Roger Federer: Madrid Open Victory Doesn't Make Swiss Star French Open Favorite

The Madrid Open's blue clay clearly didn't affect Roger Federer, who cruised through five matches to win the French Open tune-up tournament. Despite the dominant performance, Federer should still be viewed as the third choice when the French Open begins later this month.

Federer has won 16 Grand Slam titles, but he's never been able to carry over his unstoppable play to the year's second major. He's only won the French Open once, and that came when Rafael Nadal was knocked out by Robin Soderling, clearing the path for Fed-Ex.

So one strong run on clay doesn't suddenly make him the favorite. Wins over players like Tomas Berdych, Janko Tipsarevic and David Ferrer prove Federer is in terrific form. Not having to beat Nadal or top-ranked Novak Djokovic makes his run less impressive, though.

That's why any claims that he's the top dog heading into Paris are off base. Nadal still leads the way based on his unmatched performance at the event, winning it in six of the past seven years. He's established himself as the master of clay, and one loss doesn't change anything.

Djokovic comes in as a close second to Nadal. His play since the beginning of last year has been astonishing. There are times when nobody has a chance to beat him because he's playing at such a high level, and his improved game should translate well to clay.

He was always a solid contender, but his game really took off when he was able to add more power to his solid defensive approach. Now he's smacking winners from everywhere, giving him a chance to end Nadal's French Open reign.

After those two superstars, there's actually a pretty sizable gap before Federer. Since they both usually raise their games at major events, Federer would likely have to beat both of them in order to put another piece of hardware in his overstuffed trophy case.

While that's possible, based on his recent run of play, it's not likely. It's not a fluke that Federer hasn't won a major since 2010. The fields are getting deeper and more competitive, while he's lost a little bit of his power since his prime years.

That's caused his mystique to take a little hit. Instead of underdogs entering a match without a hope of winning, they look at it as a chance to jump-start their own career. That causes him to play longer matches early on, leaving less gas in the tank for Nadal and Djokovic.

It will take a magical run for Federer to walk away with his second French Open title. Even though he might have a couple more of those left in his legs, they are more likely to happen at Wimbledon or the US Open, not on the clay.

Give credit to Federer for a strong showing in Madrid, but he still faces an uphill battle in Paris.