Fantasy Baseball 2012: Josh Hamilton Trade-Value Assessment Leads Twitter Q&A

Here are a few baseball-related fantasy questions from the Twitter masses:

Tim Casey (@TCasey7) wonders: I have someone interested in acquiring Josh Hamilton, in exchange for Prince Fielder and Jose Bautista. A no-brainer, right?

Answer

I could never advise anyone to deal Hamilton (18 HR, 45 RBI, 32 R, .404 batting) in the middle of his scorched-earth hot streak, short of Miguel Cabrera, Matt Kemp, Justin Verlander, Clayton Kershaw or Carlos Gonzalez serving as the return pieces. After all, there's really no harm in waiting out Hamilton's run, knowing his trade value would remain astronomically high even after the streak subsides.

That aside, getting Fielder (5 HR, 20 RBI, 21 R, .293 batting) and Bautista (9 HR, 20 RBI, 22 R, 2 SB, .199 batting) would be a surprising coup, so much that I would have immediately approved this proposal during spring training. They're both easy locks for 25 homers and 100 RBI, and Bautista is primed for a major breakout.

(Bautista's 1:1 strikeouts-to-walk ratio is uncommonly good for a sub-.200 hitter. His plate discipline hasn't suffered one bit.)

If Owner B was willing to revisit this three-man blockbuster in a few weeks, presumably after Hamilton (1.296 OPS) cooled down, I would strongly consider its ramifications for July, August and September. But right now, Hamilton owners hold all the cards.

Bottom line: If you don't feel like using the Hamilton hammer at this point...just wait a few weeks. The amazing 2-for-1 offers will be plentiful then as well.


Pete Smick (@PeteSmick) asks: I know you love Mike Moustakas, but would you trade Tigers pitcher Drew Smyly in a 1-for-1 deal?

Answer

I spoke glowingly of Smyly in the Top 7 Rookie Pitchers countdown, but his development within the Tigers' rotation isn't enough to supersede one of my golden rules of fantasy baseball:

When comparing a hitter and pitcher of commensurate talents—particularly young stars on the rise—always side with the hitter.

Smyly (1-0, 2.31 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 38/11 K-BB ratio) has been great to date and could easily finish the season as Detroit's No. 3 starter. But you don't pass on a chance to acquire dynamic corner infielders and you don't pass on a chance to land a hitter with limitless potential in four categories. From my view in the dugout, Moustakas (5 HR, 16 RBI, 16 R, 1 SB, .303 batting) has more staying power and a better upside from June to September.

Besides, for all we know, the Tigers may put Smyly on a firm innings count sometime in August as a means of preserving him for the playoffs. (And yes, I'm assuming Detroit will eventually win the American League Central going away.)


Josh M. (@BlkBearHkyFan) asks: Two-for-one offer: I get Michael Bourn/Josh Reddick for Carlos Beltran. Any thoughts?

Answer

Let's break this intriguing offer down, component by component:

1. During the preseason, I had Bourn (1 HR, 11 RBI, 27 R, 11 SB, .337 batting) ranked noticeably higher than Beltran...so that's one point in Bourn's favor.

2. Bourn and Reddick (9 HR, 21 RBI, 25 R, 4 SB, .279 batting) are either in their baseball primes or on the brink of enjoying the best years of their pro careers.

3. Beltran has fostered a phenomenal start to the season (13 HR, 32 RBI, 28 R, 5 SB, .295 batting), but Bourn and Reddick have either matched or exceeded their own seasonal expectations to this point. Plus you can never have enough high-quality outfielders.

4. Beltran hasn't tallied more than 22 homers or 84 RBI in the last four years, and at the age of 35, he's not likely to break that trend. Using that reasoning, you already have more than 50 percent of his total homer output, and roughly 40 percent of his expected RBI total.

Verdict: The sting of losing Beltran will be felt throughout your roster for a while, but unless you're in dire need of homers...it makes good sense to upgrade a vital position twice with younger, highly productive players.


Salvatore Cucchiara (@scucchiara84) wonders: Who gets the better end of this deal—Dustin Pedroia for Michael Young/Adam Wainwright?

Answer

Pedroia (5 HR, 18 RBI, 26 R, 3 SB, .310 batting) stands as the best asset among this star trio.

So, assuming we're talking about a 12-team league, your waiver-wire acquisition—plus Pedroia—would likely carry greater weight than Young (3 HR, 20 RBI, 16 R, 2 SB, .280 batting) and Wainwright (2-4, 6.16 ERA, 1.50 WHIP) combined.

To clarify, this trade is hardly a blowout for either side, but when it comes to delicate deals like this, I ultimately want the best player of the group.

Otherwise, what's my motivation in trading for a former lights-out pitcher (Wainwright) who's struggling mightily in his first year back from major elbow surgery?

Jay Clemons can be reached on Twitter, day or night, at @ATL_JayClemons.