Roger Federer vs. Tomas Berdych: Fed's Success Won't Follow Him to French Open

Roger Federer outlasted a game Tomas Berdych today to capture the Madrid Open title, but he still won't win the French Open. Before we move on to Roland Garros, Federer and most of the world's top players will go to Rome for the Internazionali BNL d'Italia, but Madrid and Rome are tune-ups for the French Open.

At this stage of Federer's career, the smaller tournaments matter, but not as much as they might to a less-accomplished player. Federer wants one more ride as the top dog in men's tennis, but he won't find the same success at Roland Garros that he found in Madrid.

Both playing surfaces are technically clay, but the blue clay in Madrid is a faster surface that better suits Federer. Federer's rivals, Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic, could not adjust their games properly in Madrid, and both were upset before challenging Federer.

He won't have that luxury at Roland Garros. Both Nadal and Djokovic will be at their best with a surface they feel more comfortable on.

Nadal has gotten the best of Federer overall, and that has especially been the case on the brown clay of Roland Garros.

He is 5-0 vs. Federer lifetime at the French Open.

Djokovic is the No. 1 player in the world, but Federer has fared much better against him. He owns a 13-10 advantage over Djokovic overall, a 3-1 edge on clay, and he beat him in Roland Garros last year.

So of the two, Federer matches up better with Djokovic, but either would be a tough draw. It only makes sense to believe that Federer won't be able to avoid both in the French Open.

I can't see anyone defeating a motivated and healthy Nadal in France.

He was none too happy with the surface in Madrid, and I think he'll play the French Open with a chip on his shoulder to reassert his clay-court supremacy. Federer can't beat Nadal in France, and besides any upset defeat he may suffer before his meeting with Rafa, Federer's run would end in their match.

Nadal's clay-court dominance will prevent Fed from an unlikely French Open victory.

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