What to Expect from Jets 2012 Third Round Pick Demario Davis

It didn't take long for Jets third-round linebacker Demario Davis to earn some high praise.

"He reminds me of Ray (Lewis)," Jets head coach Rex Ryan said after the Jets first rookie minicamp according to the Star-Ledger. 

And with that, the comparisons begin.

While the long-term return on Davis remains to be seen, the early impact of Lewis shouldn't be expected, should it?

To see exactly what to expect, we'll need to draw on the past. Taking a look at the linebackers drafted between the years 2003 and 2011 and were selected within 10 picks on either side of Davis, who was drafted 77th overall, should help us get an idea.

A sample size of 27 linebackers should be ample enough to create a baseline—not a prediction—for third-round linebacker performance.

The average stat line for a linebacker in his rookie year selected between Nos. 67 and 87 was 11 games, 4.2 starts, 32.1 tackles, 0.3 sacks, 0.2 interceptions and 0.3 forced fumbles.

Their long-term duration in the NFL has been rather short, though, with 13 of the 27 linebackers—nearly half—lasting five years or less in the league. In fact, only nine linebackers have served as primary starter on their team for more than one season. 

But most of the linebackers between 2003 and 2007 didn't produce in their rookie years, with just six of them yielding more than 30 tackles. 

The ones who did produce found their careers to be fruitful. Lance Briggs, Channing Crowder and Kirk Morrison are three shining examples of talented linebackers to come out of the third round, all of whom were team leaders from their very first year.

Briggs has been a lock for the Pro Bowl, being selected seven times, and is a former All-Pro as well. Morrison has been productive, but has never played for a winning team or been a part of a top-notch defense. Crowder was much the same, but helped the 2009 Dolphins finish ranked ninth in scoring in his fourth year.

Three of the six linebackers on the list were primary starters in their first year with the team, with Donald Butler becoming a starter when he returned from an injury that kept him out for his rookie season. And Butler was immediately productive for the Chargers.

Summary

History isn't littered with third-round linebackers that conjure up memories of Ray Lewis (although Lance Briggs would like to debate that statement) but if his work ethic and intensity are anything like Ray's, there's no reason to believe he can't do it; he has the skill set and the talent to be a big part of the Jets defense going forward.

The most recent history suggests that Demario Davis should enjoy early success and should contribute to the defense in a big way, even if his role as a starter is threatened by the presence of Bart Scott as a first- and second-down linebacker. 

Davis can take solace knowing that one day, he'll likely earn that starting role in place of Scott.

Follow @ErikFrenz.