10 Pitching Prospects Who Could Be the Next Stephen Strasburg
Only a little over a month into his first full season in the major leagues, Washington Nationals right-hander Stephen Strasburg has already proven to be one of the best pitchers in all of baseball.
The Nationals ace has been dominant thus far, registering a 2.88 xFIP with 38 strikeouts and seven walks over 38 innings. Before undergoing Tommy John surgery in late 2010, Strasburg posted a 2.04 xFIP with 92 strikeouts and 17 walks in 68 innings.
Now, it’s not easy to declare that a player will for sure be the next Strasburg, because chances are, they won’t. However, there are numerous top-ranked pitching prospects who have a similar ceiling.
The following list has been assembled based upon the following:
*Do they have a power pitcher’s frame? If not, do they have the velocity typically associated with a power pitcher?
*Do they have the potential to be a big-league ace? (Once again, that’s tough to say, so I can only speculate based upon previous success and scouting notes.)
*Do they have three above-average pitches? (Preferably at least two of these are considering a plus offering.)
*Do they have both swing-and-miss potential as well as a feel for the strike zone? (More so, do they have a favorable strikeout-to-walk rate?)
10. Jose Fernandez, RHP, Miami Marlins
1 of 10Position: RHP
Height/Weight: 6’3”/215
DOB: 7/31/1992
Bats/Throws: R/R
Drafted/Signed: 2011, first round (HS: Tampa, Fla.)
2012 Stats:
Low-A: 3-0, 36 IP, 1.75 ERA, 45 K/10 BB (6 GS)
Overview: Fernandez, who grew up in Cuba and ultimately fled to the United States in 2008, has the upside of a future No. 1 starter. The right-hander has a crisp fastball that sits at 92-96 mph, though there have been reports of him hitting 97-98 over the last two seasons.
What’s impressive about Fernandez is that he already has three off-speed pitches in his arsenal, with the best being a hard, late-breaking slider that generates swing-and-misses. His curveball is an solid-average pitch that can get too loopy and lose its pace at times, so don’t be surprised if the pitch is scrapped as he develops.
The right-hander also has an early feel for a changeup, which only furthers the thought that he could be a front-line starter.
ETA: 2014
9. Matt Barnes, RHP, Boston Red Sox
2 of 10Position: RHP
Height/Weight: 6'4"/200
DOB: 6/17/1990
Bats/Throws: R/R
Drafted/Signed: 2011, first round (University of Connecticut)
2012 Stats:
Low-A, High-A: 3-0, 32.2 IP, 0.55 ERA, 54 K/5 BB, .142 BAA, 2.07 GB/FB (6 Gs)
Overview: Barnes has an explosive fastball that sits in the mid-90s and occasionally flashes a six or seven. He possesses a power frame that’s extremely durable, and he has the pure arm strength to still blow it by hitters late into the game.
Barnes' curveball is above-average and can be a plus offering at times, and should quickly improve as he moves away from the use of a mediocre slider. His changeup lags behind his other two pitches and will be crucial in his development as a starter. His easy delivery produces big-time heat, although he occasionally struggles to work on a downward plane and leaves pitches up in the zone.
Barnes has been dominant at Low-A to begin the season, at times as impressive as Dylan Bundy. Given his college experience and overwhelming success thus far, Barnes could start moving through the organization faster than people expect.
ETA: 2014
8. Archie Bradley, RHP, Arizona Diamondbacks
3 of 10Position: RHP
Height/Weight: 6'4", 225
DOB: 8/10/1992
Bats/Throws: R/R
Drafted/Signed: 2011, first round (HS: Broken Arrow, Okla.)
2012 Stats
Low-A: 35 IP, 2.57 ERA, 38 K/21 BB, 1.83 GB/FB, .114 BAA (7 GS)
Overview: If you read about Dylan Bundy leading up to the 2011 draft, then you surely read about Bradley as well. Also hailing from Oklahoma, Bradley, the seventh-overall selection, was slated to be the Sooners’ future quarterback before signing a $5 million deal at the deadline.
At 6'4", 225 pounds, Bradley has a power-pitcher frame and the arsenal to match. He pounds the strike zone with a 92-96 mph fastball and low-80s curveball that’s an absolute hammer.
Throw in a plus changeup and slider, not to mention a decent splitter, and you’ve got one well-rounded 19-year-old pitcher. Like Bundy, his mechanics are repeatable and therefore have him ahead of schedule in his future ascent of the minors.
Bradley is yet another Diamondbacks pitcher who has a chance to make his MLB debut before his 21st birthday.
ETA: 2015
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7. Zack Wheeler, RHP, New York Mets
4 of 10Position: RHP
Height/Weight: 6'4", 185
DOB: 5/30/1990
Bats/Throws: R/R
Drafted/Signed: 2009, first round (HS: East Paulding, Ga.)
2012 Stats
Double-A: 25.2 IP, 1.75 ERA, 30 K/14 BB, 1.50 GB/FB, .198 BAA (5 GS)
Overview: It must have been hard for San Francisco to part ways with Wheeler, whom they traded to the Mets in exchange for Carlos Beltran near the 2011 trade deadline. One of my favorite right-handed prospects in baseball, Wheeler has a 6'4" frame, fast arm and repeatable mechanics. When I watch him throw, I see a future ace.
His fastball runs as high as 97, though he usually sits low to mid 90s with late life. His curveball is a sharp downer that jelly-legs right-handed hitters, and he also throws a solid changeup that should develop by the time he reaches the major leagues.
While his command still needs some refinement, he’s thrived following a promotion to Double-A to begin the 2012 season. At this time next year, I have a feeling that I may be writing about Wheeler as one of the top pitching prospects in all of baseball.
ETA: 2013
6. Gerrit Cole, RHP, Pittsburgh Pirates
5 of 10Position: RHP
Height/Weight: 6'4", 220
DOB: 9/8/1990
Bats/Throws: R/R
Drafted/Signed: 2011, first round (UCLA)
2012 Stats
High-A: 28 IP, 3.54 ERA, 3 HR, 34 K/10 BB, 1.58 GB/FB
Overview: The No. 1 overall pick in the 2011 draft, Cole is your classic power pitcher.
His fastball was clocked as high as 102 mph in this year’s Arizona Fall League, and he sits in the mid to upper 90s. When he’s efficient enough to play his slider off his fastball, it’s a legitimate strikeout pitch, and he has a decent changeup given his velocity.
He has ace potential, but I just don’t think he will have as smooth of a progression through the minor leagues as others do. For a collegiate right-hander—especially one drafted No. 1 overall—Cole’s mechanics are too inconsistent.
ETA: 2013
5. Taijuan Walker, RHP, Seattle Mariners
6 of 10Position: RHP
Height/Weight: 6'4", 210
DOB: 8/13/1992
Bats/Throws: R/R
Drafted/Signed: 2010, first round (HS: Yucaipa, Calif.)
2012 Stats
Double-A: 31.2 IP, 1.71 ERA, 32 K/10 BB, 1.11 GB/FB (6 GS)
Overview: Walker was lights-out last season at Low-A Clinton until he reached the 100-inning limit imposed by the Mariners. The right-hander has a big-time fastball with late life that touches the upper 90s, and he showed improved command of it in 2011.
He also throws a circle change and an over-the-top curveball that could be a double-plus with improved command.
Walker’s raw athleticism distinguishes him from the other pitching prospects in the game and only makes his potential that much greater. He's the Mariners' future ace with one of the highest ceilings of any pitching prospect on this list. Walker began the 2012 season at Double-A, where he will work on refining his command.
ETA: 2014
4. Shelby Miller, RHP, St. Louis Cardinals
7 of 10Position: RHP
Height/Weight: 6'3", 195
DOB: 10/10/1990
Bats/Throws: R/R
Drafted/Signed: 2009, first round (HS: Brownwood, Texas)
2012 Stats
Triple-A: 28.1 IP, 4.45 ERA, 5 HR, 37 K/15 BB (6 GS)
Overview: After only nine starts for High-A Palm Beach, Miller upped his ETA by dominating at Double-A Springfield. He has an excellent pitcher’s frame at 6'3", 195 pounds, and he’ll only continue to fill out.
Miller throws a heavy 93-97 mph fastball with outstanding arm-side run that generates a healthy mixture of swing-and-misses and weak contact.
To complement his heater, Miller throws two above-average off-speed pitches—a sharp, downer curve and fading changeup. He has already shown the ability to work deep into games while sustaining his velocity and is built for innings.
Miller has struggled with his command this season at Triple-A, but he seems on schedule to make a late-season debut. Don’t be overly concerned with his well-documented off-field issues last season either—it’s not like he had the college experience to get such behavior out of his system.
ETA: 2012
3. Matt Moore, LHP, Tampa Bay Rays
8 of 10Position: LHP
Height/Weight: 6'2", 205
DOB: 6/18/1989
Bats/Throws: L/L
Drafted/Signed: 2007, eighth round (HS: Moriarty, N.M.)
2012 Stats
MLB: 34.2 IP, 5.71 ERA, 28 K/18 BB (6 GS)
Overview: After striking out 700 hitters in 497 minor league innings, Moore offered a glimpse of his potential at the end of the 2011 season when he fanned 11 in his first major league start (against the New York Yankees nonetheless) and followed it up by two-hitting the Rangers over seven innings in Game 1 of the ALDS.
The left-hander features the easiest 94-98 mph fastball I’ve ever seen—a plus-plus wipeout curve and a plus changeup. He has the arsenal and makeup to be an immediate ace, which is exactly why the Rays locked him up this offseason with a five-year, $14 million contract with the potential for an additional $26 million between 2017-2019.
Moore has gotten off to a disappointing start this season, as he’s struggled with his command and, in turn, has been unable to put hitters away in the manner he exhibited following his 2011 call-up.
No need to worry, though—his stuff is still excellent, and he’s mature enough to continue making adjustments on the fly.
ETA: 2012
2. Jameson Taillon, RHP, Pittsburgh Pirates
9 of 10Position: RHP
Height/Weight: 6'6", 225
DOB: 11/18/1991
Bats/Throws: R/R
Drafted/Signed: 2010, first round (HS: The Woodlands, Texas)
2012 Stats
Double-A: 30.2 IP, 1.76 ERA, 0 HR, 33 K/6 BB (6 GS)
Overview: I may be one of the only people who sees a higher ceiling in Taillon than now-teammate Gerrit Cole, but I assure you it’s with good reason. Despite his dominance in 2010 for UCLA, Cole has only regressed since then—although his stuff remains exceptional.
Taillon, on the other hand, made impressive strides in his first full season, as he demonstrated improved command of all pitches. His quick arm generates fastballs that sit in the 93-97 mph range, and he occasionally flirts with triple digits.
A typical power pitcher, the right-hander complements his heater with a late-breaking, power slider and knee-buckling curve. He also has a changeup that grades as solid-average and will be crucial in his development over the next couple seasons.
ETA: 2014
1. Dylan Bundy, RHP, Baltimore Orioles
10 of 10Position: RHP
Height/Weight: 6'1", 200
DOB: 11/15/1992
Bats/Throws: S/R
Drafted/Signed: 2011, first round (HS: Owasso, Okla.)
2012 Stats
Low-A: 20 IP, 0.00 ERA, 2 H, 23 K/2 BB, .032 BAA (6 GS)
Overview: In any draft not loaded with elite collegiate arms like Cole, Hultzen and Bauer, Bundy would have been a consensus No. 1 overall selection. However, he slid to No. 4, and the Baltimore Orioles were thrilled. Famous for his insane workout routine, the right-hander has a ridiculous work ethic and strength for an 18-year-old.
Oh yeah, and his pitchability grades through the roof.
Lured away from a scholarship to be the Texas Longhorns' quarterback, Bundy signed for $6.225 million (including a $4 million signing bonus) just before the August 15 deadline.
He features a 94-98 mph four-seam fastball that has topped out at 100 mph, as well as a low-90s two-seamer and upper-80s/low-90s cutter. In addition to his slew of fastballs, Bundy possesses a deuce that already grades as a plus pitch, and he has shown an advanced feel for his changeup.
His sheer strength allows for repeatable mechanics and a greater workload than one expects from a prep arm. Both his maturity and arsenal of plus pitches should make Bundy a fast riser within the Orioles organization and make him the first prep arm from the 2011 draft class to reach the show.
This season, Bundy has emerged as somewhat of a legend through his first five starts, as he’s only allowed four batters to reach over 20 innings. Expect a promotion to High-A very, very soon.
ETA: 2014
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