Buffalo Bills 2012 NFL Draft Strategy: Value Should Be the Name of the Game

The Buffalo Bills are in an interesting position where their free-agent splashes and the early success the team enjoyed in 2012 have created the feeling that the team can win now if it gets its draft picks right.

With 10 picks, the Bills will have plenty of chances, but they have quite a few positions where they could stand to upgrade: cornerback, offensive tackle, linebacker and of course, wide receiver.

Bills general manager Buddy Nix has done remarkably well in the draft over his three years with the team, and one more solid draft could put the team right where it needs to be for the next decade.

What can we expect them to do, and what should they do?

Trends Suggest Cornerback in First Two Rounds, No Wide Receiver Until Later

Since Nix took over as Bills GM in 2009, the team has drafted three defensive linemen, two offensive linemen, two defensive backs (a cornerback and a safety) and a running back in the first two rounds. 

The Bills have hit on their picks in the secondary—safety Jairus Byrd and cornerback Aaron Williams, both of whom were second-round picks. They clearly value the position enough to target those players high and should look to do so once again with a cornerback corps that is getting a little long in the tooth and short on the production.

Many are projecting a wide receiver to the Bills with the 10th-overall pick, and while that may make sense from a need standpoint, it doesn't make sense from a Buddy Nix school of team building standpoint. Nix worked under A.J. Smith with the Chargers from 2001-08, when the team selected just three wide receivers in the first two rounds of the draft: Reche Caldwell in the second round in '02, Vincent Jackson in the second round in '05 and Craig Davis in the first round '07.

The Bills have been projected to draft a wide receiver high, namely Notre Dame's Michael Floyd. Under Buddy Nix, though, the Bills haven't drafted a single wide receiver higher than the fourth round. They also know firsthand the talent that can be found elsewhere, with Stevie Johnson (seventh round) and David Nelson (undrafted).

There's a first time for everything, but history speaks to the Bills looking for value at wide receiver in later rounds. What's more, wide receiver is considered one of the deepest positions in the draft by Wes Bunting of National Football Post.

Trading Down a Possibility

With all that said, there's no rule against the Bills trading down. They already have 10 picks in the draft, so it's not as though they need to stockpile more, but they could afford to add more picks for 2013, where they currently have their original seven picks.

They also feel as though they could get similar value later on.

According to CBS Sports Rapid Reporter Mark Ludwiczak, Nix said, "You probably would say this year's a little better for (trading down) because there's more equal guys. ...You might get the same guy from 10-20 that you get from 1-10."

The Bills haven't historically traded down, but they could do so this year, with the new draft slotting process making it less costly to move up.

My Advice: Value the Player, Not the Position

Many will look at the Bills lack of playmaking threats at receiver as a sign that the team needs to add a dynamic wide receiver first and think about everything else later. 

History has shown us that investing big dollars and high picks in the wide receiver position does little to help a team's chances at a Super Bowl, and that even includes teams that are a "wide receiver away" like the Bills are.

This year's draft would seem to lend itself to that thought process, where the top talent at wide receiver stands alone while exhibiting some flaws and the depth in the draft class has a lot of upside in its own right.

Between cornerback, offensive tackle, wide receiver and linebacker, there are enough positions of need that the Bills can safely afford to take the best available player regardless of what position he plays.

With that being said, the Bills need to value the upside of a player over the position. How do the third- and fourth-ranked offensive tackles and cornerbacks compare to the potential of the first- and second-ranked receivers? This is the question that will be floated around the draft room, and from this perspective, the Bills should look at the career trajectory of the players they select over the position they play.

Whether the trajectory of guys like Floyd and Blackmon is great enough to warrant a top-10 pick is for them to decide.

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