Preakness Odds 2012: Updated Projections for Biggest Favorites and Long Shots
The early odds for the Preakness are starting to look a lot like the odds for this year's Kentucky Derby—except with a little less competition.
Bodemeister was named the morning line favorite for Saturday's race and will break from post No. 7, according to ESPN, while Derby winner and Triple Crown hopeful I'll Have Another is right behind him at 5-2.
Though the 11-horse field will be far smaller than the 20-horse field at the Derby, it won't be any less challenging, as four of the top five finishers from the Derby will be racing for another shot at glory.
Here's a look at where some of the favorites and long shots might end up when all is said and done at Pimlico. You can see the full list of odds here.
Bodemeister
Bodemeister was named the 4-1 favorite leading up to the Derby, and it was well-deserved. For the Preakness, he's the 7-5 favorite. His speed at Churchill Downs was incomparable, up until the final furlong, when I'll Have Another eclipsed him for the win. Still, Bodemeister was impressive in defeat, fighting to keep pace with I'll Have Another till the last second.
While he was impressive at Churchill Downs, it's likely Bodemeister will be even more impressive at Pimlico. The conditions will likely be better than the sloppy mess that faced the field at the Derby, and with one fewer furlong to run, it's likely that the rest of the field won't have a chance to catch up with him—even I'll Have Another.
Trainer Bob Baffert is looking for his sixth win at the Preakness and his first since Lookin At Lucky prevailed in 2010, and he's happy with his No. 7 post position. There is nothing stopping Bodemeister from making up for the Derby loss in Baltimore.
Prediction: First
I'll Have Another
There's quite a bit of non-race-related drama surrounding I'll Have Another and trainer Doug O'Neill, whose history of doping horses in California has come to light since his surprising win at Churchill Downs.
After drawing post position No. 9, he was awarded 5-2 odds.
Still, I'll Have Another appears to be clean, and judging from the way he performed alongside Bodemeister at the Derby, he's another solid pick for the win at Pimlico. But I'll Have Another proved to be a horse that needs to hang back with the crowd before making his final surge to the top, and he needed every single furlong of the 1 1/4-mile Derby to prevail over Bodemeister.
When Bodemeister has less distance to cover at the 1 3/16-mile Preakness, I'll Have Another won't be able to rely on him to tire out.
Prediction: Third
Daddy Nose Best
Despite a disheartening 10th-place finish at Churchill Downs, Daddy Nose Best—a solid underdog pick a couple of weeks ago—will make a run for it at Pimlico. He drew post position No. 8 and boasts 15-1 morning line odds.
Is he worth a bet at the Preakness? Probably not. He was a huge disappointment at the Derby after drawing pretty a pretty good No. 10 post. Betters were excited about his potential because he's proven to be a horse who can lay on the speed at the very end and make a big run, kind of like I'll Have Another. Obviously, though, that speed wasn't quite good enough against the competitive Churchill Downs field.
Facing many of those same horses—all of whom were better than him at the Derby—it's hard to believe he'll fare much better on a track that is far better-suited for the front-runners' strengths than his own.
He's been at his best on turf, not on dirt.
Prediction: Seventh


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