Fantasy Baseball 2012: Adjusted Home-Run Projections for MLB Leaders

AccuScore, a company that specializes in thorough game simulations, has made a few on-the-fly revisions to its seasonal projections. These 35 power hitters, based on AccuScore estimates, will finish the 2012 campaign with at least 24 home runs:

1. Jose Bautista, Blue Jays—40
2. Josh Hamilton, Rangers—33
3. Albert Pujols, Angels—32
4. Matt Kemp, Dodgers—32
5. Curtis Granderson, Yankees—32
6. Prince Fielder, Tigers—31
7. Paul Konerko, White Sox—31
8. Mark Teixeira, Yankees—31
9, Mark Reynolds, Orioles—30

Breakdown

Hamilton (eight HRs, .408 batting) may not win the home-run title, but he also won't lose the crown by eight homers. He's well on his way to monster numbers in all but one category (steals).

I'll buy AccuScore's relentless faith in Pujols to break his current power drought and finish among the top 10 by season's end. But I won't subscribe to the notion that Mark Reynolds' wretched slump (zero HRs, .125 batting) can be rectified with a surge of homers. Unfortunately, he's a better candidate for 15 than 30.

Kemp may be having an April for the ages (nine HRs, 22 RBI, 18 runs), but he still might finish below last year's marks in homers and steals. Maybe that's a fair trade-off for sporting a .460 batting average, .514 OBP and 1.466 OPS right now.

10. Mike Napoli, Rangers—29
11. Nelson Cruz, Rangers—29
12. Adrian Beltre, Rangers—29
13. Miguel Cabrera, Tigers—28
14. Ryan Braun, Brewers—28
15. Corey Hart, Brewers—28
16. Dan Uggla, Braves—27
17. Giancarlo Stanton, Marlins—27
18. Jason Kipnis, Indians—27
19. Troy Tulowitzki, Rockies—27
20. Jay Bruce, Reds—27
21. David Ortiz, Red Sox—26
22. Carlos Gonzalez, Rockies—26
23. Joey Votto, Reds—26

Breakdown

Given Stanton's chronic knee soreness, I would gladly take 27 homers. In fact, I wouldn't even consider trading him if that were a realistic estimate. I had high hopes for Stanton heading into the season, thinking 40 homers was a reasonable threshold. But things change.

I'm not surprised that four Rangers (Hamilton, Napoli, Beltre, Cruz) are listed in the top 12—but I am shocked to see Ian Kinsler omitted from the list. There's nothing about Kinsler's great start (four HRs, 11 RBI, 17 runs, .282 average) that screams 23 homers or less by season's end.

The AccuScore computers must not have accounted for the 30-day window when Tulowitzki gets hot and subconsciously dominates hitters. That's not to say 27 homers is an underwhelming figure—I just think Tulo (two HRs, .296 batting) will reach the 30-HR plateau for the third time in four years.

24. Evan Longoria, Rays—25
25. Adrian Gonzalez, Red Sox—25
26. Nick Swisher, Yankees—25
27. Carlos Pena, Rays—25
28. Yoenis Cespedes, Athletics—25
29. Josh Willingham, Twins—25
30. Adam Lind, Blue Jays—25
31. Robinson Cano, Yankees—24
32. Matt Holliday, Cardinals—24
33. Carlos Quentin, Padres—24
34. Lance Berkman, Cardinals—24
35. Brett Lawrie, Blue Jays—24

Breakdown

Quentin (knee) will soon rejoin the Padres after a few rehab starts in the minors. That means his window for 24 homers will essentially be May 5 to September 30. I'd like 2008 Quentin's chances in that department—but the 2012 version, playing in spacious Petco Park, doesn't seem like a good bet for even 20.

Extrapolated over a 153-game season, Cespedes (four HRs, 21 strikeouts) is on pace for 36 home runs, 36 steals and 189 strikeouts with the A's. That would be one amazing rite of fantasy passage for the 26-year-old rookie. It would even be more efficient than Mark Reynolds' 44-homer/24-steal campaign in 2009.

Given Carlos Pena's red-hot start (three HRs, 12 RBI, 11 runs, .304 batting), it would be a mild disappointment to see him finish with only 25 homers this year. But you can't blame AccuScore for taking a conservative tack on a lifetime .240 hitter (beautiful swing and all). And you couldn't blame fantasy owners for chanting two big words after reading this breakdown: Sell high.

Jay Clemons can be reached on Twitter, day or night, at @ATL_JayClemons.