Top Five Fantasy Baseball Draft Questions: Shortstop

1.  Who Should Be the First Shortstop off the Board?

Duh, not only should Hanley Ramirez be the first shortstop off the board, Ramirez should be the No. 1 overall pick in EVERY draft.  He’s young, he’s cheap, he plays a shallow position.  He hits for good power, he steals tons of bases, and hits for a pretty good average. 

No one else at the position can give you what Hanley can. 

Jose Reyes is a nice player but won’t hit for the power that Ramirez will.  Jimmy Rollins could have been in the discussion a couple years ago, but injuries and age have become a factor.

If you get the No. 1 pick, take Hanley Ramirez with the utmost confidence.  Only injury can derail him.

2.  Will Jimmy Rollins and Troy Tulowitzki Bounce Back?

There is more concern surrounding Jimmy Rollins, however, he has the chance to have the better season.  A year removed from a 30/40 season and the NL MVP, Rollins battled injury and a power reduction as he was able to hit only 11 homers in 2008.

In fact, the only statistic that Rollins didn’t take a huge step back in was stolen bases. With 47, he was able to set a new career high in that category, which was able to help his fantasy owners to make up for the loss everywhere else.

Rollins is 30 years old now, so he is no spring chicken anymore, but I don’t see a major reduction in his steals. He should still be able to get over 30.

The power, however, might be another story.

If you look at his entire career, he never even came close to 25 homers before he hit 25 and 30 in 2006 and 2007, respectively. In fact, his career high before that season was 14, and that includes his time in the minor leagues.

I’m not sure where the power came from in those two seasons, but to expect him to get back to 30 might be a dream.

If you draft Rollins, do yourself a favor and set realistic expectations. A .285 average with 18 to 22 homers and 80 to 90 RBI seems about right to me.

After winning the NL ROY, the sky seemed to be the limit for Troy Tulowitzki. He was one of the leaders of a team that went to the World Series in his rookie season, and fantasy owners were all longing to have him on their roster. He hit .291 with 24 homers and 99 RBI in his first year in the Bigs, and he was flying off fantasy drafts in the first few rounds.

Boy, if those people knew what they were in for!

Tulowitzki missed 46 games with a quad injury. Then, shortly after he came back from that (and actually was hitting again), he cut his hand on a piece of broken bat which shattered when he slammed it into the ground in frustration.

By then, his owners were running for the liquor cabinet.

He returned two weeks later with mixed results. He was able to raise his batting average 70 points from that point to the end of the season, but he hit just five homers in the last two months.

He is just 24 years old, so to think he can’t bounce back from one subpar, injury-riddled season is ridiculous. Look for Tulo to get back to his Rookie of the Year numbers with perhaps a bit less power.

3. Is This the Year for Stephen Drew?

Stephen Drew has been in our fantasy consciousness for a few years now, but has yet to have that breakout season we all expected.  He has improved a little bit each year, and here at Fighting Chance, we are expecting 2009 to be the year of the Drew. 

Well, just Stephen, not J.D. 

If you are unable to get Hanley, Jose, or Jimmy, Drew is a great fallback plan, as I think this is the year that he hits 25 homers and starts to take more bases as well. 

The guy has one of the sweetest swings you have ever seen and is great at driving the ball into the gaps and over the fence.  Look for a .295 average with 26 homers, 85 RBI, and 15 steals from the Diamondbacks shortstop.

4. Can you count on Mike Aviles?

Mike Aviles was quite the second half pickup in 2008, but as with all unknown players that break out, we ask, “Can he do it again?”

If you look at Aviles’ stats in the minors, you can feel somewhat confident about his chances in 2009.  Aviles was the Royals' Minor League Player of the Year in 2007 after a season of a .296 average with 17 homers and 77 RBI in 133 games.  He was off to another great start in 2008 (.336/10/42 in 51 games) before getting the call to KC. 

He shouldn’t be considered one of the top five, but if you decide to wait until later in drafts, Aviles is another guy that should be able to provide you with solid fantasy numbers, even if they aren’t spectacular.  The .325 average may be a little much to expect, but a .290/21/75 season seems to be within reach.

5.  Is It All Over for Miguel Tejada?

It seems like a long time ago that Miguel Tejada was the American League MVP, and his power statistics have dropped for five consecutive seasons.  In 2004, Tejada hit 34 homers. Last season the number had dropped all the way to 13.

He doesn’t bring you speed, he isn’t hitting for much power anymore, and his average was actually under .290 last season. 

So, let’s recap. 

The guy was a former MVP with 30+ homer power.  He was then listed in the Mitchell Report, and ever since they started testing for performance enhancers his numbers have been halved, even after a move to a smaller home ballpark. 

Now, I’m not saying...I’m just saying...you know what I’m saying? 

If he’s holding down anything more than your bench, you are in a bad place.

Do you have your own questions? Do you disagree? As always, your comments and questions are welcome at [e-mail]. I guarantee a response within 18 hours. Also, don’t miss “The Fantasy Baseball Gurus Show” on Blog Talk Radio every Wednesday night at 10pm EST.