Kentucky Derby Post Positions 2012: Favorites Who Will Be Doomed by Draw

The Kentucky Derby post positions have been announced, and the difference between a good and bad draw can be killer.

For example, in the last 110 years only two winners have come from the No. 14 spot (courtesy of Joe Fortenbaugh via Twitter).

But possibly the most intriguing stat about the pole position comes from NBC Sports Network:

"

88 of the 137 Kentucky Derby Winners have started from gates 1-10. Want to pick a winner this year? It starts with the DRAW 5et #DERBYonNBC

— NBC Sports Network (@NBCSN) May 2, 2012"

That means that 64 percent of the winners come from the Top 10 positions, which is bad news for these favorites.

A complete list of the post positions can be found at the Kentucky Derby official website or here. 

Hansen (No. 14)

As I mentioned earlier, the No. 14 spot is essentially jinxed. That means Hansen (14/1) is going to have to overcome quite a bit to pull off the victory.

Of course, the three-year-old was starting to lose steam after losing to Dullahan at the Grade-1 Blue Grass Stakes last month, but he was a favorite nonetheless. 

Hansen is a good closer, but has often struggled out of the gate. This position is going to make things even tougher for him at the beginning stretch. Don't expect anything near the Top 3 for Michael J. Maker's horse. 

Gemologist (No. 15)

At 7/1, Gemologist is the apple of most pundits' eyes going into Churchill on Sunday. 

And honestly, why not? 

The three-year-old colt has won all five of it's races, and that includes a win at the Grade-1 Wood Memorial, which was an impressive one-and-one-eighth mile track. He's certainly proven he is capable of winning the big, long race.

Nonetheless, the No. 15 position will be a killer. Gemologist is a speedster and benefits from getting to the front of the pack, but it will be difficult for him to make that happen from so far to the outside. 

Alpha (No. 11)

Alpha, the horse who finished second to Gemologist at the Wood Memorial, also has the misfortune of starting from outside the Top 10 positions.

At 11-to-1, this speedy colt certainly has a chance to make some noise, but he got sawed off during the early stages of the Wood Memorial and that could happen again. 

I don't have much confidence in Kiaran McLaughlin's horse.