Kentucky Derby Odds 2012: Definitive Guide to Picking a Winner

The Kentucky Derby is one of the most difficult events to predict in sports. Anything can and will happen in what is widely known as the most exciting two minutes in sports.

Odds are always a great place to start when looking for the potential winner for the big race. The betting lines typically show a deep understanding of horse and jockey, along with a variety of other factors that can contribute to a horse winning the race.

The odds are, of course, not always great at predicting winners. That is part of what makes the race so much fun. The propensity for an underdog that was given no shot to win is something that makes for a fantastic event.

One factor that plays into the creation of the odds is the weather the day of the race. It’s projected to be hot and humid, which could put some horses at a major disadvantage.

Another factor that helps create odds is how far horses have to travel to simply reach the race. Horses that have a lengthy trip can at times be fatigued enough by the journey to simply not have enough gas to win the entire race.

Past history also plays a role in determining odds. If a horse that is entering the race already has a variety of wins, then it will likely stand a higher chance of winning the Kentucky Derby. Likewise, if a jockey has historically performed well at the race, then that will improve his horse's chances as well.

Finally, post position is a major factor when attempting to pick a winner. Historically, each position is not equal. Some are prone to being clustered with other horses, while other positions can actually shorten the length of the race.

When a post position fits the needs of a horse perfectly, that drastically increases the chances of a horse to win.

Also keep in mind that some post positions just don’t win a majority of the time. For example, the 17 and 19 positions have never won, while 90 winners have come from gates one to 10. It’s safe to say a smart bet would be placing money on a horse running out of the first 10 gates.

When looking at the entirety of the field, there are a few horses that clearly don’t stand a chance. The horses at the 17 and 19 spots, Done Talking and I’ll Have Another, respectively, don’t have history on their side.          

The No. 18 and 20 spots are historically bad as well and are occupied this year by horses that didn’t have much of a chance to begin with anyway, Sabercat and Liaison, respectively.

There are bad bets like the ones listed above, and then there are the smart bets that have a real shot at winning the Run for the Roses this year.

Betting with Dullahan, who occupies the No. 5 spot, would be a smart play. Dullahan is the best closer in the race, and the post position plays perfectly to the horse's strengths. This horse won’t get lost in the midst of the crowd and will have the endurance to compete with any of the other horses down the stretch. Dullahan’s odds currently stand at 8-1.

If one is looking for an underdog story, look no further than Gemologist running out of the 15 spot. History has actually been kind to the position in recent years, and the spot perfectly suits Gemologist’s abilities. Despite the position, Gemologist has sound 6-1 odds, so it would be a smart play.

Bodemeister and Union Rags are, of course, two of the horses widely expected to win the race. Bodemeister landed in the sixth-post position, and Union Rags is in the fourth. Both are solid positions that ply to the strengths of the horses, but there is also the potential for them to get lost in the pack.

Despite that potential, Union Rags is listed at 9-2 odds, with Bodemeister at a sound 4-1. Both would still be smart bets for someone trying to play it safe.

Finally, if a betting man is looking for both history and talent on his side, one would have to look no further than the third-post position with Take Charge Indy.

Take Charge Indy is a fine horse, but it’s the jockey who matters here. Calvin Borel, the three-time Kentucky Derby champion, has landed in one of his favorite positions and is looking to move into second place on the all-time win list at the Kentucky Derby.

Take Charge Indy is currently sitting pretty with sound 15-1 odds and is an extremely safe bet.

Picking a winner of the Kentucky Derby is an inexact science because there are so many exciting variables that could influence the race.

This year there doesn’t seem to be a clear-cut favorite to win, which makes the event all the more interesting, albeit frustrating for the betting man.

In the end the winner likely won’t be predicted by many. Utilizing the guide above to determine which factors are important, however, could allow you to pick the winner most won’t see coming.

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