Kentucky Derby 2012: The Definitive Guide to Placing Your Bets

There is no guaranteed formula when picking the Kentucky Derby, but there are certainly different trends and philosophies to focus on from year to year.

Here are a few do’s and don’ts to consider when making your picks for the 138th annual Kentucky Derby.

(A full list of the post positions and odds can be found at the official Kentucky Derby page.)

Pick Multiple Long Shots

Aside from a few stand outs (Union Rags, Bodemeister), the favorites are a very shallow field. The 20-horse race is truly wide open.

That means the value is in some of the longshots. Horses like El Padrino (20-1) and Daddy Long Legs (30-1) both come in with question marks, but both have the breakaway speed to run away with the win.

Why not put a flyer on both of them? Placing less money on more horses is the smart way to bet with this field.

Ignore the Trends

How such and such horse runs at such and such track is more often than not worthless in the Derby. The sample size is too small to really give them any true meaning. Even if they are long-lasting trends, they don’t have merit since the sport has changed so much in recent years.

So don’t be fooled by Bodemeister’s attempt to become the first horse since 1882 to win the Derby without racing as a two-year-old, and don’t become mesmerized by Gemologist's undefeated record. Just because he’s 5-0 doesn’t mean a top-three finish is in store.

Look For Horses with Stamina and Speed in Their Pedigree

Some 13 of the last 19 Kentucky Derbys have featured first- or second-place finishes with Buckpasser in their bloodline. With the layout of the track, don’t be mesmerized by the speed demon that could potentially flameout by the finishing line.

Keep an Eye on the Weather

This one is a rather obvious one, but make sure the forecast is rainy if you plan on putting money down on a horse like El Padrino.

Be Careful of Volatile Personalities

Alpha is one of the favorites (12-1), but he has a tendency to get riled up at times right before a race.

Sure, his long strides and strong record (three wins, two second-place finishes) makes him appealing, but how will Alpha react to the insanity of the Kentucky Derby crowd?

That’s a risk I’m not willing to take.

Follow Eric Ball on Twitter.