Mariano Rivera Breakdown: Fantasy Moves to Counter Closer's Season-Ending Injury
Twelve hours later, I still can't believe it.
The unfortunate sight of Yankees closer and future Hall of Famer Mariano Rivera tearing his knee (ACL) while shagging fly balls in batting practice on Thursday, before the Royals and Yankees started a four-game series, still has me searching for answers.
Of my recollection, it may be the most bizarre on-field, pregame injury involving a star player since Vince Coleman's ghastly encounter with a tarp-rollout machine during the 1985 National League Championship Series.
This blog entry isn't about celebrating Rivera's indomitable career (all-time record 608 saves, five World Series titles, the greatest out pitch of my lifetime), speculating on whether he'll return to baseball in 2013 (at age 43) or even lamenting the Yankees' bad luck with injuries this season (Rivera, Michael Pineda, Brett Gardner).
This piece should focus on the one thing we can control right now—the Rivera effect with fantasy rosters.
Who Will Be the Yankees' New Closer—Rafael Soriano or David Robertson?
If George Steinbrenner were alive today (Bill Madden's book, The Last Lion Of Baseball, is an absolute must-read), I'm pretty sure the guy with the three-year, $35 million contract (Soriano) would get first crack at closing duties in Rivera's stead.
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But noted Yankee cool-heads, manager Joe Girardi and GM Brian Cashman, might stump for Robertson for two reasons:
1. Robertson (0.00 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, 18/3 K/BB in 11 appearances) has better numbers than Soriano (2.00 ERA, 1.89 WHIP).
2. It may be harder to replace the continuity of Soriano's regular appearances than the hard-to-predict save opportunity. That way, the New York bullpen theoretically would incur only one dramatic shift if Robertson simply leapfrogged Soriano for the fireman's role.
Factoring in the Other 29 MLB Teams, Who's the Best Free-Agent Closer Available in 12-Team Leagues?
For head-to-head leagues with short benches and greater emphasis on starting pitching, quality closers like Chris Perez (3.38 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, nine saves), Huston Street (1.00 ERA, 0.44 WHIP, four saves), Brett Myers (1.17 ERA, 0.52 WHIP, six saves) and Washington's Henry Rodriguez (1.64 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, six saves) should be available, with zero restrictions.
In order, I'd want Perez, Rodriguez, Myers and Street.
For roto leagues, however, the pool is noticeably thinner. Outside of Soriano or Robertson (depending on whoever closes), your best bets may be:
- Edward Mujica, Marlins (the presumed closer-in-waiting if Heath Bell falters)
- Ernesto Frieri, Angels (role for newly acquired reliever still not defined)
- Juan Cruz, Pirates (Joel Hanrahan might be attractive pre-deadline trade bait)
- Pedro Strop, Orioles (posting solid numbers for Baltimore's vastly improved bullpen)
- Joel Peralta, Rays (you never know how long the Fernando Rodney carnival will last in Tampa)
Is It Worth Trying to Replace Rivera's Saves via Free Agency or Trade? Or Should Fantasy GMs Just Concentrate on Overall Pitching?
In 12-team roto leagues with 25-man rosters, most owners shoot for owning two or three closers and a setup handcuff to one of the closers.
In essence, they're doing the acceptable minimum to avoid finishing last in saves, allowing roster space for seven viable starters or highly effective long relievers to flourish in the other four categories.
If Rivera was one of three closers on your squad, and you're looking good for third, fourth, fifth or sixth place in saves by season's end, it may not be prudent to roster the Yankees' new setup man (Robertson/Soriano)...or Mujica, Frieri, Cruz or Strop from the above listing.
Ultimately, it comes down to this for owners: Come late September, will I need saves more than a starting pitcher's assistance with ERA, strikeouts and wins?
Bottom line: In some perverse way, Rivera's season-ending, perhaps career-threatening injury might be the impetus to stage a fresh rally in wins and strikeouts—a movement that might have been curtailed if Rivera was still anchoring real-world and fantasy bullpens.
Jay Clemons can be reached on Twitter, day or night, at @ATL_JayClemons.






