2012 NFL Mock Draft: The Final Look into the Crystal Ball Before the Real Thing

Well, here we are. After months of poring over tape and team interest, and a few days of rumors that got crazier by the second, draft day is finally here. Somehow, it feels like the first round is even more uncertain now than it was two months ago. Knowledge in this case can be dangerous—at least to our sanity—but here's a summation of what I think I know, delivered in mock draft format, of course adhering to my rules for a realistic first round.

1. Indianapolis—Andrew Luck, QB, Stanford: The only question now is whether Jim Irsay takes his time to annoy us.

2. Washington (from St. Louis)—Robert Griffin III, QB, Baylor: The trade that got the Redskins here seems like forever ago.

3. Tampa Bay (from Minnesota)—Trent Richardson, RB, Alabama: Vikings GM Rick Spielman's endless efforts to get a quality trade down yields this stroke of genius. Trading down to number five guarantees the Vikings Matt Kalil or Morris Claiborne. Perhaps Tampa GM Mark Dominik will choose to just see how the chips fall because he doesn't have a fourth, and this trade would probably cost a third according to Tampa Bay Times beat writer Rick Stroud, but Dominik has to judge what the difference between Richardson and LSU CB Morris Claiborne is worth, not to mention the possibility that the Vikings do take Claiborne if they stay home and leave the Bucs without either of their top two prospects. Greg Schiano loves to run the ball, and Richardson is the best RB prospect in five years. The Bucs were handing out big contracts in free agency. They are feeling frisky, and this trade fits a team that is aggressive. If no trade happens, the Vikings take Kalil.

4. Cleveland—Justin Blackmon, WR, Oklahoma State: This is the wrong pick for the Browns. I will malign this pick through and through. I just don't feel that they are bold enough to take Ryan Tannehill at No. 4, and the need for offensive playmakers seems to be ruling their draft prep this year. The Browns have probably had Trent Richardson's name written on their draft card in permanent marker since February, but if he goes No. 3, they may lack clarity on what the next move is.

5. Minnesota (from Tampa Bay)—Matt Kalil, OT, USC: How brilliant would Spielman look if he faced the same choice at No. 5 that he originally had at No. 3? I think it would be Kalil here, and it would be Kalil at three.

6. St. Louis (from Washington)—Morris Claiborne, CB, LSU: How tickled is Jeff Fisher when the top corner falls into his lap? Fletcher Cox is the pick over Justin Blackmon if Minnesota stays home and the Browns get Richardson.

7. Philadelphia (from Jacksonville)—Fletcher Cox, DT, Mississippi State: Gene Smith knows he can get a similar quality prospect in the middle of the first to what he'll get here. The Eagles have the ammo to move up, and Cox is the clear top DT in this class, in my book. If Smith is smart, he'll take less than market value for the No. 7 pick because of the vast plateau of blue chip talent that starts at this pick.

8. Miami—Ryan Tannehill, QB, Texas A&M: Will they or won't they? The suspense for this pick will be unbearable, but in the end, I believe they take the last potential franchise QB on the board. If they don't go with Tannehill, I expect Quinton Coples to be the pick.

9. Carolina—Stephon Gilmore, CB, South Carolina: According to Jim Thomas of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, several teams have Gilmore higher than Claiborne. The Panthers sorely need an impact cornerback. If Gilmore doesn't go to the Jaguars, he's likely to land here. Quinton Coples is possible, as is Fletcher Cox if he falls.

10. Dallas (from Buffalo)—Mark Barron, S, Alabama: Yes, I think the Bills smokescreen about Barron is directed at Jerry Jones, and I believe Jones will bite. Buddy Nix is probably happy with Dre Kirkpatrick, Michael Floyd, Riley Reiff, Cordy Glenn—if not more candidates—so a trade down makes too much sense.

11. Kansas City—David DeCastro, OG, Stanford: Maybe the safest pick in the entire first round. I'm not feeling Dontari Poe here. Mark Barron is possible, but I don't buy the late surge in his stock. Another pick where a trade down is definitely in play.

12. Seattle—Melvin Ingram, DE/OLB, South Carolina: A two-way defensive end makes sense, but which one? Courtney Upshaw, Whitney Mercilus, Quinton Coples, even Chandler Jones, whom Seattle Times beat writer Danny O'Neil gave to the team in his mock this morning. I'll be guessing right up until the name is called.

13. Arizona—Riley Reiff, OT, Iowa: After a frenzy of activity ahead of them, the Cardinals sit pat and take a high-floor offensive tackle. Michael Floyd and maybe even Cordy Glenn in play here. One of the less crazy picks to mock in the mid-first, so surely a surprise will come here, right?

14. Buffalo (from Dallas)—Michael Floyd, WR, Notre Dame: That many of Buffalo's possible targets will still be on the board at 14 illustrates just how smart a trade down would be for Buddy Nix. Again, Kirkpatrick and Glenn also make sense for Buffalo. 

15. Jacksonville (from Philadelphia)—Chandler Jones, DE, Syracuse: The Jaguars defense is the pride of the team, and they are an end away from being one of the best in the AFC. Jones is a high-floor, high-motor player that Gene Smith will love. I buy the hype of Jones rising in a class that doesn't have a clear top edge rusher.

16. New York Jets—Quinton Coples, DE, North Carolina: I believe the Jets would have trouble deciding between Coples and Courtney Upshaw in this scenario, but Coples' higher ceiling would win out.

17. Cincinnati (from Oakland)—Courtney Upshaw, DE/OLB, Alabama: Upshaw is a glass eater, a terrific two-way player who can line up as a linebacker or end, a player that Mike Brown would love to add to this defense.

18. Detroit (from San Diego)—Dre Kirkpatrick, CB, Alabama: Kirkpatrick is just too good of a fit in Detroit for Martin Mayhew to chance him getting sniped before No. 23. His physicality and aggressiveness would allow the Lions to capitalize on what their fearsome defensive line can create when they are firing on all cylinders.

19. Chicago—Kendall Wright, WR, Baylor: The speed counterpart needed to unlock more of the potential of the Brandon Marshall acquisition. I don't think they can count on anything from Johnny Knox this year.

20. Tennessee—Whitney Mercilus, DE/OLB, Illinois: The Titans are right in the strike zone for Mercilus, and they should get him.

21. Cincinnati—Michael Brockers, DT, LSU: Brockers could go a lot higher, maybe even in the top 10 to Carolina, but the Bengals would be thrilled to take him as a best player available at 21.

22. Cleveland (from Atlanta)—Doug Martin, RB, Boise State: Martin is unlikely to get in the first round if the Browns take Richardson, but if Tampa leapfrogs them, they could look RB with their second first-round pick.

23. San Diego (from Detroit)—Shea McClellin, DE/OLB, Boise State: Back-to-back Broncos! The Chargers trade down in part because no 3-4 teams pick between their pick and the Lions' pick. McClellin is a high-motor player who will instantly improve the San Diego defense.

24. Pittsburgh—Dont'a Hightower, LB, Alabama: Hightower before Kuechly would be shocking, but there is always at least one shocking development in the first round. Hightower's more rugged game and ability to rush the passer will appeal to the Steelers more than Kuechly's coverage ability and highly disciplined play.

25. Denver—Lamar Miller, RB, Miami (Fla.): Cecil Lammey, my co-host on the Audible, covers the Broncos for 102.3 ESPN, and he has been insistent that the Broncos like Miller. He makes sense for a team in a win-now window. He adds speed and playmaking ability they are lacking in the running game. The Browns taking the second RB at 22 forces the Broncos' hand.

26. Houston—Luke Kuechly, LB, Boston College: Sometimes it's better to be lucky than good. Kuechly slips through the cracks and potentially makes the Texans the AFC's best defense.

27. New England (from New Orleans)—Harrison Smith, S, Notre Dame: When Mike Reiss of ESPN Boston, my most trusted voice on the Patriots beat, has Smith going to the Patriots in the first, I listen.

28. Green Bay—Kendall Reyes, DT, Connecticut: Ted Thompson bolsters the defensive line after whiffing on Mike Neal in the second two years ago. Dontari Poe would get some consideration here. Plenty of edge rushers to look at as OLB's opposite Clay Matthews. Reyes feels right, but this is a tough pick to call now that Shea McClellin is projected to go higher.

29. Baltimore—Stephen Hill, WR, Georgia Tech: How do you harness the power of the big arm of Joe Flacco? Give him the speediest pair of wide receivers in the league. Peter Konz would get a look here, as would Kevin Zeitler and Amini Silatolu.

30. San Francisco—Kevin Zeitler, OG, Wisconsin: This is a very hard pick to nail down. Rueben Randle, Amini Silatolu, Coby Fleener, Janoris Jenkins—any and all would make sense. Zeitler is the safest pick, and he can make the biggest contribution this year.

31. Indianapolis (from New England)—Coby Fleener, TE, Stanford: Mr. Luck, welcome to the NFL, here's one of your favorite targets to help the transition to the pros. The Colts are afraid of the Giants taking Fleener. The Pats trading out of one of their firsts seems more likely than them using both. 

32. New York Giants—Cordy Glenn, OL, Georgia: I'm not down on Glenn. He could easily go in the top 15. If he gets past the Cowboys and Bengals, a longer slide could be on. The Giants need offensive line help, and I think Glenn's versatility and upside will be appealing to Jerry Reese if he is there.

Notables that fall out of the first round: Nick Perry, DE/OLB, USC; Jonathan Martin, OT, Stanford; Dontari Poe, DT, Memphis; Devon Still, DT, Penn State; Jerel Worthy, DT, Michigan State; Peter Konz, C, Wisconsin