Todd McShay 2012 NFL Mock Draft: Teams That Won't Take Expert's Advice

As NFL general managers prepare for the first round of the 2012 draft on Thursday, you can be certain that plenty of them won't be paying any attention to what Todd McShay's latest mock draft has to say. 

The ESPN draft expert shuffled some things around prior to Thursday night's first-round action, and while some of it makes sense, some of his projected moves are serious long shots. 

Here's a look at some of McShay's selections that won't be made on Thursday.  

Buffalo Bills Select Luke Kuechly 

As a Boston College fan, I'd love to see Kuechly go in the top 10, but the Bills have so many other needs they need to address before they take a linebacker with their No. 10 overall selection. 

Kuechly is a great linebacker, and he's definitely the best one available this year. There's a reason Kuechly led the nation in tackles in 2011 and earned the Dick Butkus Award. But the Bills cannot let another draft go by where they fail to acquire a solid offensive lineman. 

If Riley Reiff is still available at No. 10, they need to take him.

Reiff ranks just behind Matt Kalil as the second-best left tackle in the draft, and he has the upside to become one of more durable, reliable options in the league. He can serve as the cornerstone of Buffalo's line for the next decade. 

If Reiff isn't available, they must opt for Michael Floyd.

The Bills had the No. 14 passing offense in the NFL in 2011, and that's not good enough when you're competing against New England and New York in the AFC East. If they can't get a top-tier offensive lineman, the Bills need an elite receiver who will make an impact right away, and in that case, Floyd is their guy.  

Jacksonville Jaguars Select Whitney Mercilus

Mercilus is a great kid who had a career year at Illinois in 2011, but he is nowhere near reliable enough to warrant a top-10 selection, particularly given this draft's wealth of talent at defensive end. 

Mercilus was essentially a non-factor for the Illini prior to the 2011 season, when he exploded out of nowhere to lead the nation in sacks with 16. Was Mercilus one of the best defensive ends in the nation in 2011? Yes—as evidenced by his stat line and his Ted Hendricks Award. But has he consistently been one of the best defensive ends over the last three seasons? Absolutely not. 

Mercilus is a high-character guy and a hard worker, but he has not proven conclusively that he's worthy of a top-10 selection—not even close. He just hasn't displayed enough consistency.

There is no way the Jaguars are going to risk using the No. 7 overall pick on him, especially when guys like Melvin Ingram, Chandler Jones and Quinton Coples are still on the board.  

Dallas Cowboys Select Michael Brockers

The Cowboys have a hole to fill on their defensive line, but they have bigger needs in their secondary. With players like Stephon Gilmore, Dre Kirkpatrick and possibly Mark Barron still available, they'll shore up that area rather than go for Brockers. 

The Cowboys have long been searching for the type of shut-down corner that can boost their defense and give them a big playmaker, and there are several viable options that should be on the board by the time they make their No. 14 selection.

Gilmore, who has started every single game at cornerback since his freshman season, makes sense for them. He's mature and hard working with no off-the-field issues and has the top-end speed the Cowboys want at the position. 

If Dallas does opt for a defensive end and Fletcher Cox is still available—as McShay indicates he will be—the Cowboys will opt for him over Brockers. He's the top-rated defensive tackle with elite pass-rushing skills.