Fantasy Baseball 2012: Top 15 Waiver-Wire Pickups for Week 5

The following slideshow touts the top 15 waiver-wire pickups right now, a countdown of the best free agents from the majority of 12-team roto leagues.

For the most part, this list rewards players who have already fostered productive starts to the 2012 season.

Savvy readers will notice the rankings are different from last week's offering, and that can be attributed to the waiver-wire graduations of A.J. Burnett, Adam LaRoche, Jake Arrieta, Jason Hammel and the suddenly reborn Chris Davis—forgotten assets on draft day but now contributing pieces with their current teams.

That's how it should be with this list: Here today, gone tomorrow.

Enjoy the show!

15: (1B/3B) Mark Reynolds, Baltimore Orioles

On 2012 merit alone, Reynolds shouldn't be a waiver-wire consideration in 12- or 14-team leagues. How else could one frame marks of .158 batting and .228 slugging?

But it's not like you'd be inheriting Reynolds' ugly numbers of the last 25 days (zero HRs, three RBI, four runs, zero steals) upon grabbing him off waivers before Monday's games.

You'd simply be taking a low-risk, high-upside gamble on an under-30 physical talent with per-season averages of 28 homers and 13 steals from 2009-11.

And because of that track record...Reynolds earns the last spot in the countdown. But our patience is running thin.

14: (SP) Marco Estrada, Milwaukee Brewers

There is some trepidation with this pick.

Yes, Estrada has the capacity for eight to nine strikeouts every time he takes the hill, but he's also no guarantee to start every five days, even with the season-ending injury to Chris Narveson. But for now, I'll work on the assumption that Estrada (0-1, 3.71 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 18/5 K-BB this year) will only get skipped on rare occasions.

I'll also assume his multi-pitch repertoire, sizzling fastball and rock-solid resume as a pro pitcher (sub-4.00 ERA and 583/219 K-BB ratio) warrants the No. 5 slot in Milwaukee's rotation.

As such, fantasy owners should expect modest success from Estrada...whenever he gets the call.

13: (SP) Erik Bedard, Pittsburgh Pirates

I'll always be a sucker for high-strikeout, low-ERA pitchers...even the ones stuck on non-contending teams.

Without a doubt, Bedard has two fantasy warts to fret about (wins and WHIP), but his start to the season (2.48 ERA, 26/12 K-BB ratio) and top-three status within the Pittsburgh rotation are enough to garner consideration in 12-team leagues.

Bottom line: When healthy, Bedard is a reasonable candidate for 165 strikeouts and sub-3.20 ERA, admirable traits of a No. 6 starter.

12: (Catcher) Nick Hundley, San Diego Padres

Hundley is a viable catching replacement in 12-team leagues on the strength of two factors—his recent tear (.357 batting, two HRs, 10 RBI, six runs since April 15) and entrenched spot in the San Diego lineup, while holding off prospect Yasmani Grandal for the time being.

In NL-only leagues, he's the ideal low-key, medium-upside addition that needs HR/RBI help at an often-overlooked position.

Hunley's also decent trade bait for the GM who rosters two catchers.

11: (OF) Juan Pierre, Philadelphia Phillies

Pierre (.375 batting since April 15) has posted stellar numbers in the last few weeks, but let's be honest: You're not rostering Pierre (68 steals in 2010) on the hope that he'll bat .300 or score 50 runs for the Phillies this season.

To keep his fantasy scholarship for 12-team leagues, Pierre (three steals) needs to steal bases at a more progressive clip from this point forward—at least two per week.

If that should happen, Pierre's per-game efficiency would attract numerous fantasy owners in search of a No. 5 or 6 outfielder.

10: (SP) Wei-Yin Chen, Baltimore Orioles

Most fantasy GMs would kill for a starting pitcher who hasn't allowed three runs in any start for a full month, and yet, Baltimore's Chen (2-0, 2.22 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 19/8 K-BB) is basically there for the taking in hundreds of 12-team leagues.

Am I missing something here? Is there a stigma against foreign players in their first MLB season? Is Chen being taken for granted because he pitches for the Orioles? Or do owners simply fear Chen's frequent encounters with the Red Sox, Yankees, Blue Jays and Rays?

With any luck, this could be Chen's last week in the countdown.

9: (OF) Eric Thames, Toronto Blue Jays

I'm thrilled that Thames, one of my Top 40 sleepers during the preseason, is batting .311 and getting regular left-field reps as a rookie.

But I'd like to see more production in the other categories. I'd like to see longer flashes of fantasy potential from a guy who tallied 27 homers, 104 RBI and 95 runs just two seasons ago (Double-A ball).

After all, it's not like the Blue Jays are deficient in home runs, runs and batting average. In a power-packed lineup, Thames should be awash in five-category opportunities all season.

8: (1B/OF) Brandon Belt, San Francisco Giants

It's been all quiet on the West Coast front with me and Belt in recent weeks, but I'm ready to lead the bandwagon again in his fantasy honor.

Since April 16, the second-year Giant is batting .360. More importantly, he seems to be gaining the long-term trust of the organization, meaning more at-bats during the week and fewer threats of being sent down to Triple-A for, um, seasoning.

The only downside to Belt's progress? His power numbers (zero homers, five RBI) are unacceptable for a corner infielder, so much that I would be worried about Belt's job security at first base in any other team's lineup.

San Francisco doesn't need classic power to be smooth and efficient at the plate.

7: (OF) Dexter Fowler, Colorado Rockies

In previous years, I viewed Fowler as a poor man's fantasy version of Cameron Maybin or Scott Podsednik. But now that Fowler (three HRs, eight RBI, seven runs, one steal, .262 batting since April 16) has better numbers than Maybin (.159 batting in that same span), how should that make me feel?

In 12-team leagues, I'll buy Fowler as a No. 5 or 6 outfielder, even though his on-base percentage is 43 points lower than 2011 and his steals have precipitously declined since 2009 (27 thefts).

The reason: The man has a knack for 14-15 triples every year and a plum lineup spot ahead of Troy Tulowitzki, Carlos Gonzalez and Michael Cuddyer.

In other worlds, 90 runs may be doable.

6: (SP) Tommy Milone, Oakland A's

It's not in my fantasy nature to endorse soft-tossing left-handers. But who am I to deny what Milone (3-1, 2.00 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, 13-3 K-BB) has accomplished in his first month with the A's? And who am I to say it cannot continue for the whole season?

To be fair, Milone has benefited from spacious parks in three of his four outings (two at Oakland, one at Seattle), so perhaps 12-team owners should preach a little patience before going all-in on the rookie just yet.

Or maybe even wait until Milone logs road starts against the Red Sox and Rays this week.

If his numbers are similar this time next week, Milone will rank higher in the countdown.

5: (OF) Bryce Harper, Washington Nationals

The list of major league hitters (since 1900) enjoying respectable "fantasy" numbers in their age-19 seasons is noticeably short—from Ty Cobb (1906), Mel Ott (1928), Mickey Mantle (1951), Tony Conigliaro (1964) and Robin Young (1975) to Ken Griffey Jr. (1989) and Edgar Renteria (1993).

So, it's imperative for fantasy owners to exhibit some patience with this teen sensation, even with the LeBron James-like hype that began long before Harper finished high school. Acknowledge his potential greatness, but don't go overboard on expectations.

Harper seasonal targets: Six homers, 24 RBI, 27 runs, seven steals, .258 batting.

4: (SP) Drew Smyly, Detroit Tigers

The rookie Smyly (1-0, 1.00 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 18/5 K-BB ratio in his last three outings) has done a wonderful job filling in for and replicating the production of injured Tigers pitcher Doug Fister.

In fact, I doubt Smyly would even get bumped from the rotation upon Fister's return (May) and heralded prospect Jacob Turner's likely promotion (around Memorial Day).

In that scenario, Rick Porcello could be the odd man out.

Bottom line: With his propensity for 5-7 strikeout and three or less runs allowed, Smyly has stealthily emerged as a must-have asset in AL-only leagues, and for roto ones, you'd be hard-pressed to find a No. 6 starter with better upside.

3: (SP) Jeff Niemann, Tampa Bay Rays

There are no surprises with Niemann's fantasy game, and for now, I'm taking the positives from that.

Yes, Niemann (1-0, 3.86 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 20/8 K-BB) has yet to pitch in the seventh inning this season; but he's also a solid bet for five strikeouts and only two earned runs allowed.

If Niemann pitched on a losing team, I wouldn't recommend owning him, but with a viable championship contender like the Rays, his per-outing numbers are enough to merit a No. 5 or 6 slot in fantasy rotations—assuming his wins-per-start ratio climbs in May and June.

2: (SP) Anthony Bass, San Diego Padres

I'd feel more secure about Bass' status if he was officially listed as a starter on the Padres' depth chart, but then again, why worry about the club's best real-world and fantasy starter over the last 20 days? He's already played his way into the mix.

In his last three starts, the reliever-turned-starter has racked up 22 strikeouts while posting a 2.37 ERA and 1.11 WHIP. And by watching him on MLB Extra Innings, it's also fun to see Bass' knack for pounding hitters inside and nasty streak on strike-two counts.

Of the seven pitchers listed here, the 24-year-old Bass has the greatest capacity for two or three games of 10 strikeouts this season.

1: (OF) Mike Trout, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

There are greater things to worry about than Trout's 0-for-7 start. Like world peace, the state of the American economy or NBC's Community getting canceled before next fall. (That would be a crying shame.)

Yes, the 20-year-old super-prospect has had a rough start to his second go-round in the major leagues, but his numbers at Triple-A Salt Lake City (.400 batting, .463 OPS, 1.063 OPS) and consensus standing as baseball's next great star should be enough to wait out the kid's adjustment period for a few more days.

The majority of 12-team owners have already exercised patience with Trout as an active-roster stashee on the bench...and now as an everyday outfielder. But trust me, the payoff is coming very soon—in the form of maybe 20 homers and 20 steals by season's end.

Just don't expect a .400 batting average to accompany the 20/20 run.