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Week 2 Fantasy Baseball Revelations: National League

Jay ClemonsJun 2, 2018

1. They say that no man is a fantasy island...but Matt Kemp's giving it a shot.

Kemp is neither the first star to enjoy a scalding-hot start to a season (six home runs, 16 RBI, 13 runs, one steal, .487 batting, 1.548 OPS) nor be extra-motivated to right the wrong of an MVP "snub" from the year before...it just seems like it.

How good has Kemp been this month? I'm starting to think his No. 3 overall ranking in March was a mild injustice, even though (No. 1) Miguel Cabrera should have 1B-3B eligibility by April 25 and (No. 2) Albert Pujols is probably the greatest hitter of this century.

Bottom line: In a season that's already full of fantasy surprises and impressive runs, no one can match the Dodgers' output. It's not even close.

Regarding trade value, unless Owner B is willing to surrender two hitting stars (like Robinson Cano, Andrew McCutchen) and one strong pitcher (in the class of Ian Kennedy, C.J. Wilson or Matt Garza), it's probably not worth your time to consider any deals at this point. Kemp's fantasy shadow simply looms too large right now to fit into a 2-for-1 proposal—short of Owner B offering a megastar from Round 1 (Cabrera/Pujols/Jose Bautista) and superstar pitcher from Round 2 (Justin Verlander, Clayton Kershaw).

Even that may be one-sided.

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2. Matt Cain deserves your utmost respect in trade talks.

Well, so much for the worries that Cain's new $100 million contract would change his approach to pitching or alter his on-the-mound demeanor. After just two games, Cain (1-0, 3.00 ERA, 0.60 WHIP, 15/2 K-BB) has quickly emerged as a fantasy ace who should never be benched in weekly leagues or treated as a throw-in with blockbuster trades. Sure, Cain (.135 opponents' batting average) may never possess 230-strikeout upside like Kershaw, CC Sabathia or Tim Lincecum, but his prospective greatness in four categories should be enough to finish as a top-15 starting asset by season's end, if not higher.

That confidence should be reflected in early trade discussions. Don't get overwhelmed or sidetracked by a fellow owner's arguments that Cain has never tallied 15 wins, 200 strikeouts or five complete games in a season. All three thresholds will be reached by Sept. 30...and Owner B knows that. Otherwise, why would he/she be sending you trial-balloon offers via email every other day?

If you're going to trade Cain at the supposed top end of the bubble, simply ask for the moon—and expect the stars.

3. Jordan Schafer owners should buckle up this season...it's going to be a bumpy ride.

The fact that Schafer (an undrafted commodity in just about every mixed draft on the planet last month) warrants mention in April revelations is a feat unto itself; but that's what happens after stealing five bases in a 48-hour window and then tantalizing fantasy owners with a .405 on-base percentage. Some will abandon previously air-tight draft strategies and overhaul their bench core to land a possible difference-maker in steals (and maybe runs).

Can Schafer, one of baseball's most heralded prospects just a few years ago, steal 40 bases for the up-and-coming Astros? Sure. But there's also a 0.0-percent chance that he keeps the OBP over .400. His track record suggests Schafer is more Mark Reynolds than Shane Victorino—minus the power. But then again, fantasy owners don't really care about ERA, WHIP and wins when acquiring closers...so maybe Schafer's peripherals, power numbers and high strikeout rate are similarly irrelevant. Maybe it's all about the steals chase.

4. Let's exercise patience when evaluating Adam Wainwright's comeback from elbow surgery.

The ace's un-Wainwrightian start to the season (0-2, 11.42 ERA, 1.62 WHIP, three home runs allowed, 11 runs in just 8.2 innings) has raised some eyebrows, but he also showed across-the-board improvement from his first to second start; and that kind of progress leads me to believe he'll fulfill his top-20 potential by season's end, assuming full health. In other words, Wainwright's superb spring (2-0, 1.45 ERA, 0.91 WHIP) was no accident, no illusion to how long he must come to recover from last year's Tommy John surgery.

On the flip side, Wainwright may potentially be one more wretched start away from becoming trade fodder; and when that occurs, fantasy owners should pursue him with full force—as a No. 3 starting pitcher.

Therein lies the beauty of fantasy baseball: Most draft-day errors can be rectified by simply taking advantage of others' new mistakes.

Jay Clemons can be reached on Twitter, day or night, at @ATL_JayClemons.

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