5 Biggest Shocks from ESPN's Top 100 MLB Draft Prospects List

On Monday, ESPN’s prospect guru Keith Law published his updated Top 100 draft prospects (insider subscription required). While there were only few major alterations in the rankings—don’t worry, there will be plenty more as the draft nears—there was some slight movement, primarily within the Top 25, that I find surprising.

For the most part, I agree with Law’s updated rankings. However, there are a few notable changes and rankings worth a closer look. 

Max Friend Ranked Higher Than Andrew Heaney

Over the last couple months, there has been endless debate about which left-hander will be a higher draft pick: Max Fried (Harvard-Westlake HS, Calif.) or Andrew Heaney (Oklahoma State).

A strong case can be made for both, as each has tremendous upside and has had considerable success this season.

Fried, a 6’3”, 170-pounder whose fastball sits in the low-90s, has drawn rave reviews from scouts, especially for his plus breaking ball that has excellent shape and downward action.  His delivery is smooth yet deceptive, which aids the effectiveness of his solid-average changeup.  As a senior, he’s already shown an above-average feel for the strike zone as well as command of each of his pitches.

The 6’2”, 175-pound Heaney—who is without a doubt the best college southpaw on the draft board—has posted a 109 K/19 BB rate over 93 innings this season against stiff Big 12 competition. He’s got a repeatable mid-to-high ¾ arm angle and an overall feel for pitching. Like Fried, his fastball works in the low-90s and he also features an above-average changeup and screwball that’s especially effective against right-handed hitters.

While Fried may have more upside, I’m surprised to see him ranked higher than Heaney, who has proven more this season against superior competition. He’s more polished,  and has a better idea how to utilize his pitches and attack hitters.

Come draft day, however, it will ultimately come down to an organizational preference.

The Lack of Projectable College Hitters

As Kevin Goldstein (Baseball Prospectus/ESPN) tweeted yesterday derived from a conversation with a veteran MLB scout, "This draft is the worst crop of college position players I've seen in my 20+ years of doing this."

Unfortunately, it’s very true.

Sure, there are some guys who will hit for power such as Richie Shaffer (Clemson), Victor Roache (Georgia Southern) and Adam Brett Walker (Jacksonville) and others who could post a respectable batting average such as Mike Zunino (Florida), Tyler Naquin (Texas A&M) and Jeff Gelalich (OF).

Although the 2011 draft was rich with both prep and collegiate arms, there was still a crop of projectable hitters selected in the first round: Anthony Rendon (sixth overall/Nationals), George Springer (11^th overall/Astros), Kolten Wong (22^nd overall/Cardinals) and Mikie Mahtook (31^st overall/Rays).

Mark Appel Drops from No. 3 to No. 6

While this may be shocking to some, I’m really not surprised by Law’s decision to drop the Stanford ace in the rankings. In fact—unless he pitches really well over the next three weeks—I think he even has the potential to move down a few spots, especially with Kyle Zimmer (San Francisco) nearing his return from a strained hamstring.

Appel has been too hittable all season, and his pitch counts have run obscenely high. He struggles to get on top of his fastball at times, which results in straighter and lighter variations that linger up in the zone. 

While his slider can flash plus potential on occasion, it’s an inconsistent pitch.  Appel’s struggles with the pitch have led to him throwing an increased amount of changeups this season—a pitch that currently works due to its speed differential and not due to movement.

Victor Roache Ranked No. 89

Law believes Joey Gallo (Bishop Gorman HS, Nev.) has the best raw power in the 2012 draft class and has his subsequently ranked at No. 23. However, Victor Roache—who led all NCAA hitters last season with 33 home runs in the first year of BBCOR bat implementation—deserves equal recognition and a more favorable ranking than No. 89.

Granted Roache has missed essentially the entire season due to a broken wrist sustained in the opening week, but he’s slated to resume hitting in the coming weeks. I see Roache being able to make more contact than Gallo, and, as Law states, “You have to hit first to hit for power.”

Zach Eflin at No. 14

He’s not nearly as well known as fellow prep right-hander Lucas Giolito (ranked No. 9 by Law), but he should be. In fact, I think he could even be ranked a notch or two higher.

He’s nearly recovered from a triceps strain and is scheduled to resume throwing any day now, so it’s conceivable that his stock will rise once again after proving he’s healthy.

Eflin is 6’5”, 200 pounds with a fastball that touches 95 mph with a changeup that flashed plus potential and the makings of a hammer breaking ball. Like Giolito, he’s still raw in regards to his command and mechanics, but that’s not surprising considering he’s only 18-years-old.