Fantasy Baseball: Josh Johnson, Alex Gordon and Other Buy-Low Trade Candidates

Even the best poker players will get nervous when they think their hand is a dog. True to their nature, they will do their best to win the pot, regardless. But if another player gives them any sort of viable reason, the poker player will gladly get out of the hand.

Fantasy sports are very similar in this respect. Right now, owners of players who are struggling are (perhaps rightfully) nervous. Good fantasy players will know better than to just cut a well-regarded player just because of a slow start. It does happen, but not often.

What you want to do is give other owners a reason to fold their hand. For example, I was offered Ryan Dempster straight up for Tim Lincecum in a redraft league. I didn't particularly like the offer, but it wasn't insane or insulting. Most likely for the other owner, it was his starting point. I could've asked for something else, but I'm trying to trade FOR Lincecum on the cheap, not trade him away for less than I would consider his worth.

We need to target players who we think will bounce back from bad (or terrible) starts. The object here is to trade for a player when his value is at his absolute lowest.

Ideally, you would want to be trading away a player when his value is at his highest, but it doesn't work that way very often. Just make sure that you're not trading away anything that will significantly hurt your team at any position or in a certain category.

Don't ever make an offer so bad that it actually insults another owner. You don't have to start with your best offer (in fact, don't), but start at the ground floor, not in the sub-basement. Including a note or offering multiple iterations of the same trade can also be helpful.

Now that we've gotten all of that straight, who are some players that we should be targeting in trades?

BATTERS (POS - TEAM)

ALEX GORDON (OF, KC) - Gordon is off to a very slow start, batting only .140 to go with three runs, four RBI and only one home run. Is Gordon going to replicate his numbers from last year? Other than batting average, I would say yes. There is a reason that Gordon was a fifth-round pick on average this season. He will offer a nice combination of power and speed. His value will never be lower—in fact, he's really picked up the pace over the last week or so.

KEVIN YOUKILIS (3B - BOS) - You can't expect Youkilis in-his-prime numbers, but he'll be much better than this. So will the rest of the Red Sox. This slow start is not at all surprising. You can probably wait a few weeks and still acquire Youkilis on the cheap, but his value is at its lowest point right now.

GIANCARLO STANTON (OF - MIA) - His knee injury could be troublesome. But we're talking about a player with some of the best power in the majors, who was a second- or third-round pick in most leagues this season. Players like this are almost never available at anything less than the sticker price. I wouldn't hesitate to trade for him, I'll deal with the injury for a while if I must.

FREDDIE FREEMAN (1B - ATL) - You're never going to get as much power as you would want from a 1B out of Freeman. But everything else should be there. After a very slow start, Freeman has gone 4-for-8 with three runs, one HR and five RBI in his last two games. He shouldn't cost much and he should be a consistent option for you this season.

IKE DAVIS (1B - NYM) - The injury risks (notably Valley Fever) have seemed to subside for now. Davis has started to find his groove with three HR in his last four games. His value will be on the upswing, so now would be the time to make an offer if you need help at 1B.

PITCHERS (POS - TEAM)

JOSH JOHNSON (SP - MIA) - There will always be some injury-related risk associated with Johnson, and rightly so. But he has a tremendous amount of potential and some hiccups were expected considering Johnson hadn't pitched a game in almost a year. The window to buy low will be closing soon, so now is you chance.

TIM LINCECUM (SP - SF) - We've seen Lincecum go into the tank for a few games before. Never usually quite this bad or this early in the season, but there is some precedence here. The K/BB rate is still fine and even if Lincecum isn't quite as good as he has been in the past, he'll still help your fantasy team.

ADAM WAINWRIGHT (SP - STL) - Considering Wainwright missed all of last season after undergoing Tommy John surgery, shouldn't a slow start have been expected? Wainwright's great spring training might have thrown us off the scent, but its also proof that Wainwright will dominate again, hopefully sooner rather than later.

MAX SCHERZER (SP - DET) - Maybe the light will never come on for Scherzer to become the fantasy ace we all thought he could be. But he's still pretty decent and should be an excellent source of strikeouts and—most likely—wins. After a terrible first start, Scherzer struck out 11 in six innings against the White Sox while only walking one batter.

MATT MOORE (SP - TB) - The bloom is off of the rose a bit with Moore right now. And that can only be a good thing for you. The strikeouts are there; Moore has just struggled with his control so far. He can (and will) get that under control. The price to acquire him will never be lower.

Thanks for reading. If you have anything to add or any questions, please use the comments below. Good luck this season.

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