Roger Federer's Last Stand?

For the first time, a tennis match involving Roger Federer became painful to watch, as he suffered continual crises in confidence before folding in a moment of truth by surrendering the fifth set of the Australian Open. The importance was underscored by his emotional breakdown during the trophy ceremony, and for the once seemingly simple subject of greatness in tennis, there are now more questions than answers.

Will Roger reach 15?

Yes.  Even though the 27-year-old Federer is entering the twilight years of tennis, his smoothness gives him a court age considerably younger. There are plenty of Slams to come and he only needs two. As for Nadal, it's not him he necessarily has to beat, as Murray, Djokovic, and company can always spring the odd upset, and Nadal is on top of the hit list of Father Time.

Will Rafa reach 15?

There are two things at work here.  On the one hand is Rafa's physically brutalizing style of play.  At 22, both knees are already taped up, and almost every year he's ended the season being worn out.  Counteracting this is his extraordinary ability to adapt.  Coach Uncle Toni has a genuine capacity for innovation, as every year Rafa's game has evolved and improved.  Along with this, Nadal is a great shotmaker, which unlike great wheels, is the sort of asset that tends to age well.  But most important is his humility, which precludes the ego that limits other players to stubbornly stick with a given style or set of tactics.  It's a race against time, but if he manages it, it seems it couldn't happen to a nicer guy.

What's wrong with Fed?

In a word, nothing.  True, Federer's greatest enemy has always been himself.  It took him much longer than most to figure out how to win, especially given the embarrassing riches of his physical tools.  And now his enemy is not so much Nadal, but his inability to mentally deal with Nadal.  True ego has prevented him from adapting, essentially Rafa has spent the last 19 matches picking on his backhand, which takes him out of his comfort zone and thus has been the portal for getting inside his head.  However, it is that same ego that has given Federer the belief required to play his game, that is to consistently execute mind bending, low percentage shots.  But it would be oversimplifying things to tell him to be humble, change things up and get strong in the head, just as it would be to tell Nadal to move a little smoother and pick his spots in going all out, just as it would be to tell a man in the throes of depression to not worry and be happy.  Roger Federer, like every tennis player before him, is simply human after all.

Will Roger be No. 1 again?

It'll be tough.  In the 1995 US Open Final against Pete Sampras, Andre Agassi not only lost the match, he lost his mojo, causing him to descend into the madness of the Challenger circuit. Confidence is key to a tennis player, and even more so to Fed, while other players seem to run when they're ahead, Federer positively soars, and clearly it was confidence that was lost against Nadal in Melbourne. For Agassi, the process of rebuilding took a legendary paradigm shift and a matter of years.  Although the Challengers seem highly unlikely, it is safe to say that an uphill journey awaits Roger Federer if he is to get back to the top.

Who now should be The Greatest?

Does there really need to be one answer?  It could be Agassi because of his mythological career arc and his transcendence of the game.  Or it could be Sampras, for his number of Slams, and the fact that no one played better when it mattered most.  Perhaps Nadal could be the greatest, for no one has approached the game with more consistency of purpose.  The answer often reflects personal bias, either for some one or some thing but this is why the question is so important, for rarely does it fail to incite passion, and passion is what puts bums into seats, thus making the world of sports go round.  With this in mind, I will say the greatest is Roger Federer, simply because he is my favorite as he is capable of such beautiful tennis.  Why, it could even be Vincent Spadea, for being one of the lowest ranked tennis players to publish an autobiography, never was so much made out of so little (I did read and enjoy Breaking Point and do fantasize about being a journeyman pro).  Every opinion counts, because the customer is always right, even if he is often wrong!