146 is going down this Memorial Day weekend. Did you know the main card is ALL HEAVYWEIGHTS?! Well, it is. And in the quirkiest matchup of the evening, you've got Roy "Big Country" Nelson (16-7, 3-3 UFC) squaring off with Dave "Pee Wee" Herman (21-3, 1-1 UFC).

Nelson is probably glad the game of opponent musical chairs stopped where it did. First, Antonio Silva got bumped up to face Cain Velasquez, then Gabriel Gonzaga backed out. Herman would seem to be a more favorable matchup for "Big Country" than the other two. At least at first glance.

But what about subsequent glances? Read on to find out.

Striking/Standup

Nelson is a pretty well-rounded fighter, but you'd never know it from watching his last few fights. Like a lot of guys who have power at the ends of their limbs, Nelson, after earning himself a couple of knockouts, seems to have become addicted to brawling. It's the same addiction that tragically befell Chuck Liddell, Quinton Jackson and Rashad Evans (though Evans was eventually able to overcome the compulsion).

We'll see how Nelson approaches this fight against an unadulterated striker like Herman. Pee Wee has 17 wins by KO, TKO or taps to strikes. He likes to throw hands. His knees are brutal, too.

If these two men go toe to toe, Nelson and his concrete chin can make some hay playing the take-two-to-give-one game. But that game doesn't have especially favorable odds, as evidenced by Nelson's showings against Fabricio Werdum and Junior dos Santos. Herman isn't on a level with those guys, but he's dangerous enough that he can take advantage if Nelson decides he wants to simply wade in and let the chips fall where they may.

Advantage: Herman

Ground Game/Submissions

Nelson is a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt with four submission wins on his resume. However, his last win by tapout came almost six years ago.

Herman said once that "jiu-jitsu doesn't work." That should tell you all you need to know about his esteem for that particular art form. 

Herman has never been submitted, though. So at least he's walking his talk. Then again, he's never really hit the ground with a great jiu-jitsu player before. John Olav Einemo was excellent in that phase, but Herman knocked him out before the action could go horizontal, largely because Einemo chose to try and bang with Pee Wee. Are you paying attention, Roy? 

Nelson is willing to take a fight groundward, but it's been a while since it comprised the bulk of his strategy. If there was ever a time for him to dust off the ground game, now is probably that time.

Advantage (if he chooses to use it): Nelson

Between the Ears

Part of me wants to predict that Herman is suffering from a confidence deficit after getting rocked by Stefan Struve in his last fight (the same Struve, by the way, that Nelson has knocked out).

But I just don't think Herman is that kind of guy. I don't know him personally, but let me put it this way: he doesn't seem to allow the doings and transpirings of his own life and the world around him to upset him very much. And that goes both ways. I'm sure he wants to stay in the UFC and all, but I don't see him as the type of guy to respond to a loss with a demonic training camp.

Nelson, on the other hand, may not have a choice. If he loses this one, it'll be his fourth loss in five tries in the UFC. I don't think he's in any real danger of being cut-—he's simply too popular-—but a loss here would kick talk of weight and dropping down a class into high gear. And no matter where he went, it would probably mean staying out of main cards and elite matchups for the foreseeable future. Nelson is a proud guy who likes to do things his way. He surely realizes that another loss would probably mean losing his reputation (at least temporarily) as one of the UFC's better heavyweights, as well as whatever ability he may have had to control his own UFC destiny.

Advantage: Push

Bottom Line

Nelson needs it more. He probably wants it more, too, given that Herman exudes this vibe that fighting is cool and all, but if someone wants to pay him the same money to salvage freight barges for scrap iron, hey, that's cool, too. I'm not saying it's a bad vibe. In fact, it's a decidedly good vibe. It's just that it doesn't bode well for his ability to consistently win fights at the higher levels of the UFC.

And in terms of the actual, you know, fight, Nelson has the bigger toolbox. Get Herman to the ground. Pound on him. Try to grab an arm. If Nelson remembers to open up this toolbox and use what he finds inside, he should be fine.

Prediction: Roy Nelson, unanimous decision