Texas Rangers: Why Yu Darvish Will Fail to Win 10 Games in 2012

Texas Rangers starting pitcher Yu Darvish has won two of his first three games, but don't get your hopes up—he's not going to make it to 10 wins.

At least not this year.

So far, he's pitched decently. He's 2-0 with a 3.57 ERA and 1.81 WHIP. But in 17.2 innings and 333 batters faced, Darvish has allowed 19 hits and seven earned runs. That's just under 20 pitches per inning.

Even more concerning, he has 13 walks to 14 strikeouts, and opposing batters are hitting .268.

Two hit batters and three wild pitches in three starts is also a bit concerning.

Still, Yu Darvish will have several quality years during his MLB career. 2012 just won't be one of them.

Here are the factors working against him this season.

History Points More Toward Failing

In December 2011, TheBaseballPage.com wrote a fantastic piece comparing all of the pitchers who have switched from Nippon Professional Baseball to Major League Baseball. The piece aims to quiet any comparisons of Darvish to the rest due to a lack of sample size. But it also points out an alarming fact.

Per TheBaseballPage.com:

"

Just three pitchers who made the jump from Nippon Professional Baseball have had more than two seasons in the major leagues in which they have been worth two or more wins above replacement (roughly the value of a league-average starting pitcher over a single season) according to Baseball-Reference’s WAR. Furthermore, only a dozen have managed more than 2.0 bWAR over their entire major league careers.

"

Let's look at the three of the best Japanese-born pitchers, starting with Tomo Ohka.

Ohka didn't get double-digit wins until his fourth year in the league. In fact, in his first three seasons combined, he won just seven games. In a 10-year career, Ohka won more than 10 games only three times.

Daisuke Matsuzaka had much better success, at least for his first two seasons. At 26 years old, he won 15 games. The next year, he won 18.

The 2007 and 2008 Boston Red Sox were both fantastic teams. Every guy on the roster produced at a high level. Granted, if the 2012 Texas Rangers continue lighting up offensive statistics and providing massive leads, this could be a moot point.

Regardless, Matsuzaka had 32 chances to reach double-digit wins in 2007. Even with good stuff and the "unknown factor," he carried a 4.40 ERA. Of course, with today's advanced scouting, you can bet that no one in Major League Baseball is truly unknown.

Hideo Nomo is one of the more well-known Japanese pitchers. In his first year, he nailed down 13 wins. He did it with a 2.54 ERA and 236 strikeouts. With great stuff, he barely earned over 10 wins.

That's two examples of success in a case of more than two dozen.

I've shown you that his stats so far might not be as good as they appear. I've also provided some stats on his predecessors.

There are a few small factors that will mess with Darvish's head too. The keyword here is small. But added up, they can have enough of an effect to create a difference between 10 wins and nine.

It's the Small Things

First and foremost, the pressure Yu Darvish faces in 2012 is immense. Consider this: The Rangers paid over $100 million for the rights to negotiate and sign him to a contract.

The Rangers have been to back-to-back World Series appearances, losing both. In the offseason, the team also lost its ace, C.J. Wilson. In his place, they signed Darvish.

So, not only does he have to live up to the hefty amount of money spent, Darvish must also take over as the face of the starting rotation and get the team further than the two years prior. Those are lofty expectations for a 25-year-old who hasn't ever pitched in the MLB before.

Second, the AL West—and the American League in general—has some pretty good power hitters. Albert Pujols suits up with the Los Angeles Angels. He's surrounded by guys like Kendry Morales and Mark Trumbo. The Seattle Mariners have high-quality hitters in Ichiro Suzuki and Jesus Montero. Even the Oakland Athletics boast the services of slugger Yoenis Cespedes.

Outside of the AL West, Darvish will face rosters stocked with stars, especially in the AL East.

Right now, the Rangers are in the thick of a series with the Detroit Tigers. Afterward, they finish April against the Yankees, Rays and Blue Jays.

May will be brutal.

Lastly, the weather also factors in, albeit barely for those of you shaking your head in utter disbelief that I just went there. In Sapporo, Japan, the average weather in August is 79 degrees with no humidity. The average in Arlington, Texas is around 94.5 degrees with humidity. Though a minuscule point, it's an adjustment Darvish will have to make fast.

To make it to 10 wins, Darvish has to overcome the heat, the massive pressure, the rugged schedule and his own command.

Good luck.