Preakness 2012 Favorites: Should You Take I'll Have Another or Bodemeister?

When the 137th running of the Preakness Stakes kicks off at Pimlico Race Course in Baltimore Saturday afternoon, the majority of attention (and betting action) will be centered around two horses—Kentucky Derby winner I'll Have Another and Preakness favorite Bodemeister.

The Preakness has historically been the least prone to upsets of the three Triple Crown races, so it's probable that one of these two colts will find itself in the winner's circle when all is said and done.

So, which horse will it be? (Odds courtesy of Bovada.)

I'll Have Another (3-1)

The overwhelming sentimental favorite to win the Preakness, I'll Have Another will continue his quest Saturday to become the first horse since Affirmed in 1978 to win the Triple Crown after overtaking Bodemeister down the stretch to capture the Run for the Roses.

The colt, trained by Doug O'Neill and ridden by Marco Gutierrez, has won his last two races, including the Santa Anita Derby and of course the big race in Louisville.

It took a near-perfect race at Churchill Downs for I'll Have Another to chase down Bodemeister, and on an even shorter track at Pimlico, that challenge may be even more daunting. However, as Bill Finley of ESPN reports, there is a game plan for taking down Bodemeister in Baltimore.

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I'll Have Another displayed tactical speed in most of his races and was even in front early last year in a couple of sprints. The game plan for him seems fairly obvious: Don't go out there with Bodemeister, but stay close enough so that he doesn't get away from you. I'll Have Another should be two to three lengths behind Bodemeister after the opening five furlongs and then he and Mario Gutierrez will have to reel him in. It can happen.

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Bodemeister (3-2)

The oddsmaker's favorite in the Preakness and Derby runner-up, Bodemeister set a ridiculous pace early at Churchill Downs only to fade down the stretch, allowing I'll Have Another to overtake him and gallop into racing lore.

However, circumstances at Pimlico would seem to be tailor made for Bodemeister to spoil I'll Have Another's Triple Crown aspirations Saturday. As I said earlier, the Preakness is the shortest Triple Crown Race at 1 3/16 miles, and even as Bodemeister tired at the Derby, he still led I'll Have Another at that point in the race.

Also, Trinniberg and Hansen, two sprinters that spurred Bodemeister out of the gate at the Derby, won't be racing at the Preakness, which should allow jockey Mike Smith to better pace Bodemeister in the early going.

Washington Post racing expert Andrew Beyer agrees, and he sees Bodemeister taking the race fairly easily.

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Bodemeister ought to benefit from a perfect set-up in the Preakness. The defection of Hansen removed the most formidable other speed horse from the field. I’ll Have Another will probably try to put some pressure on Bodemeister, but Baffert’s colt figures to get a comfortable early lea—a huge advantage in any race.

Bodemeister wins the Preakness in a runaway, with Creative Cause second and I’ll Have Another third.

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Prediction

Just like the majority of folks who will be watching the Preakness, my heart will be pulling for I'll Have Another, as we haven't seen a horse enter next month's Belmont Stakes with a shot at the Triple Crown since Big Brown pulled up lame in 2008. 

However, a short track, favorable post position and perfect weather conditions would all seem to favor Bodemeister, and unless something unforeseen happens, it appears to be his race to lose.

If I'll Have Another were to win the Preakness, we'd all be talking about whether I'll Have Another is a "horse of destiny" and anxiously anticipating what could be a historic race for the next few weeks as Belmont approaches.

It's too bad for horse racing fans that he won't.

Bodemeister by four lengths.