Kentucky Derby Odds 2012: Rousing Sermon and Longshots Not Worth Gambling on

Just three years ago, Mine That Bird became the second-longest shot to ever win the Kentucky Derby when he came from out of nowhere late. That victory changed the mentality of many bettors, as it had seemingly become easier for unheralded horses to win the biggest races.

The horses who are touted as elite are obviously still going to get much of the play, but there is often little harm in throwing a couple of bucks in the direction of a longshot with interesting factors working in its favor.

With that said, betting on a horse simply because he's 50-1 isn't a good idea, because that will likely end up being a losing endeavor.

Here are three of the Kentucky Derby's biggest longshots that you shouldn't give a second thought to when placing your bets on Saturday. 

Rousing Sermon (50-1)

There is no doubt that every horse has its strong points, but when compared to the rest of the field, Rousing Sermon simply doesn't measure up.

At 50-1, he is a longshot for good reason. His track record wouldn't seem to indicate that he can compete. He hasn't won a race since October and he has twice finished behind fellow longshot Liaison in the lead up to the run for the roses.

On top of that, Rousing Sermon suffers from a lack of continuity. He will be ridden by Jose Lezcano for the first time on Saturday, and I have to believe that such unfamiliarity can only be viewed as a negative.

He was blown away by favorites like Creative Cause and Bodemeister at the San Felipe Stakes a couple of months ago, and there is little reason to think that will change. 

Done Talking (50-1)

Done Talking is an interesting horse at 50-1, so it would be easy to get suckered into placing a bet on him, but that wouldn't be a smart move. Although he's coming off a win in the Illinois Derby, and has three career wins, he is fairly inexperienced compared to the other horses and hasn't competed in many high-stakes races.

He was dominated in the Gotham Stakes in March, where he finished 10th, and doesn't seem to have the tools to compete.

Jockey Sheldon Russell rode him to victory in his last race, but Russell simply can't measure up to legends like Calvin Borel, Kent Desormeaux and Mike Smith.

Done Talking has routinely been outclassed by other horses in the Kentucky Derby field when he has had a chance to race against them. Therefore, like Rousing Sermon, his chances are awfully slim.

Optimizer (50-1)

It would be easy to fall into the trap of liking Optimizer, since he is trained by the legendary D. Wayne Lukas, but the stars haven't aligned very well for him.

Optimizer would have been much better off with an outside position, but he drew the No. 2 spot, which means he'll likely have to get out early and set the pace. The issue with that, however, is that he won't be able to keep up with the likes of Trinniberg and Bodemeister in that regard.

On top of that, Optimizer has won only once and that came last August on turf. He wasn't competitive at all in the Arkansas Derby and finished ninth in that race, which was won by Bodemeister.

He's had a chance to settle in with his jockey Jon Court over the past couple of races, but Optimizer simply seems doomed from the start with his lackluster positioning.