Is Depending on Free Agent Splashes Now a Death Sentence in Baseball?

Early in the 2012 season, teams that signed top free agents haven't benefited from adding new, high-priced talent to their rosters.

Making big splashes in free agency have left big-spending clubs looking mostly all wet after the first five weeks of the season. Is this an indication that backing up a truck full of bucks for the best available players in baseball is a counterproductive move? By shelling out huge contracts, are teams hurting their chances more than boosting them? 

So far, it's looking that way. But this is something that will obviously have to be revisited in the weeks and months to come. 

But after 30 or more games, these are three notable examples of big spending resulting in bigger disappointment.

Los Angeles Angels

The Angels are the most disappointing team in baseball. With a 13-19 record, the Halos are the caboose on the AL West train, already 7.5 games behind the Texas Rangers after 31 games.

The poster child for the feathers coming off the Angels' wings, of course, is Albert Pujols and the 10-year, $240 million mega deal that rocked the baseball world last December.  

Perhaps you've heard that the transaction hasn't quite paid off yet for the Angels. Going into Wednesday night's game against the Minnesota Twins, Pujols has a .190/.228/.281 slash average with nine RBI. He didn't hit his first home run of the year until this past Sunday, five weeks into the season. 

But if you're of the belief that hitters hit (I would be among those believers), then you expect Pujols to turn it around eventually. But Tuesday's 0-for-4 showed that he still has much work to do, and it's looking increasingly likely that Pujols just isn't going to put up the numbers we're accustomed to seeing from him this season.

Miami Marlins

The Marlins had the most buzz surrounding them this winter as they pursued every big-name free agent, hoping to make a huge splash to go along with their new ballpark, new uniforms and new manager. 

Though the Marlins have won six of their last seven games, pushing them into the melee that the NL East standings have become, they're still 15-15 and hold fourth place. 

Jose Reyes, the team's $106 million shortstop, has a .629 OPS and performed so poorly in his customary leadoff spot that Marlins manager Ozzie Guillen briefly took him out of it. 

Detroit Tigers

If the Angels rocked baseball by signing Pujols, the Tigers shocked the sport by coming out of nowhere to sign Prince Fielder to a nine-year, $214 million deal for a position that was already manned by an MVP candidate in Miguel Cabrera.

Fielder hasn't been a disappointment, though many Tigers fans would say he's been quietly productive. A .318/.398/.486 slash average is certainly not terrible by any measure.

However, his bat hasn't been explosive. Five home runs and 15 RBI aren't quite the monster numbers that were expected from one of the top free agent sluggers available. The five homers are tied for eighth in the majors, while his 15 RBI are tied for the 15th-highest total. 

Most importantly, the Tigers are currently two games out of first place in the AL Central with a 15-14 record. Their 123 runs are one of the lowest totals in the American League, resulting in them being outscored by two runs on the season.

Big Payrolls Sitting Out the Postseason?

Let's look at this another way. In order, the top five payrolls in MLB belong to the New York Yankees, Philadelphia Phillies, Angels, Rangers and Tigers. Consequently, those five teams are typically those in hottest pursuit of the biggest names in free agency, with a willingness to take a risk on a huge contract that might become an albatross in later years.

However, if the season ended today (and let's be glad it isn't ending today), each of the five teams listed above—the biggest spenders in baseball—would not make the playoffs. 

Will that scenario continue through to the end of the season? No, very likely not. The current standings are more of a curiosity than reality at this point.

But it does underline the argument that teams don't need payrolls in excess of $130 million to succeed.

As much as haters of the Yankees and Red Sox might disagree, you cannot simply buy a winning baseball team. Development and savvy roster assembly are still keys to putting together a playoff contender.

Spending money can fill (and cover) many holes, as well as gloss over mistakes, but it's certainly not the utmost solution. Ultimately, mega contracts might end up crippling a team's payroll flexibility, handcuffing general managers from building complete teams around their superstars. 

Spend Smart, Not Big

All this isn't meant to say that general managers shouldn't pursue free agents. Some lower-cost hitters have worked out quite well for their teams. Carlos Beltran (two years, $36 million) is having a fine season for the St. Louis Cardinals. Josh Willingham (three years, $21 million) has cooled off after a blistering start for the Minnesota Twins, but is still providing good production. 

Maybe the best approach is to spend on pitching. Pujols hasn't worked out for the Angels thus far, but the other free agent the team signed has performed well. C.J. Wilson (five years, $77.5 million) currently has a 4-2 record, 2.61 ERA and 39 strikeouts in 41.1 innings. 

Yu Darvish (six years, $60 million) is 4-1 with a 2.54 ERA and 44 strikeouts in 39 innings. (His 27 walks are a concern, but Darvish is clearly the pitcher the Rangers thought they were getting when they paid a $51.7 million posting fee to win the bidding for his services. 

Mark Buehrle has a 2-4 record with the Marlins, but his 2.83 ERA shows that run support has been more of an issue than individual performance. Buehrle's lineup needs to score more runs for him. 

Lower-cost signings such as Erik Bedard with the Pirates, Edwin Jackson with the Nationals and Joe Saunders with the Arizona Diamondbacks have also worked out nicely for those particular teams. 

But closers should probably be avoided.

Heath Bell (three years, $27 million) has been a disaster to this point for the Marlins, compiling four blown saves and an 11.42 ERA with 10 walks in 8.2 innings. Ryan Madson (one year, $8.5 million) blew out his elbow and won't pitch for the Cincinnati Reds this year. Joe Nathan (two years, $14.5 million) has pitched decently for the Rangers, but can't be used frequently, which isn't ideal for a closer. 

What Have We Learned?

So, is depending on splashy free agent signings a sure way to kill the fortunes of your baseball team? If you're expecting one player to carry a franchise and gloss over deficiencies and mistakes that the club made previously, then yes, it's probably a death sentence.

But if that big-ticket superstar complements a quality roster already assembled, then the signing is more likely to work out.

All things being equal, however, it still seems far smarter to spread free agent money out and fill several holes on a team, rather than try and plug those gaps with one giant cork.

If you look at the current MLB standings, those are the teams currently leading their divisions and surprising observers. They've also allowed themselves the opportunity to build on that success in years to come. 

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