Albert Pujols or Jose Bautista: Who Will Finish with Better Stats in 2012?

If we were to put all Major League Baseball hitters on a spectrum right now, Josh Hamilton would be on one end, and Albert Pujols and Jose Bautista would be on the other end.

If you've been paying attention, you'll know that Pujols and Bautista are on the bad end.

It's been a rough season for both sluggers so far, and it's actually pretty remarkable how closely their numbers mirror each other's. Bautista has the clear edge as far as power is concerned, but both Pujols and Bautista are hitting under the Mendoza Line, and they're both struggling to drive in runs.

Still, it would be foolish to assume that both players are going to continue on their current track all season long. Pujols is one of the greatest hitters of all time, and Bautista has been the best power hitter in the world since 2010. Hitters of their stature are bound to figure things out eventually.

But which of them will end up with better numbers when all is said and done?

To answer that question, we have to dig deep.

Numbers and Analysis

Albert Pujols' Key Stats:

G	AVG	OBP	SLUG	OPS	HR	RBI	SO
35	.196	.234	.275	.510	1	12	17

*As of the start of play on Monday.

These numbers look alarming, but just as alarming are some of Pujols' other stats this 2012 season.

Per FanGraphs, Pujols' walk rate is down to 4.8 percent this season, which is pretty surprising seeing as it's usually higher than 14. Pujols has always been a guy who's taken his bases on balls, and that simply hasn't been the case this year.

The strange part is that Pujols is actually seeing more pitches per plate appearance this season than he did last year with the Cardinals. That's a sign that he's at least trying to be patient, but that he's just not taking good swings. The fact that he's swinging at nearly 39 percent of the balls he sees outside of the strike zone very much supports that notion.

What I find to be most concerning about Pujols' season is the fact that he's just not using the opposite field at all. He has just two hits to right field all season.

If you've been watching Pujols this season, you'll know why—he's trying to pull everything, and that tendency has resulted in a lot of weak ground balls and easy fly outs.

When Pujols starts taking his walks and begins driving the ball to the right side of the field, you'll know he's back.

Jose Bautista's Key Stats:

G	AVG	OBP	SLUG	OPS	HR	RBI	SO
35	.198	.325	.413	.737	8	18	21

*As of the start of play on Monday.

Just like Pujols, Bautista's walk rate has taken a dip this season. It was over 20 percent in 2011, and it's down to 14.3 percent this season, according to FanGraphs.

That's still pretty good, and the strange part is that Bautista's strikeout rate of 13.6 is an improvement on the 16.9 strikeout rate he posted last year.

Bautista is being plagued by a very low .170 BABIP, and the signs are there that this is due largely to bad luck. His ground-ball, line-drive and fly-ball rates are all very similar to the numbers he posted in 2011, which was a very good year for the most part.

The key difference—and this should come as no surprise—is that many of Bautista's fly balls are staying in the yard. His HR/FB rate was 22.5 percent last year. It's 15.7 percent this year.

Combine that with an increased infield fly-ball rate, and you get a picture of a hitter who is getting just a smidge under the ball a little too frequently.

The good news is that this is likely a mechanical thing, not a mental thing.

Recent Trends

When Pujols finally hit his first home run on May 6th, I, and everyone else, figured he would finally relax and start hitting again having ended the longest home run drought of his career.

That hasn't been the case. Pujols went right back to struggling again, hitting just .192 over the seven days that followed his first Angels home run.

This shouldn't come as a huge shock. Pujols is still trying to pull everything, and that was the case even with his home run. It was an outside breaking ball and he reached for it. He homered, but his approach was still flawed.

Bautista is trending in the other direction. He had a very good series in Minnesota over the weekend, and it's not hard to notice how much better he's been since April turned May.

Bautista ended April with a .181 batting average. He's batting .233 this month, with five of his eight home runs and eight of his 18 RBI.

The other thing Bautista deserves credit for is the fact that in his last six games, he's struck out once. This is an improvement from where he was, as he struck out eight times in Toronto's first six games this month.

Why Pujols Will Turn Things Around

The best way I can put it is by saying this: He's one of the best right-handed hitters in baseball history, and I refuse to believe that he is completely washed up.

Pujols isn't washed up. He's just out of whack, and that's understandable. He's with a new team in a new league, and he's adjusting to hitting in a different lineup. He's also adjusting to new coaches, who apparently are still trying to figure out what's wrong with their star slugger (alarming if true).

It's taking Pujols a long time to get into a rhythm, to be sure, but he will find his swing sooner or later.

Why Bautista Will Turn Things Around

Again, Bautista is already showing signs that he's about to break out of his slump very soon. He's had the power bat working this month, and Blue Jays fans should take comfort in the fact that Bautista has at least been patient at the plate all year.

The other thing to keep in mind about Bautista is that he's batting in a lineup with plenty of protection. Even with him struggling for much of 2012, Toronto has managed to be one of the highest-scoring teams in baseball. When Bautista gets on a roll, he'll merely be joining the party.

This is an advantage he has over Pujols, who is being counted on to carry the LA Angels lineup around him.

Grand Conclusion

The question is whether Albert Pujols or Jose Bautista will end up with better stats when all is said and done.

I have to go with Bautista.

Admittedly, it's easier to side with Bautista because he already has better numbers and because he's looked a lot better recently.

But the main reason I'm siding with him is because his approach at the plate isn't a mess. Mentally, he's right where he needs to be. What he needs are some minor mechanical adjustments and better luck.

Pujols, on the other hand, needs to be broken down and built back up. His approach at the plate is a mess, and there are two reasons for that: He's lost sight of who he is because he's trying to live up to his massive contract, and he clearly hasn't gotten help from Angels hitting coach Mickey Hatcher and the rest of the team's coaching staff.

It may be just a matter of time before Pujols gets on a roll and starts hitting again, but by then he (and the Angels) are going to have a pretty deep hole to dig out of. 

Bautista still has a shot at a great season. Pujols, meanwhile, needs to focus on merely salvaging some dignity.

Predictions for Pujols' Final Numbers:

G	AVG	OBP	SLUG	OPS	HR	RBI	SO
149	.265	.330	.510	.840	26	94	86

Predictions for Bautista's Final Numbers:

G	AVG	OBP	SLUG	OPS	HR	RBI	SO
153	.260	.380	.570	.950	40	110	120

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