Josh Hamilton's History Should Overshadow 2012 Heroics When Free Agency Begins

While all of his focus right now is on helping the Texas Rangers get over that World Series mountain they have been so close to the last two years, Josh Hamilton is also going to be the most coveted free agent this winter. 

Hamilton will be the prized free agent position player this offseason, assuming the New York Yankees pick up the options on Curtis Granderson and Robinson Cano. He has started the 2012 season on a historic roll that has some wondering just how much money is going to command.

Immediately after Hamilton's four home run game against Baltimore last week, fans and analysts alike started debating how much the 2010 American League MVP had improved his free agent stock. 

Bob Nightengale of USA Today wrote shortly after Hamilton's historic game that the Rangers' plans have likely changed in light of his recent performance, from the original plan of letting him walk after the season to feeling conflicted about what to do now. 

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Let someone else make the mistake of giving him a seven-year deal for about $175 million, the Rangers muse, but they're sure not about to do something stupid.

Then, along comes a night like Tuesday's historic performance, and the Rangers are perplexed, wondering just what to do about their most popular player and one of the most talented players in the game.

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Two things that can cripple a franchise are overreacting and overpaying, two things that usually go hand in hand with free agents in Major League Baseball. 

As great as Hamilton is, and no one can deny the talent he has when he is on a baseball field, the red flags surrounding him are too great for a team to sweep under the rug. 

There is a lot more that goes into earning a mega-deal than just having talent. If you want to be paid like a superstar, there are certain criteria that you should meet. 

Those criteria are performance, both past and present, durability, age and character. 

Starting with performance, no one can say that Hamilton doesn't deserve to be paid like one of the 5-10 best players in the game. His ability to hit for average and power is as good as anyone in baseball today. 

However, that is the one criteria that Hamilton meets without question or qualification. When you look at how Hamilton is going to age, he is not likely going to do so gracefully. 

As a hitter, Hamilton has never been patient. He goes up to the plate trying to hit the ball. He has never had a walk rate higher than 9.1 percent in seasons in which he qualified for a batting title. It works well for him now because he has incredible bat speed and power that allows him to drive the ball out to all fields.

Eventually that bat speed is going to be gone, meaning Hamilton's average is going to nosedive. Since he goes to the plate hacking, his on-base percentage is going to be based largely on his batting average. 

Throughout his big league career, Hamilton has never been the picture of health. He has played more than 133 games once in his career (2008). He has missed a total of 143 games from 2009-2011. 

Even the year Hamilton won the MVP award, he missed 29 games, including almost all of September. That says a lot about how great he was prior to getting hurt that year, but still doesn't bode well for a long-term contract. 

Hamilton is going to be playing the 2013 season at age 32, so a long-term contract is going to be paying him big money into his mid -to late-30s. Fragile players aren't going to get more durable the closer they get to 40. 

As far as his character is concerned, Hamilton deserves a ton of credit for coming as far as he has since hitting rock bottom with his off-field issues. But as we saw this offseason, things can be undone in a hurry with a recovering addict.

This whole argument could be made moot because all it takes is one team to make a big offer for Hamilton—and you know someone is going to pony up the dough. But when you factor in everything, a big, long-term contract for a player like Hamilton is not going to end up being a wise investment. 

For more analysis on baseball contracts and more things that make me wish I had more talent at sports, be sure to follow me on Twitter. 

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