Madrid Draw 2012: Federer, Nadal, Djokovic Face Upsetting Hurdles

Aside from the startling blue clay, Madrid will once again be startling, in 2012, for its line-up. Perhaps there are few other Masters series tournaments worth hyping up as much, with the draw once again packed with stellar talent, and with everybody eager for some clay action. No offense to the Monte Carlo Masters from a fortnight ago, but the draw here seems to forecast some unusually spicy matches.

It’s the Big Three ruling the house again, with Andy Murray having withdrawn from a back injury. World No. 1 Novak Djokovic plays here for the first time as the top seed, and while he would still be reeling from grief at his grandfather’s passing, and a loss to Nadal in the Monte Carlo final, he needs a good showing for a shot at the French Open in a month. He should face anyone, from Wawrinka, Lopez, Simon, Baghdatis, or Tipsarevic en route to the semis; soft threats, perhaps, but they should make for entertaining viewing.

Further intrigue is to be found on Djokovic’s other half, where resides third seed Roger Federer. The Swiss could find trouble from Raonic, who plays a game that could potentially unseat anybody; Nalbandian, who can beat him; Gasquet, who beat him last year on clay; or clay court mini-titans Ferrer and Almagro. For Federer it's yet another opportunity to shine while the dark clouds seem to be setting in.

The diametrical opposite half of the draw to Djokovic’s sees his current arch-rival for the tennis throne, Rafael Nadal, scheming for a quick trip to the final. He might face lotteryman Ivo Karlovic, and potential troublemakers in Davydenko, Berdych, Monfils, or Verdasco, who are excellent players, were it not for the fact that they really are, in Nadal’s universe, just men who are perpetually nearly-there.

Who would Nadal’s semifinal opponent be? The third quarter, which Murray lately abandoned, proves the most interesting. Isner could play Cilic and Del Potro, Tsonga, countryman Llodra, American challenger Harrison, or the rising Dolgopolov. It could come down to a clash between Tsonga and, one suspects on form, either Isner or Delpo. Either of the latter two could ambush clay-king Nadal—Isner nearly beat him at the French last year, while Del Potro has a game that makes him tick.

If the spiciness of the draw isn’t too clear yet, it should be known that just in the second round one might see Federer-Nalbandian, Nadal-Davydenko clashes. Of course, the big news from the Big Three’s perspective is that Federer gets to play Djokovic, not Nadal, in the semis. This could have big implications for the tournament – a Federer-Nadal final, perhaps? – and rankings; a big Feerer surge could diminish Djokovic’s number one star, and raise his, or Nadal’s (depending on whether he wins the final). This is sheer speculation, but worthy speculation, because it could begin to tell a story for the second half of 2012.

Madrid is where the real clay court season begins, and with anxiety over whether the blue clay really does even play like clay, its fair to say we could be in for a bit of an upset in plans.