Miami Dolphins 2012 NFL Draft: Drafting Tannehill Early Is a Big Mistake

On almost every mock draft there are four selections that seem to have been determined already; Andrew Luck to the Colts, Robert Griffin III to the Rams, Matt Kalil to the Vikings and Ryan Tannehill to the Dolphins. Which one of these stands out to you?

Now we all know that Miami has been desperate for a quarterback since Dan Marino, but is reaching for converted wide receiver really the answer? The simple answer is no, and the reasons should be obvious.

Firstly, let's look at Miami's offensive situation. Between Reggie Bush and Daniel Thomas, running back is sorted, Jake Long is an all pro tackle on a decent offensive line who could use some upgrades, Miami traded its only decent receiver for two third-round picks, and Matt Moore is quarterback.

Out of all four of those situations, receiver is the biggest problem not quarterback. People can piss and moan about Matt Moore all they want but last year his numbers were pretty damn good for a Miami Dolphins quarterback.

Sixteen touchdowns, nine interceptions, 2,497 yards and a 87.1 quarterback rating. Considering that Miami was a run first team and had only one reliable receiver those a good numbers. Naturally now that Brandon Marshall is gone those numbers will fall, but that's even more reason to draft Michael Floyd or Justin Blackmon if they slip to pick eight.

Now let's look at Ryan Tannehill as a prospect:

Everyone agrees that Ryan Tannehill is project player, he will require one to two years learning on the bench before he can even take a snap. He has had only one and a half years experience as a starter at the college level. He has a huge arm but trouble making decisions and reading defenses. He is quite athletic but not to the level of most wide receiver converts.

Does he sound like a top ten pick to anyone?

The fact is Tannehill is only being talked about as a top-10 pick because USC's Matt Barkley, and Oklahoma's Landry Jones decided to stay in school for another year. So why not wait?

A lot of comparing has gone on between Tannehill's situation and Aaron Rodgers situation, but don't be fooled, Tannehill is as close to being Matt Jones as he is Aaron Rodgers.

Everyone is saying Miami "needs" to make this pick, and I can't fathom why. Brandon Marshall has left, the next best receiver is Anthony Fasano, and let's face it, the defense is less than stellar. Yes, quarterback is the most important on the field, but when you have a young quarterback (Matt Moore is only 27) who is doing a decent job, do you really need to reach this much for an incredibly risky player especially when you have bigger needs? If Miami trade down 10 picks than selecting Tannehill is acceptable (not great but acceptable).

Last year Miami won six of its last nine games; the Dolphins are already getting better, and there is no need to invest such a high pick in a player who won't see a snap for two years. The team has bigger needs and players available at that pick that could contribute immediately.

The worst case scenario of not drafting Tannehill is Matt Moore flops and the whole team sucks for the whole year, and then they get a shot at drafting Matt Barkley or Landry Jones. The worst case scenario of drafting Tannehill is Miami gets its own JaMarcus Russell.

It's to big a risk at pick No. 8.