NBA Western Conference Finals Preview

And then there were four.

With the exception of the Cleveland Cavaliers—winners of the "losers bracket" in the Eastern Conference—the teams still alive in the NBA playoffs are clearly the cream of the league's crop.

Why?

 ...Because each has a number of young superstars who show as much intelligence, integrity, and heart as they do sheer talent.

...Because each eschewed the more appealing "fun-n-gun" style of basketball for discipline, precision, and execution—trademarks of championship teams.

...Because each realizes that there's more to defense than simply gambling for steals.

...Because each understands that 5-on-5 basketball works better than 1-on-1.

...Because each stepped up its game against imposing second-round opponents instead of taking shortcuts or backing down.

...Because each knows that the whole is greater than the sum of the parts.

In fairness, even the Cavs played big when it mattered: They slowed down New Jersey's talented backcourt, attacked the offensive glass, and had unlikely heroes (Donyell Marshall, anyone?) make key shots at key times.

So yes, only the best remain. Are these teams fan-friendly? Maybe not to the immature fan who cares only about dunks and crossovers. But those fans will be like their favorite teams come June: watching the NBA Finals at home on television.

And if they're not entertained, I hear 24 is a thrilling show.

In any event, this is the time of year when teams need to put down the Red Bull and put on their thinking caps. It's a chess match from here on out...and only those squads with the moxie to outmaneuver the competition have a shot to be the king. 

 

 

San Antonio vs. Utah

Like any other series, the Western Conference Finals will come down to matchups. Unfortunately for Utah, the obvious edge belongs to the Spurs.

The cyborg known as Tim Duncan destroyed Kurt Thomas in the Suns-Spurs series. Given that Thomas' defensive technique is vastly superior to Carlos Boozer's, it's hard to imagine Boozer slowing down Duncan very much—if at all.

Boozer certainly is bruising, but he doesn't have the length to bother Duncan's release on turnaround bank shots. Timmy D's quickness off the dribble means that he can give a head fake and drive for a layup if Boozer overplays him.

Mehmet Okur is a strong, smart defender—but like Boozer doesn't have the wingspan or the hops to pester Duncan. Look for Mehmet to get taken off the dribble by the Spurs' big man.

Utah's best option would be to double Duncan, probably with Andrei Kirilenko. Kirilenko remembered he was a basketball player at some point during the Houston series—and his gumby-like arms, incredible leaping ability, and lightning-fast hands can at least force Duncan to get rid of the ball.

The trick is knowing when to double. Duncan is patient enough to find a cutter or an open shooter when he gets doubled on the catch. If you double him on the dribble, he may be quick enough to get to the basket before help arrives.

The Jazz might also decide to front Duncan—but San Antonio would respond by going into a 1-4 and clearing out the weak side. A perfect lob over the top would create a race to the basket between Duncan and a rotating defender...and Utah doesn't have much foot speed.

But hey: Nobody said stopping Duncan would be easy.

My vote would be for doubling Duncan on the dribble. Doing so with Kirilenko (and occasionally Matt Harpring, Gordon Giricek, Deron Williams, and Derek Fisher) gives Utah a viable chance to create turnovers while getting the ball out of Duncan's hands.

Under that scenario, the series would hinge on outside shooters making outside shots—and Tony Parker, Brent Barry, Bruce Bowen, Michael Finley, and Robert Horry have all been spot-on in the clutch this postseason.

The perimeter matchups are intriguing. Harpring, Giricek, and Fisher aren't especially fast, but all three are tenacious defenders when they can stay in front. Whichever player gets matched on Manu Ginobli will look to overplay him and force him right. If Kirilenko is in the area, Ginobli will be forced to finish under heavy duress.

Parker, on the other hand, can dribble with his left and is much too fast for any Utah guard. Williams will have to rely on strength and technique to hang with TP; one misstep and Parker will be at the basket before Williams turns his head.

Finley can still hit jumpers with his feet set, but has become ineffective if forced to shoot on the move. Expect him to be crowded and neutralized.

Horry will present matchup problems for whoever guards him. If it's a guard, he'll get taken in the post. If it's Kirilenko, Horry will play opposite Duncan, forcing Kirilenko to cover a lot of ground on the double. And if the ball is reversed back to Horry, look for him to shoot over closing guards all series long.

When Utah has the ball, they'll generally run high screen/rolls for Williams and Boozer, with occasional basket cuts for Williams, post-ups for Harpring, and elbow clear-outs for Boozer.

And since Jerry Sloan is still on the bench, you can be sure the Jazz will also run numerous dive cuts, back cuts, diagonal cuts, cut fades, screen/fades, weak-side screens, and give-and-go's...with any player at any time.

Out of a 1-4, Utah likes to have Williams cut to the basket before setting a back screen for Boozer. With the weak side cleared out, Boozer can simply spin to the basket and catch lobs for dunks whenever he wants.

The Jazz, however, are one of the worst passing teams in the NBA. San Antonio will take advantage of that fact—and the fact that only Williams and Boozer are dangerous off the dribble—by crowding every Utah player. Utah's ability to make crisp decisions under pressure will be a vital factor in the series.

Look for Boozer to be stymied given the fact that, unlike Yao Ming (too big) and Stephen Jackson (too small), Tim Duncan has just the right set of physical tools to defend Boozer's powerful-yet-speedy drives to the hoop.

Bruce Bowen and Matt Harpring will engage in boxing matches all over the court, with Bowen also getting some time against Williams. When Bowen isn't guarding Harpring, Harpring will cut to the post and punish whichever lithe Spur is defending him.

Kirilenko's drives will be contained by whoever defends him. Only if AK-47 is hitting his jumpers will he be a factor offensively.

Prediction

The Jazz just don't have the athleticism to put a dent in the Spurs' defensive armor. If Phoenix was forced to labor against San Antonio, Utah will have to work twice as hard...and will probably be twice as ineffective.

Sloan and Gregg Popovich are two of the best chess masters in the NBA—but Utah's pieces are just too limited, almost as if they can only move one space at a time. Duncan, meanwhile, is the ultimate chess piece, capable of maneuvering around the board at will.

Utah's lack of athleticism will get them checkmated. There's a better chance of the Jazz getting swept than of the series going to six games.

Spurs in five.

 

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