2012 NFL Mock Draft: Bold Risks Each Team Must Make

Fortune favors the bold, and this mock draft will focus on risks every team must take in the first round when the NFL draft finally kicks off on April 26, 2012.

While I'm not going to go off a cliff and paint players like Vontaze Burfict into the first-round picture, I am going to thoughtfully consider which players are worth the risk.

1. Indianapolis Colts: Andrew Luck, Quarterback, Stanford

Taking a quarterback at the top of the draft is always a risky proposition. Luck may be the best quarterback prospect we've seen since Peyton Manning, but there is always a chance he ends up like Ryan Leaf or JaMarcus Russell, too.

2. Washington Redskins: Robert Griffin III, Quarterback, Baylor

Ditto. Although RG3 is undoubtedly talented, history suggests at least one of these top two quarterbacks will fail in the NFL.

3. Minnesota Vikings: Morris Claiborne, Cornerback, LSU

Most mocks have them selecting offensive tackle Matt Kalil with this pick, and that would be the safest pick. They could surely use the help on their porous offensive line, and Kalil is one of the safest prospects in this class.

Playing against the Packers, Lions and Bears twice a year dictates that the Vikings need to upgrade their secondary, though, and they must take a risk here to land the best cornerback in the draft.

In my book, Claiborne is the best cornerback prospect to come out of college since Darrelle Revis.

While cornerbacks and offensive tackles are both crucial positions in today's NFL, there are serviceable tackles the Vikings could land in the second round and beyond.

4. Cleveland Browns: Michael Floyd, Wide Receiver, Notre Dame

The Browns need to upgrade their wide receiving corps. Floyd is the biggest boom/bust prospect at his position in this year's class, but his potential to boom is worth the risk.

5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Stephon Gilmore, Cornerback, South Carolina

Having missed out on the chance to snag Claiborne, the Bucs do the next-best thing and draft Gilmore—a player whose value has skyrocketed as the draft continues to draw near.

6. St. Louis Rams: Matt Kalil, Offensive Tackle, USC

The Rams need help across the board and could take Justin Blackmon or Fletcher Cox here, but they need to protect Sam Bradford or next season will be a repeat of their dismal 2011 campaign.

The risk they face by taking Kalil is that they'll miss out on the chance to land one of this year's top playmaking wide receivers.

7. Jacksonville Jaguars: Justin Blackmon, Wide Receiver, Oklahoma State

The Jaguars need to provide Blaine Gabbert with some weapons on the outside to give him a fighting chance to succeed in the NFL. Blackmon will have a chip on his shoulder after the Browns took Floyd over him and have a monster year as a rookie in 2012.

8. Miami Dolphins: Ryan Tannehill, Quarterback, Texas A&M

The Dolphins need to pull the trigger and draft Tannehill. He may not be ready to start right away, but at the very least he can start in 2013 and at the best he's ready to come in midway through the 2012 campaign.

9. Carolina Panthers: Dontari Poe, Defensive Tackle, Memphis

The Panthers had one of the worst run defenses in the league last year, and Poe, though raw and technically unsound, has the physique to become a dominant tackle in the years to come.

10. Buffalo Bills: Trent Richardson, Running Back, Alabama

The Bills may not appear to need a running back, but Fred Jackson—at 31 years of age—is coming off of a broken leg. C.J. Spiller isn't a true bell cow and is better suited as a change-of-pace back.

Richardson's addition to the Bills offense will open things up for Ryan Fitzpatrick and his talented receivers. He is a threat to go 80 yards for a touchdown every time he touches the ball, and teams will have to choose whether or not to focus on the run or keep men back in coverage.

If they choose to cover, Richardson will gash them. If they choose to play the run, Fitzpatrick will connect over the top of the defense with Steve Johnson or David Nelson.

It's a win-win, and the Bills would be foolish to pass on Richardson.

11. Kansas City Chiefs: Fletcher Cox, Defensive Tackle, Mississippi State

The Chiefs could easily take David DeCastro here and solidify their offensive line for the next decade, but they should look at their defense first and take Cox instead.

12. Seattle Seahawks: Luke Kuechly, Middle Linebacker, Boston College

The Seahawks find themselves without a viable option at this position after losing David Hawthorne to the New Orleans Saints via free agency. 

They will take Kuechly to fill that need instead of selecting a pass-rushing defensive end. The risk is that they will miss out on the top prospects at that position by taking Kuechly instead.

13. Arizona Cardinals: Riley Reiff, Offensive Tackle, Iowa

The Cardinals don't have a top-flight offensive tackle on their roster and Reiff will be an instant upgrade.

I have questions about his ability to play on the left side long term, though, due to his short arms and the fact that he struggles against powerful bull-rushers—not good considering the Cards play in the NFC West, home of Justin Smith and the San Francisco 49ers.

14. Dallas Cowboys: Janoris Jenkins, Cornerback, North Alabama

The Cowboys were terrible against the pass last year, despite the fact that DeMarcus Ware had another phenomenal year rushing the passer.

Jenkins, despite his troubled past, is supremely talented at covering wide receivers. He possesses fluid hips and can change direction as easily as a fish in the sea.

He is worth the risk, and if anyone were to take this risk in the first round it'd be Jerry Jones.

15. Philadelphia Eagles: Mark Barron, Safety, Alabama

Andy Reid could easily select one of the top remaining defensive tackles and be completely justified in doing so, but Barron is a unique player that can play both strong and free safety.

16. New York Jets: Shea McClellin, Outside Linebacker, Boise State

The Jets are high on Melvin Ingram, but they would be smart to select McClellin instead. He will end up being a better fit as an outside linebacker than Ingram, who'll thrive as a 4-3 defensive end.

17. Cincinnati Bengals: Dont'a Hightower, Middle Linebacker, Alabama

The Bengals need help in the secondary and on the interior of their offensive line, but they should not pass up on the opportunity to land a true thumper at the middle linebacker position to lead their defense.

18. San Diego Chargers: Whitney Mercilus, Outside Linebacker, Illinois

The Chargers could easily take an offensive lineman here, but they will be better off taking a pass-rushing outside linebacker to bolster what was an extremely weak unit last year.

Mercilus was a monster last year in college, but there is a huge risk that he could become another one-year wonder and fade out of the NFL within a few years due to the fact that he did only have one good year.

The Chargers need to take the risk, though, in the hopes that his 2011 campaign wasn't an aberration. If he pans out, they will have a dynamic duo with Mercilus and Shaun Phillips on the edge of their defense. 

19. Chicago Bears: Cordy Glenn, Offensive Guard/Tackle, Georgia

The Bears used a first-round pick last year to draft offensive tackle Gabe Carimi, but they need to select another one this year to ensure Jay Cutler doesn't end up on the bench at the end of the year. 

20. Tennessee Titans: David DeCastro, Offensive Tackle, Stanford

The Titans have a ton of other needs, including at the cornerback position, but they need to take a chance that they'll find a gem in the second round or beyond.

You can't let a guy like DeCastro fall any further than this, and they could certainly use the help in the inside of their offensive line. Chris Johnson will love this pick.

21. Cincinnati Bengals: Lamar Miller, Running Back, Miami

The Bengals need to add some speed to their backfield. Sure, they signed BenJarvus Green-Ellis, but he's not going to be a home-run threat. Miller was the fastest running back at the scouting combine, and his ability to catch the ball out of the backfield will come in handy as well.

22. Cleveland Browns: Brandon Weeden, Quarterback, Oklahoma State

The Browns aren't sure about Ryan Tannehill as a "franchise" quarterback and wouldn't risk their No. 4 overall pick to land him, but they won't be afraid to take a gamble on Weeden here at the bottom half of the first round.

23. Detroit Lions: Melvin Ingram, Defensive End, South Carolina

The Lions have other needs. They really need to bolster their secondary, but one of the best ways to make your secondary better is by providing a ferocious pass-rush up front. 

Cliff Avril and the Lions are at a standstill right now in their contract negotiations. Ingram will provide insurance against Avril and will ultimately develop into Kyle Vanden Bosch's replacement.

24. Pittsburgh Steelers: Jonathan Martin, Offensive Tackle, Stanford

The Steelers are in desperate need of help on their offensive line. Ben Roethlisberger can't continue to take big hit after big hit and be expected to survive—let alone thrive.

Martin isn't as good as Kalil, but he's no slouch. He should start from day one.

25. Denver Broncos: Stephen Hill, Wide Receiver, Georgia Tech

The Broncos are already going to be dangerous on offense in 2012. With Peyton Manning running the show and Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker on the outside they'll be hard to stop.

Add Hill to the mix and we may be witnessing an unstoppable force. Sure, the kid is raw, but so was Pierre Garcon when he came into the league.

Manning has a way of making players around him better. His attention to detail rubs off, and they either thrive or they're cut loose. 

Hill has the kind of size/speed ratio that Calvin Johnson has, and if he pans out he'll become one of the league's elite playmakers.

26. Houston Texans: Coby Fleener, Tight End, Stanford

Fleener is one of the hottest names out there right now. He is fast and has good hands, and he should be a good fit for the Texans.

The big risk involved with him is that he's kind of a 'tweener. He isn't really a wide receiver and he doesn't block well enough to be an in-line tight end. Houston will find a way to use him, one way or another.

27. New England Patriots: Kendall Wright, Wide Receiver, Baylor

The Patriots have won without the benefit of a big-time receiver, but we have also seen what they're capable of accomplishing with Randy Moss on the roster. 

Wright may not be in the same class as a healthy, motivated Moss, but he will give them a deadly weapon to combine with their two elite tight ends.

28. Green Bay Packers: Doug Martin, Running Back, Boise State

The Packers need help on defense, for sure, but imagine how potent their offense could become in 2012 with the added benefit of a top-level running back...

29. Baltimore Ravens: Quinton Coples, Defensive End, North Carolina

The Ravens could easily choose center Peter Konz here, but Coples has dropped far enough. They don't need him, per say, but he could become a terror opposite Terrell Suggs in the years to come.

30. San Francisco 49ers: Michael Brockers, Defensive Tackle, LSU

The 49ers will look long and hard at Konz and his teammate at Wisconsin Kevin Zeitler to fortify their offensive line, but in the end they'll take the best player available. 

Brockers can play all across the line for the 49ers, and he will give their already loaded defense a shot of adrenaline when he's on the field.

31. New England Patriots: Harrison Smith, Safety, Notre Dame

The Patriots have gotten by on scrubs and wide receivers in years past to man their secondary, and it's about time they took a safety in the first round to improve the overall talent of that group.

32. New York Giants: Vinny Curry, Defensive End, Marshall

The Giants could sure use some help on their offensive line, but they have a habit of falling in love with pass-rushing defensive ends. Curry comes from a small school but will become a big-time player for them in the years to come.

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