Roger Federer Faces Mighty Obstacle in Milos Raonic at Madrid

There have already been a few thoughts on Milos Raonic’s chances against Roger Federer in their upcoming second-round clash: how the Canadian who has enjoyed thus far a breakthrough year in 2012 seems to be getting better, how great his serve and game are, how he has the chance to become tennis’s next big thing.

And what of Federer himself?

It's too easy, with all the success he’s enjoyed, simply to dismiss this as a match he should be winning. "Should be winning," however, has arguably been out of the question, and irrevocably so, since the occurrence of such scarring defeats as his five-set loss to Jo-Wilfred Tsonga at Wimbledon last year, who not only beat him at that venue, but did so from a two-set deficit.

The man he faces tomorrow will certainly not be the best opponent to slide smoothly into the clay-court season, and he, in fact, plays somewhat like Tsonga. We know of Raonic enough from hype and his recent success: a big serve and confident groundstrokes. He is quintessentially the tennis player of this decade, following on the heels of other towering men as Juan Martin Del Potro and John Isner.

It is a match Federer will hope to dominate on his own serve, with Raonic swinging lanky limbs that could get in his way when making speedy returns or overextended baseline rallies. The play one expects will be the sort of mobile, vibrant tennis Federer plays against players over six-feet—moving Raonic around the blue clay, and, in his mind, hopefully making him slip around uncomfortably on it.

Of course, with the blue clay allegedly (at least to Novak Djokovic and a few others) possessing an unclay-like bounce, Federer would hope that this match doesn’t turn out like his last on this surface (a four-set loss to Isner at Davis Cup on a clay court that also elicited highly suspect bounces).

For the mighty Federer, though, victory will be sweet and significant. Were Raonic to gain the upper hand in this match it would only confirm suspicions Federer is keen to suppress: that one Raonic and his brand of power, all-round tennis is the future of the sport, and that he is on the downslide. It would be a relief, for one, because Federer would then have a relatively playable draw up to the semis and a shot therefore at gaining some ground on Nadal’s No. 2 ranking.  

For sure, many are excited about a possible upset. Raonic dismantled the Argentine David Nalbandian—himself a man of genuine top-five pedigree and with one of the best eyes for the return of serve—in straights, and there would certainly be many shock waves victory here would unleash for him. Definitely, the conditions favour him and his serve. Maybe even the low-bouncing clay. 

However, there is more drama and excitement, one suspects, for Federer’s potential resurgence on clay, and here at Madrid, against Raonic, it would have to start after five weeks off the tour.

Undoubtedly, this could be a pivotal match in the 2012 seasons of both men. Raonic aims for a career-defining victory, and Federer aims for a chance to extend his recent dominant form onto clay. There is history between these two, with Federer having edged a three-set victory at Indian Wells this year, and he would know what to expect.

Even if we cannot anymore expect "should-be wins" from the Swiss maestro, we would at the least expect him to have internalised, from his last win over Raonic, certain critical winning rhythms.

Enough so to prevail in the end.